Chad Ford unveils mock scenarios (spoiler: Poythress, Cauley-Stein to POR)

Discussion in 'Portland Trail Blazers' started by TowelBoy, Mar 1, 2013.

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  1. TowelBoy

    TowelBoy Member

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    Ford released a column today analyzing whom each team would draft were they fortunate enough to win the lottery. While most of the ESPN.com audience is interested in juicy questions like McLemore vs. Nerlens, I was far more interested in what was going at the bottom of the mock.

    This morning, there was a bug in the system in that it failed to account for our pick going to CHA if it was 13 or 14 (they later fixed it and, properly, POR only shows up in the mock if we draw a top-3 pick). I ran the simulation a bunch of times and Poythress and Cauley-Stein were the two names that we kept getting (C-S only if Poythress was off the board).

    Anyone who knows me knows I watch 0.00 CBB, but after getting up to speed on Ford's stuff in recent weeks, both prospects fit with what I'm hoping for out of this draft (assuming we can tank enough for the 10-12 range and don't trade the pick, which I'm not opposed to either): young players with sky-high ceilings who "slip" due to inconsistency and lack of polish.

    Anyone with opinions on these dudes? Time to start looking forward to something....
     
    TowelBoy, Mar 1, 2013
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  2. BrianFromWA

    BrianFromWA Editor in Chief Staff Member Editor in Chief

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    I'm not married to this, but I'd imagine that at this point I'd rather take the chance on lower-athleticism guys who can really play (as long as they have NBA-decent athleticism) than high-upside projects who can jump out of the gym but don't know where to jump to. I'm sure someone can come up with other comparisons that totally refute this (Jeff Green over Noah might be one), but I'd much rather have (for this team), say Jimmer than Elliot Williams or JJ Redick over Webster (or for that matter, Lillard over Drummond or Henson). Unless it's MKG. I just like that guy. ;)

    In this draft, in this range, that might mean someone like Zeller or Olynyk than Gobert, or Shabazz or Saric (sleeper?) over Poythress.
     
    BrianFromWA, Mar 1, 2013
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  3. BrianFromWA

    BrianFromWA Editor in Chief Staff Member Editor in Chief

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    On another note, assuming we did get, say, a top 3 pick by some miracle. Is Noel the pick? Or someone like Oladipo or McLemore? Smart if you think he's BPA, even though we have Dame?
     
    BrianFromWA, Mar 1, 2013
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  4. PtldPlatypus

    PtldPlatypus Let's go Baby Blazers! Staff Member Global Moderator Moderator

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    At top 3, I'd like one of the shooting guards--of which I believe Smart actually is one. Any one of Smart, McLemore or Oladipo would be great, IMO. Possibly Porter too, although I haven't watched him, just going off what I've heard. At 12, I'd probably go Poythress too, although (based on what Ford would have available) there's an argument to be made for Isaiah Austin--if you like raw, skinny centers with tons of "upside". Also, I'm on record a few months ago with a prediction that Cauley-Stein may well end up a better player than Noel, so I wouldn't be totally averse to him either (although sometimes he seems a tad stiff to me).
     
    PtldPlatypus, Mar 1, 2013
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  5. Mediocre Man

    Mediocre Man Mr. SportsTwo

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    I find it hard to believe either of those guys will fall to the second round where the Blazers will be picking
     
    Mediocre Man, Mar 1, 2013
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  6. KeepOnRollin

    KeepOnRollin Well-Known Member

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    You don't think we keep our pick?

    I count 6 wins left when looking at the rest of this season. Very tough schedule.

    So that is a 6 and 19 finish.
     
    KeepOnRollin, Mar 1, 2013
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  7. Mediocre Man

    Mediocre Man Mr. SportsTwo

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    As it stands right now I don't. Things may change if we are officially eliminated from the playoffs with a few games to play and we clear the bench though. I think Portland wins just enough to stay in the 13-15 slot. Not quite good enough to make the playoffs, not quite bad enough to get into the top 12. NBA purgatory at it's finest
     
    Mediocre Man, Mar 1, 2013
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  8. Natebishop3

    Natebishop3 Don't tread on me!

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    I'm losing hope that we keep the pick.
     
    Natebishop3, Mar 1, 2013
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  9. blue9

    blue9 Well-Known Member

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    I'll be shocked if we don't. We'll win the next two, but after that we're going to lose A LOT.
     
    blue9, Mar 1, 2013
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  10. BBert

    BBert Weasels Ripped My Flesh

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    I would be so stoked if we got Poythress.
     
    BBert, Mar 1, 2013
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  11. magnifier661

    magnifier661 B-A-N-A-N-A-S!

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    But 13-15 really gonna give you talent we need? I would rather lose the cap hold and make some waves this summer. Any extra cap could really help big time.
     
    magnifier661, Mar 1, 2013
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  12. Hobbesarable

    Hobbesarable Cartoon Character

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    I believe MM was referring to the top 12 protected pick. Good morning, Mags!
     
    Hobbesarable, Mar 1, 2013
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  13. drexlersdad

    drexlersdad SABAS

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    if dallas passes the blazers (and i think they will), blazers are locked into at least #12 more or less

    i know doom and gloom is so fun to participate in and all, but...why??
     
    drexlersdad, Mar 1, 2013
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  14. KeepOnRollin

    KeepOnRollin Well-Known Member

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    This team fights until the end so they could prove me wrong but as I said guys, after looking at our schedule, I don't see how we can not drop a few places in the standings. Seriously, look at our remaining games. I know you can't pick wins and losses and expect them to stick but after our next two games you could make a case that we lose every other one (I don't think that will happen and I don't want it to but you could make a case for it).
     
    KeepOnRollin, Mar 1, 2013
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  15. magnifier661

    magnifier661 B-A-N-A-N-A-S!

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    Good morning Hobbs!!!!
     
    magnifier661, Mar 1, 2013
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  16. Mediocre Man

    Mediocre Man Mr. SportsTwo

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    Hobbes was correct, but that pick would be a valuable asset to a team possibly looking to shed salary *couch* Phoenix *cough* or a team looking to avoid luxury tax
     
    Mediocre Man, Mar 1, 2013
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  17. Mediocre Man

    Mediocre Man Mr. SportsTwo

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    I think that's the rub, DD. Dallas has been less than good this year, and portland seems to be a team that wins many games they shouldn't. A lot of people seem to think 6-7 more wins, but I can easily see 10 more
     
    Mediocre Man, Mar 1, 2013
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  18. drexlersdad

    drexlersdad SABAS

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    even then, all dallas would need is 11 or 12 wins out of 25...

    toronto is playing alot better, all they would need to do is play .500 ball the rest of the way, same goes for philly and detroit more or less...
     
    drexlersdad, Mar 1, 2013
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  19. magnifier661

    magnifier661 B-A-N-A-N-A-S!

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    Dallas hasn't been that consistent though. And it's quite possible lakers start losing too. There are a bunch of "what ifs".
     
    magnifier661, Mar 1, 2013
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  20. blue9

    blue9 Well-Known Member

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    The league won't let that happen.
     
    blue9, Mar 1, 2013
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