I'm woefully fuzzy on the finer points of the new CBA and our specific cap situation, but I think this all fits. Summary: Acquisitions are Omer Asik, Tyreke Evans, J.J. Redick, and Jermaine O'Neal. Draft Day: Trade Joel Freeland and #10 overall pick to Houston for Omer Asik. This move fits the Rockets' m.o. to a 'T'. The #10 gives them another versatile asset to use in aggressive moves, and if nothing else Freeland gives them another big who can shoot. After this move they are much better positioned to acquire Dwight Howard (the writing is on the wall that Houston is his 1st choice if they can make it work) both in terms of cap space and S&T assets if necessary. If I'm not mistaken, because of the unique offer Houston made to Asik last year, he counts as $8.4 million against them but only $5.2 million against us in 2013-14. Since Freeland's cap figure next year is $2.9 million, this frees up $5.5 million for Houston while only using up $2.3 million of our room. Free Agency: Offer 4 years, $48 million to RFA Tyreke Evans. You have to overpay for RFAs. This is more than DeRozan and Curry got as extensions, though Curry's is obviously a ridiculous bargain in light of this season. We have to pay a premium for this kind of talent and hope that (a) Sacramento is too dysfunctional and cash-strapped to match, and (b) Evans has a similar emergence to Curry (though perhaps not quite to that level) making him worth this deal. On our team he would edge out Batum for our 2nd-highest salary. The first-year hit would be around $11 million, using up most of our remaining cap room. Trade Wesley Matthews for J.J Redick (S&T: 4 years, $32 million). This allows the Bucks to get something for an asset that's walking out the door. We could also include a freshly-chosen 2nd rounder or an overseas prospect as sweetener. I believe a $32 million deal would have a first-year cap hit very similar to Matthews's $6.9 million, so it should work whether it relies on matching or cap room. Retain Eric Maynor for 3 years, $10 million. This is where I'm most doubtful in my rudimentary CBA math. I hope there's room for him, or alternatively I hope there's enough wiggle room throughout this template to bring him back or land another competent backup PG (they are a dime a dozen). Sign Jermaine O'Neal for minimum salary. Depth Chart: PG - Lillard, Maynor SG - Evans, Redick, Barton SF - Batum, Claver PF - Aldridge, O'Neal C - Asik, Leonard Analysis: Apologies to Redick and Evans, but I think the most dramatic improvement to our W/L record and our playoff aspirations and success comes from Asik here. Upgrading from an undersized C who was one of the worst in the NBA defensively to a mammoth C with elite defensive skills is worth multiple wins. Evans is an even more exciting addition than Asik if he continues to improve at age 23. I think he is an elite young combo guard in the making and a perfect complement to Lillard. An elite young back court, a star PF, a defensive C, and jack-of-all-trades SF is a nice starting five to hitch our wagon to. Redick is pretty self-explanatory. Dude is one of the best pure shooters in the league and brings underrated playmaking. He's a great 6th man and floor-spreader for this group. "That's not enough to get past Miami or OKC" is a lame criticism. If every team had to blow it up because they didn't stack up to the Heat on paper, there'd be no teams left. You have to assemble a core with talent and upside and take your shot. But for the record, the things currently making Indiana and Memphis successful: defensive anchor Cs, scoring PFs, athletic defensive wings, scoring floor general guards. That's a rough description but you get the idea. And we're not as far away as you think. Last year we had a playoff-caliber starting 5 and one of the worst benches in history. Batum and Aldridge have plateaued, but Lillard improves and this plan gives an enormous boost at SG (Evans), C (Asik), 6th man (Redick), and backup C (O'Neal plus improved Leonard). For additional depth, this plan relies on some improvement of our current players to realize its full potential. I'm projecting Barton and Claver to develop into at least average bench players. I believe they will, Barton as a spark plug scorer and Claver as a tough defender and smallball 4. Both players improving their decent-looking-but-inconsistent 3-balls would obviously be huge for their productivity.
I think it is all somewhat realistic outside of Asik. I can't see HOU moving Asik until they have a promise in pocket that Howard is coming. Howard is too flaky for that to be a verbal one as well imo.
Agree, I'd love to get Asik but this IMO is not enough. If they can get Howard and desperately need capspace it's possible but there are a ton of teams out their with capspace and assets, IMO TB's proposal is not enough
I dont understand the fascination with Reddick. At least in terms of comparing to Matthews. Now if you want him in addition to Matthews that might make sense but Im still not sure where the playing time will be. Sorry I dont know how to post just the one table: http://bkref.com/tiny/qiYOT
I don't think HOU would be willing to take on Freeland to give away Asik....and I am not sure they would want the #10 either, but that is possible...but if I were POR I wouldn't necessarily want to trade away the #10 for Asik either.... Howard is eligible for 30% of salary cap max value? So around $20 million? If the cap is at $60 million, they are at $45 million with a team option on Garcia at $6 mil and a shitload of partially guaranteed deals (Brooks, Delfino, Anderson, Ohlbrecht), they could theoretically get there I think without having to trade Asik at all....but dealing him allows them to shed Asik's deal (which isn't really a bad contract IMO), open space for Howard and they have a young Greg Smith as a backup....and it allows them the option of retaining guys like Garcia, Delfino and maybe Brooks.... Point being that I think POR would be incredibly lucky if they could get Asik for nothing but thier cap space and maybe rights to Papanikalou...and possible that they would have to give up the #10 as well....but HOU is not going to take Freeland or any other contracts back in such a deal....so best case scenario, a large chunk of POR cap space is gone, which if the #10 isn't included I would be ok with, b\c I would think POR would then want to use the #10 and those 3 2nd's (packaged in a deal perhaps?) to address other needs like a SG and filling out the bench.... So Asik for cap space and rights to Papnikalou...yeah If the #10 is included, then I don't like that deal nearly as much....
Incorrect on Asik's salary issue, it'd still be at the 8.3 or whatever it is for Houston. And there's no way they give up Asik until they have Dwight agreeing to a deal, and need to clear the cap space. As for the rest of the plan, that's an awful lot of money to throw at the SG position in one offseason. 12 for Evans and 8 for Reddick? Yuck. And as was mentioned, Reddick doesn't give us an improvement over Matthews to justify more money and the S&T swap.
I would never trade Wesley Matthews for Reddick. Wes is the type of cat that could become a great 6th man bringing defense and energy off the bench. Give him 24+ Mins a game and he will produce for you. I agree with moving toward Evans, just not at that amount. He could come in and would probably take Wesley's spot (which in turn would also make Wes work that much harder). We need Starters at the C and SG positions. I also agree that HOU would never do that deal for Asik
