National media is just trying to save face while leaving a loophole to say I told you so.
Nothing to see here.
That's my take-away as well. What does adding in pre-season exceptions have to do with right now? So because these people incorrectly assessed and low-balled expectations, that factors in somehow to future success? Pelton says 41 wins so Dave on BE says 38-42 wins... and so on. Dave couldn't even acknowledge Portland was rebounding the ball better, but insisted the Blazers were shaping up to be a walking turnover machine after pre-season, because his head was stuck so far up Pelton's lap top. I don't dislike either of these guys, I just disagree with them.
No, instead of saying they were wrong, they disregard contradicting realities an assert "they'll come back down to earth." It's so cynical and ripe with hubris that Cronos called and said he just threw up his kids. The boiling down of dozens of variables into one simplistic value is lazy. "Look at MY 'SHONES' formula!!!" No thanks.
Pelton and others were wrong about their pre-season assumptions, wrong about where the Blazers would be right now, and until they can find accurate numbers that reflects "heart" and "hustle" and "confidence" and "unselfish team basketball", ect., to factor into their formula, it's just more fodder for starved NBA fan consumption.
What is most amusing about this "SHONES" thing is it was reported he was only 1 game off last season. I call BS. He's already changed his "prediction" from 41 games to 44 games. The results changes game to game, so how can we call this a predictor? I'm going to do everyone a favor and come up with a new system, and call it "SCORE-BOARD". You can only imagine how accurate my "predictions" will be. Spot on!
The more he and others try to explain or rationalize why their formula wasn't wrong, the more disinterested I get in reading it. So, he's adjusted his prediction 4 games, 6 games above .500? Was 6 games his margin of error when the season started? And now he just moves the needle and what's the margin of error now? If he'd spent the article talking about how his formula failed him, because of his failure to input accurate and representative data or because the formulas has an unacceptable margin of error, I could have a great deal more respect for his effort. At this point, I could just as easily blame the results on the refs as I could on points in the paint at this point, so what value is really being added here? Seriously, fill in the blank. What do we feel like pointing the finger at today?
Portland wins a different way every night, and different players step up every night. You can't control Portland, you can only hope to contain them. The Blazers are a good team, and were sorely under-estimated because of bias and faith in overtly simplistic and imperfect means of assessment. Snub away at Wes, LA, Lillard, Batum, and write this team off to your hearts content. Jimmy crack corn and I don't give a (bleep). But, I can't argue that I was not entertained, if only by my own response. So, well done Pelton.
Go Blazers!
