Lillard named ROM for 3rd straight month

This Carlito guy is a trip huh? Calls me out and when I question him on it, disappears.

Hey Mr. Chakalaka, when are we racing our cars? I think I can take you in that slow american hot rod!

 

We went there. My son got a Sykart gift card for a birthday present, pretty cool place.

 

I thought I posted this last Friday, but it didn't go through. So, I'll try again.

Perhaps Monty is just doing what every other coach in the league tries to do - win enough games to keep his job. I'm not sure why, but the more Davis plays, the more the Hornets lose.

I posted this in another thread last week:

It's also interesting that, according to 82games.com, that Davis out produces his individual opponent (+4.5), but his team does worse when he's in the game (-4.5). Lillard has less of an edge on his individual opponent (+2.3), but has a HUGE positive impact on his team's performance (+10.8 - tied for 10th in the league among players who have started at least 20 games).

The fact that the Hornets, as a team, are -4.5 per 48 when Davis is on the court may explain why they lose at such an alarming rate as his PT increases

Now, here's the part I meant to post, and I haven't seen any one else comment on this trend:

When Anthony Davis plays more than 27 minutes in a game, the New Orleans Hornets are a truly pathetic 3-19. That's a .136 winning percentage. When Davis plays less than 27 minutes, or not at all, the Hornets are a much more respectable 12-14 (.462 winning percentage).

That's a HUGE discrepancy in winning percentages. I haven't watched NOH enough, or looked at enough data to try to figure out what's going on, but perhaps Monty has noticed this too and is limiting Davis' PT in an effort to win more games. Maybe he noticed that the Hornets played better as a team when Davis was injured.

I'm not not saying that Davis sucks. He obviously has talent, but for whatever reason, he sure isn't helping his team win many games right now.

BNM

 

It's called the Hornets are 9-9 in games Eric Gordon plays in

6-24 in games he doesn't play in

 

Sorry, I don't see what this has to do with the Hornets losing more when Davis plays more that 27 minutes.

Davis has played in all 18 games Gordon has played in, but he's only played 27 or more minutes in 7 of those games. In those 7 games, the Hornets are 1-6 (.143). In the games Gordon played in, and Davis played less than 27 minutes, they are 8-3 (.727).

Yes, they win more games, in general, when Gordon plays, but their winning percentage when Davis plays more than 27 minutes changes very little, with (.143) or without (.136) Gordon. The fact remains, when Anthony Davis plays more than 27 minutes, the New Orleans Hornets lose about 86% of the time. Maybe that's why Monty is reluctant to play him big minutes.

Does nobody else find it compelling that the Hornets lose at such a high rate when Davis plays more? If you were his coach and noticed this trend, wouldn't you be inclined to play him less in order to save you job? Not bench him, he's the No. 1 pick after all, but limit his play to 20 - 24 minutes if it increases chance of winning more games.

BNM

 

What's the correlation between Davis' and Rivers' playing time? That would be interesting to see.

 

BTW, the Blazers are 24-23 when Damian Lillard plays more than 27 minutes. He's actually played at least 30 minutes in every game. They are also 15-10 when Lillard plays more than 38 minutes. It seems Lillard playing big minutes has a net positive impact on the Blazers chances to win, while Davis plying big minutes has a definite negative impact on the Hornets odds of winning.

Maybe that's why Lillard plays the big minutes and wins Rookie of the Month and Davis doesn't.

BNM

 

Davis is pretty talented and has a good understanding of help D for a rookie, but the Hornets are pretty limited with him on the floor becuase offensively he's more of a center in the way about 90% of his offense is set up from teammates or off of putbacks, but defensively he gets muscled around 1 on 1 by big power forwards let alone true centers. Combined with an offensively talented PF in Anderson who stretches the D, and a true C in Lopez who's having a pretty decent year on the roster and I think like BNM said Monty is just playing the lineups that win as opposed to worrying about getting his top pick minutes and numbers at the expense of the team.

 

Not sure. That's a lot of data to analyse. It's true Rivers sucks, but in games he plays over 27 minutes, the Hornets are 5-12 (.294). Not spectacular, but more than twice as good as Davis' 3-19 (.136).

BNM

 

BTW, Rivers has seen his PT cut (understandably so) since Eric Gordon has come back. He hasn't played more than 23 minutes in any game Gordon has appeared in. And as I showed above, with or without Gordon, the Hornets lose at a similar rate when Davis plays big minutes. I'd have to go back and look at box scores, but that leads me to believe Rivers' PT has no appreciable impact on the Hornets abysmal winning percentage when Davis plays more than 27 minutes. When Davis plays big minutes, the Hornets lose about 86% of their games, whether he's playing with Rivers or Gordon.

BNM

 

And the teams they played in that 1-5 record

@ CHA - W
ATL - L
@ NKY - L
GSW - L
@ SAS - L
@ DEN - L

That's being very selective. Those teams are much better than them and should beat them.

 

Well, the fact is just about every team in the league is much better than the Hornets and should beat them. Again: 3-19 when Davis plays more than 27 minutes. 12-14 when he doesn't.

BNM

 

8-7 when Gordon plays

7-26 when he doesn't

3-10 when neither plays

Plus the fact in the stats you provided there's a clear difference in schedules.

 

Damian's backups are so abysmal and below replacement level that it's absolutely no surprise that the team plays better (and wins more) the more he plays. Just with the eyeball test you can literally see the offense grind to a halt with him out of the game.

 

Oh, I agree completely. I totally understand why Lillard gets so many minutes.

But, what I want to know is why you think Davis isn't getting comparable minutes. He was the No. 1 pick after all. Should be the future of the franchise. So, why is he only averaging 28.6 MPG and only 24.8 MPG in January?

BNM

 

No idea, haven't watched a single Hornets game all year. My disbelief with Monty had more to do with not understanding how a coach could play a number one pick as little as he is.