I think his shooting percentages will improve as he learns how to get better shots, and maybe even gets a tad stronger. It seems common for rookie guards to have low shooting percentages. He also has room to get better passing the ball and defending, and I think he's already shown improvement on defense.
I'm actually a little surprised by the overwhelming majority saying they would take Lillard over Roy. Personally, if made to choose, I would go with Roy...and I REALLY like Lillard.
Huh.....I think I would take Lillard, but that is tough. Roy was obviously great but Lillard gets the rest of the team involved better, plays at a faster tempo, and (hopefully) will become as dominant a player by year 3, 4.
It is possible Lillard can become dominant, but Roy became a legitimate top 10 player in the league. This is one I'd love to be wrong about!
But that's not the question. He didn't ask if you would take the Roy that you knew he'd become. He asked if, in a vacuum, if you would take rookie Dame or rookie Roy? We don't know what the future holds for Dame. He might turn out to be just as good as Roy in his prime, or maybe he'll end up retired in four years (like Roy). But some of us feel if we were faced with a choice between the two in their rookie years, with no knowledge of their futures, we would take Dame.
Maybe you missed the part where I was replying to HomerLovesKoolaid's hope that Lillard would become dominant in years 3,4. Yes, I'm aware. And I'm still surprised. Roy put up a rookie PER of 18.0. Lillard is at 16.0. Roy had a WS/48 of 0.114, Lillard is 0.087. TS%: Roy was 55%, Lillard is 54%. Basically, Roy was better by pretty much every statistical measure. And while Roy's defense wasn't amazing, I think it was better than Lillard's. I feel that Roy and Lillard have similar skill sets, leadership qualities, demeanor, and other non-tangibles. But Roy, IMO, was even better as a rookie and when I take into account his size and strength, I felt he had a better chance to be a dominant player.
With the importance of the PG position and Lillard's athleticism I think you can make a case he has a higher ceiling than Roy did. But Roy reached his so we'll have to wait and see. Also, to the Lillard-pickers who said they enjoy watching Lillard more than they ever did watching Roy: I think that's a little bit of recency bias talking. Fact is it's probably a tie. Every one of us was just a gaga for Roy then as we are for Lillard now. As for the post about Lillard's classmates who may have higher ceilings (Beal, Barnes, Davis), I think Drummond was a glaring omission. In fact I think it's to the point he's the only candidate. I could be wrong about Davis, but I just can't think of anyone in that mold being a superstar. Could he be a slightly better version of peak-Camby? Definitely. Barnes and Beal could be nice players, perhaps developing into the Rudy Gay of Roy's class as players who always seem like they might have the upside to surpass the R.O.Y. but can never quite get there and settle in as fringe all-star candidates. Drummond, on the other hand, is what Oden was supposed to be. To me he has shown flashes of Shaq/Dwight that are impossible to ignore. I wonder if Detroit "knew" something the rest of us didn't about him (as in, have him top 3 on their board), or whether they just lucked into being the team on the clock when the risk/reward favored taking him. The fact that they didn't trade up suggests the latter. In which case, I would give anything to go back in time and trade from #11 to #9 by any means necessary.
Fair points about Roy, especially the advanced metrics. But Lillard's upside is top-notch too. His ceiling is a Irving/Westbrook hybrid: 80% of Irving's natural shooting and ball-handling talent, 80% of Westbrook's explosion and quickness. A happy medium and a long-term top 5 PG in the NBA. Top 5 PG might sound like it pales in comparison to the ceiling Roy reached--top 7 or 8 player overall--but I think that says more about the state of the PG position today.
I wonder what type of advanced stats Lillard would have with Nate coaching. Nate would run the shit out of a iso Lillard if he were coach. I was and still am a huge broy fan. He is still my favorite blazer of all time; but I just think Lillard will eventually become the best blazer to ever put on a blazer uniform; if he can stay healthy throughout his career. This isn't the homer in me talking either. Their is something about this kid that's really really special.
