What if this is Lillard's ceiling?

I haven't looked at his numbers, but he looks as if is is putting out a little more effort on defense, and is able to stay in front of his man a bit more

 

People used to say the same things about Roy his rookie year. And he went from a solid starter to a perennial all star as his career progressed.

 

That doesn't mean that it's preordained that Lillard will get leaps and bounds better though. He might (and that would be awesome) but he might not (and that's OK too I suppose).

The thing that bodes well for Lillard is that he appears to be driven to be great and as the season has progressed so has he in subtle ways (slightly better on D, a little more judicious with the three point bombs, a little more driving tot he hoop). So even if his ceiling isn't All-NBA 1st or 2nd team down the line, he'll get at least a little better and probably has a few All-star appearances in him at some point.

 

Agreed; let's be sure: I don't think he's near his ceiling. The most clear indication to me is that he's still performing well even though he's the focus of defenses, an automatic double basically from the second he hits half court, and still manages to find ways to break through and score, pass, and rebound like he did before he was scouted so heavily. That means he's improving as quickly as defenses are improving around him.

He's like a bacteria, evolving his game to stay alive, and the faster teams try new defensive schemes on him, the faster he'll improve. Soon, he'll have mastered them all, and will be unstoppable. Already teams are being scorched by forcing him right, which was a common scouting reaction ("he likes to go left, send him right"). Other than sending your two most mobile defenders against him on the top-of-the-key pick that LA sets, there's not much he can't already handle with ease. If we had players who could set better picks, we'd have that problem solved already, but letting Lillard learn and improve under less than perfect situations is even better.

 

@damianlillard on the cover of this Month's Dime Magazine. First national cover for Dame!

 

Stone Cold.

 

Awesome. When was the last time a Blazer made a cover? I'm assuming it was either Roy or Oden.

I love seeing all the hype, as that's what gets refs to make the superstar calls.

His single biggest statistical improvement should be FTA's. If we can get a good backup PG, Lillard will have the luxury of knowing he can sit out a few minutes after getting knocked down. Then you add in the learning curve in the NBA (quickly identifying when a softy like Dirk is around the rim), the superstar calls, and the increasing use of Batum as the setup man. Everything points to him spending a lot more time looking to draw contact as he gets older.

 

That's what I'm saying. Just highlighting how we shouldn't be too quick in writing off any potential improvement from Dame.

 

Dame has all the makings of a superstar. I think he will be a west starter at least once in his career.

 

Or change the question this way, "If we didnt have a PG and we had plenty of free agent money to spend and Lillard was an unrestricted free agent, how much would you be willing to offer him?"

 

Oden was on the cover of ESPN mag, too.

 

Probably not max as a rookie with no All-Star game birth (yet) but a heck of a lot. 10 to 11 MIL a year.

 

I'm old enough to remember when EVERY player drafted was a 4-year college player, and almost all of them got better during their careers.

Sidney Wicks was one notable exception.

 

John Wooden players slowly deteriorated in the NBA, as they unlearned his coaching.

 

That was my basic point in the Ed O debate. It's a fairly recent expectation that good players leave early. The fact that someone doesn't leave early tells us absolutely nothing of certainty about their career trajectory. It's only in hindsight that you can determine whether they fit the norm.

 

all things being equal, younger is better

that said, older can be pretty damn good as well

 

You said, "TEND to be. I use words for a reason." In the "Lillard Wars" thread, you absolutely refused to accept that Lillard had star potential, purely on the basis that he played 4 years of college and had little room to improve. So, no, I have no idea what you've been typing for the past 20 years, but I do know that your "tend to be" and carefully chosen words are complete bullshit in light of what you typed just a few months ago. Nice try.

 

Given Rasta's thread, this seems a legit question again...


...if this is Lillard's ceiling, and he maintains exactly this level of play, what is your opinion of him?