Game Four Forensic Fan Post-game

(Disclaimer: You'll notice than in losses I generally swear a bit more. Sorry. May not be suitable for 6-year-olds)

Game started out happily enough. I was able to find some WiFi that, while not fast enough or solid enough to give me more than 2 bars or GameCast access, still was able to do play-by-play (for the most part) and follow the game thread.
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Balanced scoring in the first led to 31 points for the Good Guys and a 1 point margin heading to the break. Ref conspiracy theorists were able to play today, as it seemed like Dwight Howard and James Harden were milking their notoriety for everything it was worth tonight. Because it seemed so rampant (at least, the fact that NateBishop and Magnifier brought it up in every. other. post.), you'll get a trifecta of pretty pictures for this particular note:
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But in our magical quest to live by the 3, die by the 3, and shoot extended-range jumpers, we still had the upper hand. Then the 2nd and 3rd quarters came around.

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I won't bore you with the details, but it didn't look good. Core Four at this point 14-27, 51%. Others 3-15, 20%. Lopez started out with 3 blocks. Ended up the half with 3 fouls, and giving the opportunity for the Blazers to start Garbage Time (by which I mean, give Leonard game time to play like Garbage) early in the 2nd.

Then the third quarter started. For those of you thinking it couldn't get worse, just fornicate yourselves.
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Down 5 starting the 2nd half, it was at 18 before your halftime Fire on the Mountain order was dished up. The Early Birds (Lin and Asik) got it started, while the Beard and DwightMare tried their best K*be/Shaq impersonation, and giving the refs their chance to do their Joey Crawford/Steve Javie impersonations (though, to my knowledge, Mike Rice got to stay for the entirety of this one). LMA tried to get the home team back in it, but when you're down 18, trading buckets doesn't work. The bench came in and whittled it down to 11 by the end of the quarter, setting up a slim hope that the starters could come back rested and make a charge. Wes put on a show for the first three minutes, and when Mo hit a jumper (no, really) the lead was 5 and the Rose Gar---MODA Center was rockin'. Then, no one except Harden and DwightMare touched the ball for the next 4 minutes, our shooting went cold and the lead was back to 10. From the 5 minute mark in, though, the only bright spots were a couple of Lillard makes and some TRob garbage scoring. Coupled with the matador defense and phantom fouls, the lack of stops meant lack of a win.

Hack-a-Ho didn't work tonight. (in the interest of being blog-friendly, and not ensuring a ticket to Hell, I won't include any of the 4 memes I'd thought about for this point. Let's just say that mass murder isn't funny and move on). In fact, Dwight (he of the 49% FT over the last two seasons, and 50% so far this season) played Freaky Friday with our guys, and ended up going 9-12, while our own Lillard (85% career, 89% this season) and Wes (83% career, 86% this season) were 8-14 (57%). Now, I'm not saying it was ALL that, but if our guys hit their average (87%) on their 14
and Dwight hits his average on his 12, then we're talking about a 7-point swing. Then again, that's why they play the games.

And Oh My Goodness, layups.
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By my unofficial count the team missed 229 of them, but checking through the game logs it was only...6 of the 9 that were blown. By "attack the rim", I didn't mean to force bricks off of it until it cries...I meant "go for dunks and layups and tipins instead of settling for long jumpers." We'll work on that for next time.

In other threads, we've been discussing LMA's higher-than-his-career-normal shooting percentages, and wondering if he's turned a corner. I took a look at games when he shoots 19 or more shots (as he did tonight--on the year he's shot 22, 26, 17 and 19 FGA) at both >53% (as he'd been averaging so far, and what a "Dirk" level would look like) and at <41.8% (his career average).

LMA has played 49 games when he shoots 19 shots at > 53.0% => team 29-20. 17-11 when he gets 10 rebounds, 12-9 when he gets < 10.
LMA has played 27 games when he shoots 19 shots at < 41.8% => team 11-16, though 7-4 when he gets 10 reb and 4-12 when he doesn't. If his shot is off, it's significantly better for the team if he's getting rebounds. Less so (but still a contributing factor) if he's making a Dirk-level % of his shots.

So I'll be cautiously open to what seems like the inevitability of Stotts' offense this season, that he'll keep LMA in the high post or the left extended block, and be content to let him take 60-75% of his shots from outside. If he's making them at a Dirk percentage, and the rest of the team isn't pooping the bed, then the team should be able to play well-above-.500 ball. Even if he's near his career average (42%) on those jumpers, but getting after rebounds to the tune of 10+ per game, then the chances of winning are much higher. When he's not shooting like Dirk, and not rebounding like an elite PF, it puts the team in a huge hole.

Damian is 16-33 on 3's (48%) for the year. Averaging 8 three attempts per game is something only Jesus Shuttlesworth, B-Diddy, Michael Adams and George McCloud (?!?) have ever done. Only Allen's made > 40% of them. (BTW, Steph Curry is on the same pace).


We're slowing bringing our turnover numbers down ("only" 14 tonight), but when you're outrebounded 47-30 there are other issues. I still stand by my claim that Mo could be in line for a triple-double (points/assists/turnovers) this season. But would you believe, it's only happened 17 times since 1985 (when turnovers became a tracked stat)? And 5 of them are by Blazers or Blazer alumni (Clyde x2, $amon, Robert Pack, Gary Grant). Clyde's the only one besides Nash to have more than one. And one of them was the aforementioned Michael Adams (who'd've thunk you'd get two Michael Adams sightings in the same Forensic Fan post?).

Oh yeah, and before I forget:
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Go Blazers. 2 days off before we beat the Queens and their new ownership.

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You heard me.

 

I like these posts!

And the pictures.

 

The meme's are fucking fantastic. How you weasled in sloppy joe lady from Billy Madison is priceless!

 

LOL. Who does he think he is, Kevin Love?