Hope we don't make the same mistake with Leonard as we did with Jermaine...

Leonard is more athletic, but to say Mihm was not athletic is untrue . Their games are similar


Just as Leonard's and Frye's games are similar

 

Oh OK, can't argue with that. Your opinion is your opinion. Just wanted to make sure you understood the difference between a strength and a weakness.

I asked it previously and no one responded, so I'll ask it again. What exactly are the expectations for Leonard? Is a starter who averages 10/6.5/1.3 four or five years down the road enough to shake the bust label for an 11th pick? If not, what would be?

BNM

 

Best case? I would love to see him develop into Tyson Chandler.

Realistically I'm hoping for Joel Przybilla 2.0, but I'm bracing for another bust.

 

I hate thinking 10/6/1.3 is what we should expect from a lottery pick in 4-5 years. But people have posted numbers showing that would be ok. Yuck, no matter who it is. To me, and apparently me alone, those numbers would signify a failure on the Blazers part to land a starter in the lottery.....which I think you have to do, or it is a missed pick. Sebastian Telfair averaged 9/6 in his 4th year. To me he was a missed pick by Portland

 

I agree. I'll say, it's likely we all tend to have unrealistic expectations for lottery picks, but I think you go in getting a top 12, whatever, pick, and you're banking on those picks being a big part of your core going forward. Getting an average player out of that is disappointing, even if it is more realistic.

 

He is not the shot blocker Joel was, or Chandler for that matter. Joel has always had great defensive timing, while Chandler is closer, but still averaged more than a block more per 36 minutes than Leonard. Joel was at 4 bp36 his rookie year, but Joel was older by a year

 

I posted it earlier, Joel's best season was 6.4/7.7/2.1. Is that really all you expect from Leonard at his peak? I see him averaging at least twice as many PPG and more than 7.7 RPG, but probably fewer than 2.1 BPG. Of course, Joel may win in other areas that don't show up in the box score, like setting picks, leadership, etc. but I think 6.4 PPG is a pretty low ceiling for someone with Leonard's size and shooting touch.

BNM

 

If he was our only pick, I'd probably agree with you. But he was our second lottery pick, and is a roll of the dice we could afford to take after landing Lilliard. Personally, I think he'll be significantly better than 10/6/1.3, but not for at least a couple of seasons.

 

I think this is extremely flawed thinking, Wook. If you have 1 or 14 lottery picks, you should treat each one the same. Just because oyu landed a player you thought was going to be good (no one knew Lillard was going to be this good this fast) doesn't mean you can "roll the dice" with your next pick Teams like Portland almost exclusively have to build through the draft because they don't attract high end FA's. Gambling and what not is not the way to go in the lottery.

 

The reason I asked is because those were Mihm's averages over his best two seasons as a starter. Mihm was a 7th over all pick, Joel 9th and Leonard 11th. There have been a LOT of big men taken higher, in some cases a LOT higher (Kwame, Darko, Tskitishvili, etc.) than 11th that put up worse numbers. Young big men are such a gamble. Someone like Leonard has all the physical tools (huge size, long arms, solid frame, excellent athleticism, good shooting touch, etc.), but will he ever put it all together? For some reason, it just seems like too many people are giving up on him way too soon. I'd like to give the 20-year old more than 10 hours of on the job training before declaring he'll never be any good.

BNM

 

Other than being a big white Blazer center, I see nothing similar with Przybilla.

The single demonstrable skill Leonard has shown is the ability to shoot the ball and dunk. Not rebound, not defend, not set wicked screens.

Guessing at his high end, I'd speculate he's a 16pt/7reb type of center. Kind of like Mehmet Okur, without the three point shooting and better finishing around the rim. You'll always wonder why a 7'1 guy doesn't rebound better, but hey, after Aldrdidge and Sheed you'd think we'd get used to it.

Here he is in comparison to Rik Smitts and Okur's rookie years. Keep in mind Smitts was 22, Okur 23, and Leonard 20. Probably won't be as good as those guys, but it's possible. He's got more athleticism even if he isn't as smart.

 

It also depends on who else was still available. In Kwame's case, Washington passed on Chandler, Pau Gasol, Joe Johnson, Zach Randolph, Gerald Wallace, Tony Parker, etc. Darko was even worse, with Melo, Bosh and Wade taken with the next three picks. Detroit could have been a dynasty, not just a one time champion if they wouldn't have wasted that pick on Darko.

It's way too early to evaluate the 2012 draft, but so far no one taken after Leonard is looking like they will be anything better than an average NBA player. I don't see any superstars we passed on to select Leonard. There were no can't miss prospects left on the board. So, if you're going to take a gamble anyway, you might as well go for broke and take the very young, very big guy with lots of upside. Unless Meyers never comes close to his potential AND someone taken after him becomes anything better than average, it's hard to find fault with the pick.

BNM

 

I think the sample size is too small to predict whether or not Leonard will be a good rebounder and shot blocker. He hasn't played enough minutes to get used to the speed of the NBA game. He looks lost, confused and out of position a lot, but that's exactly what I'd expect from a raw 20-year old with less than 600 minutes of PT. But, based on his size, athleticism and college scouting reports, I'm willing to wait and let him develop for a couple years before I declare him inadequate in those areas.

Again, from the strengths section of his nbadraft.net scouting report:

"Protects the rim well on defense ... Blocks a lot of shots ... Smart help-defender ... Gets his hands on a lot of rebounds, and is aware enough to tip-out to teammates when he can't corral one himself ... Usually does a good job of finding somebody to box-out whenever a shot goes up ..."

Combined with his size and athleticism, that sounds like he has all the tools to become a good shot blocker and rebounder. The kid just needs time to develop. And, if he doesn't, are we really going to be kicking ourselves because we passed on Fab Melo or Miles Plumlee?

BNM

 

I think Leonard will be a decent rebounder, but his block numbers, even in college were never great.

 

I think rolling the dice on Leonard was the right thing to do at the time, because no matter how high anyone was on Lilliard, nobody, and I mean NOBODY had any inkling that he'd be good enough to make this team a playoff contender this far into the season. The fact that we're still talking playoffs at all is a drastic overachievement when compared to expectations. If Lilliard was third or fourth best among rookies and we were 12 games below .500 instead of only 2, Leonard would be playing a lot more and (theoretically) developing faster.

 

some people dont understand, there arent alot of centers in this league putting up 8/8/2 the list is 4 players long

duncan
noah
dho
hibbert

you can maybe include larry sanders, he plays some forward though

basketball reference lists 30 centers averaging at least 2 ppg/2rpg/.5bpg

http://www.basketball-reference.com...tat=&c5comp=gt&c6mult=1.0&c6stat=&order_by=ws

 

the list of centers averaging 8/8/2blocks is 3 players long

dho
hibbert
noah

larry sanders and duncan do as well, some from the forward position though

heres a list of true centers form basketballreference.com that average at least 2/2/.5 blocks

 

It's the 2bpg that's really limiting that list. Seems like an inconsequential stat used merely to create a false impression of a lack of quality Cs in the league. What's the difference between 1bpg and 2bpg? AT BEST the difference is two points. Not a big deal over a 48 minute game with scores in the high-90s to low-100s.

 

How many of those shots are altered? How many times do offenses settle for a jumper instead of attacking a shot blocker? How many times when those shots are altered or missed from jumpers does the team run down on a fast break because of it? I think it's a lot more important than 2 points. It literally can chance a teams offensive game plan

 

It's the "4 or 5 years down the road" part that tears it for me. If he goes 10/10 NEXT season that would be OK.