Anyone wanna address the elephant in the room??

Because I don't think the way that DAL won their lone championship is a model for success. I think more than any other championship in recent history they got hot at the right time. If you could somehow go back and re-play that season 99 more times I doubt that DAL would win the championship again. I just think it was a fluke championship.
If we could somehow win a fluke championship I'd take it and love it. But I don't want to rely on a fluke.
This doesn't have anything to do with a superstar free agent - I've never thought we could go that route.

 

Be honest, given our recent history, would you not be happy with making the playoffs and advancing to the second round? I know I would. We haven't been to the second round since 2000. Would this not exceed your preseason expectations? Winning a lot of regular season games, making the playoffs and advancing to the second round are all steps in the right direction. Once you start winning, it becomes easier to convince talent to come here. Olshey has done a great job of building a roster to fit Stotts' system, while still retaining flexibility. Should a disgruntled star start demanding a trade at the deadline or after the season, it may be just the piece we need to make that final push from playoff team to contender.

I like seeing this team win. That's why I'm a fan. They are winning now and I'm enjoying it. I am optimistic about the future, both short term and with the improvement and roster flexibility, I am also optimistic about the longer term future.

BNM

 

Of course I'd be happy! Getting to the second round would be awesome this year! But I wouldn't be happy if that's where our team tops out over the long haul. And unfortunately, that's where I think this team tops out.
But all of this is beside the point - I'm not talking about my level of happiness, I'm discussing defense. That is, after all, the elephant in the room. People have suggested that our defense is greatly improved over last season and that just isn't true (yet). Simply defending the 3-point line (which, so far, we aren't doing much better than last year) will not launch us into the company of BOS/CHI/LAL/IND of years past.

 

But they did win it the one and only time it mattered. And Stotts was Carlisle's lead assistant. Let's face it, short of LeBron James falling in your lap, there is no sure fire recipe for winning an NBA championship. And as a small market team (hello Cleveland), even if you get lucky and win the lottery at the exact time the next LeBron is available, he'll just leave for green pastures (a bigger market) and you'll be right back in the lottery. No top 3 draft pick has won an NBA championship with the team that drafted them since Tim Duncan 17 years ago, but in that time, teams like Detroit and Dallas, who were built slowly, piece-by-piece have.

BNM

 

Hey if the Blazers get hot at the right time and "luck" their way into a championship using the Mavs model, you'll never hear one goddamned peep out of me about "this isn't the right model" or "this isn't sustainable."

 

I said as much myself! I'll take a championship any way we can get it.

 

But we are doing it MUCH better than last year. 29% is the best Opp 3FG% in the database at nba.com and 5% better than last season and that is a significant improvement. Think about it, the difference between 29% and 34% is the same as the difference between 34% and 39%. At 29% Opp 3FG%, we are best in the league (best in the last 6+ seasons) at defending the 3. At 39%, we'd be 3rd worst. We are doing MUCH better (so far) at defending the 3.

That, combined with our vastly improved team rebounding are the keys to our 8-2 start.

BNM

 

Maybe the elephant in the room is that Lopez isn't as good on defense as we expected (rim protector).

I mean we all seem to like Lopez (what's there not to like), he plays with heart, he gets along with his teammates and he is an upgrade at the center position. so hard not to like Lopez and his game at this point. But there is more scoring in the paint than many anticipated with the addition of Lopez. Maybe his value lies in boxing out on defense (he is slow footed), and he is a nice surprise on the offensive side.

So I'm not saying I'm disappointed with Lopez (he is turning into a fav for me), but maybe that is the reason for the easy baskets in the paint.

 

It may not be a formula that can win in the Playoffs, but since we haven't been in the Playoffs for a few seasons (I think it was in 2011 as I recall where I was in that miraculous comeback against the Rockets), it's a start.

 

This might have been said earlier, but in case not:

Portland (8-2)
Pace: 96.3 (17), OffRtg: 107.2 (3), DefRtg: 102.8 (17), NetRtg: +4.4 (7)

Near the beginning of the season we were dead last in DRtg and there was a panic thread, now we're up to 17 and.... there's another panic thread?

 

I actually thought of this when I was authoring my original post, but that post was already quite long and it was quite late, so I left it out. Thanks for reminding me.

Yes, this is a very important factor for two reasons. First, missing a lot of 3-pointers can lead to long defensive rebounds, which can lead to fast break opportunities for the other team. The good news, is the Blazers are hitting their 3s at a high percentage and doing a good job getting back on defense. Second, on defense, long rebounds can result in giving up a lot of offensive rebounds to the opposition. This can be very demoralizing, to play great defense, get the stop, only to have the other team grab a long offensive rebound and get a fresh 24 seconds. Thankfully, the Blazers are excelling in this area - and I think this is by design. Batum, Matthews and Lillard are all averaging career highs in rebounds. Matthews and Lillard by very significant amounts. I already discussed this in the Rebounding Concern and Asik trade rumor threads, but here are the updated rebounding numbers, current and career best for our perimeter defenders.

Batum:
Current = 6.4 rpg
Previous Best = 5.6 rpg
Delta = +0.8 rpg

Matthews:
Current = 5.1 rpg
Previous Best = 3.4 rpg
Delta = +1.7 rpg

Lillard:
Current = 4.8 rpg
Previous Best = 2.9 rpg
Delta = +1.9 rpg

And, if you look specifically at defensive rebounding, our 3 perimeter players are all averaging over 4 Drpg. That's incredible.

Batum:
Current = 4.7 Drpg
Previous Best = 4.3 Drpg
Delta = +0.4 rpg

Matthews:
Current = 4.2 Drpg
Previous Best = 2.6 Drpg
Delta = +1.8 Drpg

Lillard:
Current = 4.3 Drpg
Previous Best = 2.6 Drpg
Delta = +1.7 Drpg

That's a huge improvement and I don't think it is a coincidence. I think it's something Stotts has stressed and has the players focused on. Giving up long offensive rebounds negates playing great 3-point defense. So, if you want to be successful, you need to deny the 3 and then make sure you gather in the miss. The Blazers are doing both, and that's why they are winning.

BNM

 

He's not elite, but he's better than average. And, that's a huge improvement over what we had previously.

BNM

 

And people are trying to say we haven't gotten better on defense... smh

 

Repped! Excellent point. Sure, we still have a ways to go, but we are improving. Honestly, even if we were number 1 in both ORtg and DRtg and undefeated, some people would still find something to complain about (no room for improvement, we can only get worse, the sky is falling, oh the humanity, I'm so scared, please save me, please pay attention to me, did you hear me, hey, I'm over here, mommy, why don't you love me mommy?!?!?!?!?!).

BNM

 

With who we have on the team now I think we can all agree that this style is our best option to take the next step. I mean since we do not have a high lottery pick and we do not have cap space, it all comes down to making progressive steps forward until we can add the needed pieces.

I think we can get lucky and find an inexpensive rim protector to go along with Robin at center. I also think we can
add another guard to play with Lillard. (if needed)

Steps can be added to offset the deficiencies we have now. But it may take two years. Right now just win as many as we can. And even if it is not sustainable in the playoffs, it is our best chance to get there, while entertaining the fans. Our D can get better, but if not we will just need to out score everyone until it can

 

Lopez is pretty "heavy-legged," which means he has trouble hedging on pick and rolls and getting back under the basket at times. His length helps him as a shot-blocker and I think he's a better defensive player then Hickson, but I would tend to see him as short term fix as our starting pivot and not necessarily the guy want roving the paint for the next 5-8 years.

 

Not to diminish winning on the road and winning in general, but the quality of opponent during our six game winning jag might be a factor no? Sacaramento X2, Phoenix, Boston, Toronto, Detroit. I'll take it, but it's a little early to say things have been "fixed."

 

I never said it was fixed. I said it was improving, but still has a ways to go.

BNM

 

Well fuck me! I just noticed that the nba.com stats page I was looking at had another data set that you have to side-scroll to see, otherwise it's hidden! So while I thought I was looking at 3pt data, I wasn't. I hate side-scrolling web pages...
I also just found that their perimeter categories suck - 3-pointers aren't clearly delineated (20-24' includes both 2-point AND 3-point shots)! Initially I liked nba.com's distance data because the interior broke out in more interesting ranges, but now that I notice what's going on with their perimeter ranges I think it blows.

 

A lot of teams play better defense without a great shot blocking center. So it's not just Lopez.

Here is an interesting stat for Lopez, it measures opponent FG% at the rim. I filtered it for players who average at least 1 block per game. Lopez is at 46.5% per game....the really elite defenders like Hibbert and Davis are at 34-35%. Lipez is 22 on that list, but higher than players like Drummond, Dalembert, Ibaka, Gortat, McGee, Jordan.... McGee and Jordan's % is particularly bad.

http://stats.nba.com/playerTracking...=FGP_DEFEND_RIM&sortOrder=ASC&filters=BLK*G*1