That would be the shit! I'm a little concerned with Lopez though. He is definitely an explosive scorer; but rebounding and blocking shots are weak for a player of his size. But he's definitely a premier center. Getting him would be a dream come true.
Rebounding and being a bit slow footed are his main weaknesses, but blocked shots definitely aren't a weakness for him. He averaged more than 2 per game this year, and averages 1.9 per 36 for his career.
True he is getting a good share of block shots; but every time I watched him play; he seemed slow on help. That was our biggest weakness. We just were awful on help d. I think adding Lopez doesn't necessarily help in this area. It's a definite improvement; just not as I think we need.
It doesn't work that way. Brian already outlined in this thread that only the original team can do a S&T. A team like Portland can't sign another team's free agent and trade him. At least not right away. We could sign him and trade him in like... December?
I think it's more with a sign and trade. But I still think the lakers would just ask for Lopez instead.
BUMP for post-draft, pre-FA Hopefully this helps a bit: maybe instead of a thread it could be an article post, b/c this will probably be pretty long. But this way you can ask questions. 1. Guaranteed roster spots As the roster currently stands, there is $43.2M committed to the following 8 players: Aldridge: $14.6M Batum: $11.3M Matthews: $6.9M Lillard: $3.2M Freeland: $2.9M Leonard: $2.2M Claver: $1.3M Barton: $0.8M The non-guaranteed contract of Pavlovic is another $1.4M, unless he is released. I need to verify the "if-by" date but I'm assuming June 30 (Jeffries' was earlier this week, but most are June 30--see Blake and Webster--while a occasionally they're non-guaranteed if a player is released before Opening Night). I'm assuming he will either be traded or outright waived by June 30. To "maximize" space, he will simply be waived or traded for a 2nd-rounder (which doesn't have a cap number assigned). So running cap number is still at $43.2M. (Edit after submitting to Storyteller: there is no "if-by" date for Pavlovic. He's unguaranteed until the start of the season.) Draft Picks: McCollum's $1.9M hold make the running cap number $45.1M. Crabbe and Withey do not carry cap holds, unless and until they're signed. But they also don't count as "roster spots filled" until signed. McCollum does. $490k hold for each unoccupied roster spot under 12. With the 8 guaranteed players and McCollum, that leaves 3 holds at $490k apiece or $1.47M. Once someone is signed (or another hold is enforced, like a free agent hold for Hickson or Maynor) then that $490k hold goes away. "Maximizing space" would add $1.47M for the 3 cap holds. Running cap number is now $46.6M. 2. Uncertain (Potential) free agent cap holds: Hickson's cap hold is $7.6M (190% of his salary this year--as a Bird below-average contract NOT following rookie contract) if the team chooses to keep his Bird rights. This would be useful if we plan on signing him over $7.6M a year. If we keep this cap hold, it takes the place of one of the $490k roster holds and add $7.1M to the cap number. Maynor's cap number is $5.85M (250% of his salary this year--as a below-average salary following 4th year of rookie contract). The Blazers must offer a qualifying offer to make him an RFA ($3.4M). If he signs the QO, the $5.85M hold goes away and the $3.4M contract becomes the new cap number and one of the roster holds goes away. He will not be offered the QO, which means we either keep his 5.85M cap hold (not likely) or he is renounced. 3. 2013-14 Salary Cap This year's salary cap number was $58.044M, a luxury tax line of $70.307M and the apron of $74.307M. For 2013-14, it will be 53.51% of BRI (minus benefits) divided among the 30 teams. As a rough calculation (NOT the official one) I use 1.21*(salary cap projection) to get my luxury tax projections. If the 58.5M salary cap projection is to be believed, then the tax line would be about 70.8M and the apron would be 74.8M. This year is the first year of the "incremental" tax rate, and 2014-15 will be the first year of the the "repeater rate" penalty. 4. Other tidbits: Moratorium is July 1-July 9. First available time to sign is July 10 12:01. New free agents can be visited 12:01am EST July 1. The non-taxpayer MLE is $5.15M. The taxpayer MLE is $3.183M. The room exception (for teams that started out below the salary cap): $2.652M. Can only be a maximum of 2 years. The BAE (if you are below apron--$4M over tax-- and didn't use whichever MLE or room you qualified for) is $2.016M. To receive a player in a S&T, you cannot end up above apron after your trade, and cannot have used MLE already. (Clarification by Storyteller: Just to clarify, to receive a player in a S&T, you cannot be over the apron or have used the taxpayer MLE. You can, however, use the non-taxpayer MLE or the Room Exception and still receive S&T players.") Cash available for trades $3.2M total for the year. You cannot buy a pick for $3.2M, sell a pick for $3.2M, and buy a new one for $3.2M. 5. Conclusion: If the cap number is 58.5M, and we have a running number of 46.6M, then then cap space available is 11.9M. (Edit: Cap holds only drop off after a contract is signed.) Unless you're signing Crabbe and Withey for minimum deals, (in which case their starting salary is 490k--same as the roster hold) then you have to use cap space (or break up the room exception) to sign them. But to sign each of them to the same deal they would've had as the #30 pick in the draft (a 4yr deal starting a 900k/yr with team options for yr 3 and 4) would actually only take 500k each off of the cap space, so you could sign both of them to those deals and still have 10.9M in cap space.
Thanks for outlining this so thoroughly, Brian. It's really great. You're obviously thinking a lot about our cap space...curious what your ideal use of our cap space is (in the scenario of us keeping LA and just trying to become a better, more complete team).
wow, just lost a whole tl;dr post. :smh: Anyway, here are the big points. 1. Pre-draft, I would've wanted to use assets (Batum? Wes? Future 1sts? bad contracts) to move up to get whichever of Len or Noel the medical staff thought was healthier. Then use FA to get combo guards who could shoot/score (Redick, Evans, Ellis, maybe Jack at the low end). But that was then. In the draft we got our combo guards and wing shooters (which I like, btw). We still having a gaping hole at C, but since we're being built in the 2009 ORL model, I think that a rebounding C in a bit more in demand that a shot-blocking/defensive C. I know there's little difference there, but personally I'd put the emphasis on keeping the other team off the boards and getting our own rebounds, rather than having someone like Tyson Chandler or Javale McGee or Serge Ibaka waiting to swat shots. 2. Assuming no trades and that we're keeping LMA, I think I'd go for the following (the rationales for them got deleted): a. Biedrins (if GSW gives us something to take his contract). He's an expiring, but the 2006-2011 version is just what we need. If he sucks, no long-term damage and we picked up an asset for our trouble. b. Jordan or Asik, if the cost is nothing but our cap space. It's almost a tossup on which one--I like that Jordan has a longer track record and higher offensive game, but Asik would give us an extra 3M in space to use and they both have contracts that end at the same time as LMA's. So while we don't get long-term control over the two, they won't handicap us in the future. c. Bynum, if he's checked out as relatively healthy by our docs and signs a 2yr guaranteed with team options for 3 (and 4, if he'd take it). d. Jefferson. He's not known for D, but he's useful in the low post, and can rebound. e. Mozgov. If he's MLE-ish level. (Stay away from List, for various reasons: Evans, Mayo, Jennings, Jack, Robinson, Teague, Hickson, Redick, Ellis, Martin, Korver, Millsap) f. On the cheap, someone like Reggie Evans or DeJuan Blair, if we can use our cap space to get another asset that we may not need as much but may offer us trade potential in the future (getting, say, Webster for 4M/yr or Allen at 6M/yr that may allow us to shop Wes or Batum for a better C long-term). I like Reggie Evans for us regardless of if we get a good C. He's just a really useful role player in a role we desperately need. 3. In terms of trades, the costs vary, but you can look at anything on the spectrum from Okafor (for basically cap space, if they'd do it) to Biyambo to Cousins or Vucevic (which would probably take at least a starter and future considerations). You'll laugh, but I actually would explore what Biyambo would cost before Cousins or Vucevic. He's "only" 6'9", but his wingspan is the same as Shaq/Drummond and higher than Javale McGee, which leads him to very high rebound and block %'s. More to follow...
Just a tip--If I'm ever writing a tl;dr post, I always write it out in notepad, then copy-paste into the forum, in order to avoid that very situation.
I used to lose posts because it logged me out when I took too long to write. Then I tried that log-on screen that appears when it gives you the bad news. I logged on, and my post went through like normal.
BUMP for post-draft, post-Robinson, pre-FA Hopefully this helps a bit: maybe instead of a thread it could be an article post, b/c this will probably be pretty long. But this way you can ask questions. 1. Guaranteed roster spots As the roster currently stands, there is $46.7M committed to the following 9 players: Aldridge: $14.6M Batum: $11.3M Matthews: $6.9M Robinson: $3.5M Lillard: $3.2M Freeland: $2.9M Leonard: $2.2M Claver: $1.3M Barton: $0.8M The non-guaranteed contract of Pavlovic is another $1.4M, unless he is released. To "maximize" space, he will simply be waived or traded for a 2nd-rounder (which doesn't have a cap number assigned). So running cap number is still at $46.7M. (Edit after submitting to Storyteller: there is no "if-by" date for Pavlovic. He's unguaranteed until the start of the season.) Draft Picks: McCollum's $1.9M hold make the running cap number $48.6M. Crabbe and Withey do not carry cap holds, unless and until they're signed. But they also don't count as "roster spots filled" until signed. McCollum does. $490k hold for each unoccupied roster spot under 12. With the 9 guaranteed players and McCollum, that leaves 2 holds at $490k apiece or $0.98M. Once someone is signed (or another hold is enforced, like a free agent hold for Hickson or Maynor) then that $490k hold goes away. "Maximizing space" would add $0.98M for the 2 cap holds. Running cap number is now $49.6M. 2. Uncertain (Potential) free agent cap holds: Hickson's cap hold is $7.6M (190% of his salary this year--as a Bird below-average contract NOT following rookie contract) if the team chooses to keep his Bird rights. This would be useful if we plan on signing him over $7.6M a year. If we keep this cap hold, it takes the place of one of the $490k roster holds and add $7.1M to the cap number. Maynor's cap number is $5.85M (250% of his salary this year--as a below-average salary following 4th year of rookie contract). The Blazers must offer a qualifying offer to make him an RFA ($3.4M). If he signs the QO, the $5.85M hold goes away and the $3.4M contract becomes the new cap number and one of the roster holds goes away. He will not be offered the QO, which means we either keep his 5.85M cap hold (not likely) or he is renounced. 3. 2013-14 Salary Cap This year's salary cap number was $58.044M, a luxury tax line of $70.307M and the apron of $74.307M. For 2013-14, it will be 53.51% of BRI (minus benefits) divided among the 30 teams. As a rough calculation (NOT the official one) I use 1.21*(salary cap projection) to get my luxury tax projections. If the 58.5M salary cap projection is to be believed, then the tax line would be about 70.8M and the apron would be 74.8M. This year is the first year of the "incremental" tax rate, and 2014-15 will be the first year of the the "repeater rate" penalty. 4. Other tidbits: Moratorium is July 1-July 9. First available time to sign is July 10 12:01. New free agents can be visited 12:01am EST July 1. The non-taxpayer MLE is $5.15M. The taxpayer MLE is $3.183M. The room exception (for teams that started out below the salary cap): $2.652M. Can only be a maximum of 2 years. The BAE (if you are below apron--$4M over tax-- and didn't use whichever MLE or room you qualified for) is $2.016M. To receive a player in a S&T, you cannot end up above apron after your trade, and cannot have used MLE already. (Clarification by Storyteller: Just to clarify, to receive a player in a S&T, you cannot be over the apron or have used the taxpayer MLE. You can, however, use the non-taxpayer MLE or the Room Exception and still receive S&T players.") Cash available for trades $3.2M total for the year. You cannot buy a pick for $3.2M, sell a pick for $3.2M, and buy a new one for $3.2M. 5. Conclusion: If the cap number is $58.5M, and we have a running number of $49.6M, then then cap space available is $8.9M. (Edit: Cap holds only drop off after a contract is signed.) Unless you're signing Crabbe and Withey for minimum deals, (in which case their starting salary is 490k--same as the roster hold) then you have to use cap space (or break up the room exception) to sign them. But to sign each of them to the same deal they would've had as the #30 pick in the draft (a 4yr deal starting a 900k/yr with team options for yr 3 and 4) would actually only take 500k each off of the cap space, so you could sign both of them to those deals and still have 7.9M in cap space. Conversely, you can sign them to a multiple-year, minimum-guarantee contract that won't add anything to the cap total (since the starting salary would be the rookie minimum, which is equal to and would take the place of the roster hold).
really great work Brian. In years past, I used to keep a notebook with this kind of data so I could try to follow along during the summer. Now I don't have to. Thanks a lot.
BUMP for post-draft, post-Robinson, post-Lopez, pre-FA. Lopez's salary is 5.118M, but tweets are saying that POR is paying his 1.6M trade kicker. That is factored in for salary purposes as being split over the remaining years in proportion to the percentage of the contract left being paid each year. So since there are two years left at roughly a 45/55 split, it will be just under 800k added to his 2013-14 salary number and just over 800k to his 2014-15 number. Hopefully this helps a bit: maybe instead of a thread it could be an article post, b/c this will probably be pretty long. But this way you can ask questions. 1. Guaranteed roster spots As the roster currently stands, there is $51.8M committed to the following 9 players: Aldridge: $14.6M Batum: $11.3M Matthews: $6.9M Lopez: $5.9M Robinson: $3.5M Lillard: $3.2M Freeland: $2.9M Leonard: $2.2M Claver: $1.3M Barton: $0.8M The non-guaranteed contract of Pavlovic is another $1.4M, unless he is released. To "maximize" space, he will simply be waived or traded for a 2nd-rounder (which doesn't have a cap number assigned). Additionally, Harris' contract has a cap number of 0.9M, but he is non-guaranteed before 10/31/13. So running cap number is still at $52.6M. (Edit after submitting to Storyteller: there is no "if-by" date for Pavlovic. He's unguaranteed until the start of the season.) Draft Picks: McCollum's $1.9M hold make the running cap number $54.5M. Crabbe and Withey do not carry cap holds, unless and until they're signed. But they also don't count as "roster spots filled" until signed. McCollum does. $490k hold for each unoccupied roster spot under 12. With the 10 guaranteed players and McCollum, that leaves 1 holds at $490k apiece or $0.49M. Once someone is signed (or another hold is enforced, like a free agent hold for Hickson or Maynor) then that $490k hold goes away. "Maximizing space" would add $0.98M for the 2 cap holds. Running cap number is now $55.0M. 2. Uncertain (Potential) free agent cap holds: Hickson's cap hold is $7.6M (190% of his salary this year--as a Bird below-average contract NOT following rookie contract) if the team chooses to keep his Bird rights. This would be useful if we plan on signing him over $7.6M a year. If we keep this cap hold, it takes the place of one of the $490k roster holds and add $7.1M to the cap number. Maynor's cap number is $5.85M (250% of his salary this year--as a below-average salary following 4th year of rookie contract). The Blazers must offer a qualifying offer to make him an RFA ($3.4M). If he signs the QO, the $5.85M hold goes away and the $3.4M contract becomes the new cap number and one of the roster holds goes away. He will not be offered the QO, which means we either keep his 5.85M cap hold (not likely) or he is renounced. 3. 2013-14 Salary Cap This year's salary cap number was $58.044M, a luxury tax line of $70.307M and the apron of $74.307M. For 2013-14, it will be 53.51% of BRI (minus benefits) divided among the 30 teams. As a rough calculation (NOT the official one) I use 1.21*(salary cap projection) to get my luxury tax projections. If the 58.5M salary cap projection is to be believed, then the tax line would be about 70.8M and the apron would be 74.8M. This year is the first year of the "incremental" tax rate, and 2014-15 will be the first year of the the "repeater rate" penalty. 4. Other tidbits: Moratorium is July 1-July 9. First available time to sign is July 10 12:01. New free agents can be visited 12:01am EST July 1. The non-taxpayer MLE is $5.15M. The taxpayer MLE is $3.183M. The room exception (for teams that started out below the salary cap): $2.652M. Can only be a maximum of 2 years. The BAE (if you are below apron--$4M over tax-- and didn't use whichever MLE or room you qualified for) is $2.016M. To receive a player in a S&T, you cannot end up above apron after your trade, and cannot have used MLE already. (Clarification by Storyteller: Just to clarify, to receive a player in a S&T, you cannot be over the apron or have used the taxpayer MLE. You can, however, use the non-taxpayer MLE or the Room Exception and still receive S&T players.") Cash available for trades $3.2M total for the year. You cannot buy a pick for $3.2M, sell a pick for $3.2M, and buy a new one for $3.2M. 5. Conclusion: If the cap number is $58.5M, and we have a running number of $55.0M, then then cap space available is $3.5M. (Edit: Cap holds only drop off after a contract is signed.) Unless you're signing Crabbe and Withey for minimum deals, (in which case their starting salary is 490k--same as the roster hold) then you have to use cap space (or break up the room exception) to sign them. But to sign each of them to the same deal they would've had as the #30 pick in the draft (a 4yr deal starting a 900k/yr with team options for yr 3 and 4) would actually only take 500k each off of the cap space, so you could sign both of them to those deals and still have 2.5M in cap space. Conversely, you can sign them to a multiple-year, minimum-guarantee contract that won't add anything to the cap total (since the starting salary would be the rookie minimum, which is equal to and would take the place of the roster hold). Summary: Assuming that we didn't send out anything to get Lopez, and that we're paying the full 1.6M trade kicker, we have 3.5M left in space and the 2.6M Room Exception
LOL...I just do it for the love, man. And so I stop seeing questions in threads like "now can we sign anyone else?"
