ESPN Kevin Pelton today projects us to finish 6 games above .500

So basically he is not buying our hot start, as we are currently 7 games over .500. That would give us a losing record from here on out.

http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/story/_/id/9995367/nba-how-numbers-help-more-accurately-rank-portland-trail-blazers

Curious we rank below the 3-7 team we just beat on the road:

Edit: His projections are not ending record so he thinks we will play like a 44 win team the remainder of the season.

Kevin Pelton ‏@kpelton 5m
The "projections" at the end are the level at which a team would be expected to play *the rest of the season*:
They're not a projection of wins, because they don't include record to date. So the Blazers' actual projected win total would be higher

 

That's about right though don't you think. I'd have to go back, but I think I said 46 or so wins. Man our schedule in March is BRUTAL!

 

If we lose more games than we win going forward that would be a big disappointment. If thats the case I'd rather see us trade away Aldridge and Matthews than scrape by as a doomed in the first round 8th seed.

 

You can't look at it like that. There are ups and downs during a season. We have had a pretty favorable SOS so far and that will pick up next month.

 

44 wins is not a goal any team should shoot for, thats barely above .500. The 8th seed had 50 wins a couple years ago. I'm not saying this team will get 50+ wins but that should be the goal. There should be a realistic chance of it happening. Teams like Denver and Golden State were supposed to be borderline playoff teams last year but were much better. If the Blazers don't have any chance at being a respectable playoff team than it would be best to build towards future seasons.

 

National media is just trying to save face while leaving a loophole to say I told you so.

Nothing to see here.

 

Shouldn't the goal be to compete for the win every night? Why the hell would anyone shoot for a specific number of wins unless it's 73?

I don't see the problem with being happy that the team is making progress this year... So what if they are an 8th seed this year? Keep things heading the direction they are and that could equate to HCA next year.

 

That's my take-away as well. What does adding in pre-season exceptions have to do with right now? So because these people incorrectly assessed and low-balled expectations, that factors in somehow to future success? Pelton says 41 wins so Dave on BE says 38-42 wins... and so on. Dave couldn't even acknowledge Portland was rebounding the ball better, but insisted the Blazers were shaping up to be a walking turnover machine after pre-season, because his head was stuck so far up Pelton's lap top. I don't dislike either of these guys, I just disagree with them.

No, instead of saying they were wrong, they disregard contradicting realities an assert "they'll come back down to earth." It's so cynical and ripe with hubris that Cronos called and said he just threw up his kids. The boiling down of dozens of variables into one simplistic value is lazy. "Look at MY 'SHONES' formula!!!" No thanks.

Pelton and others were wrong about their pre-season assumptions, wrong about where the Blazers would be right now, and until they can find accurate numbers that reflects "heart" and "hustle" and "confidence" and "unselfish team basketball", ect., to factor into their formula, it's just more fodder for starved NBA fan consumption.

What is most amusing about this "SHONES" thing is it was reported he was only 1 game off last season. I call BS. He's already changed his "prediction" from 41 games to 44 games. The results changes game to game, so how can we call this a predictor? I'm going to do everyone a favor and come up with a new system, and call it "SCORE-BOARD". You can only imagine how accurate my "predictions" will be. Spot on!

The more he and others try to explain or rationalize why their formula wasn't wrong, the more disinterested I get in reading it. So, he's adjusted his prediction 4 games, 6 games above .500? Was 6 games his margin of error when the season started? And now he just moves the needle and what's the margin of error now? If he'd spent the article talking about how his formula failed him, because of his failure to input accurate and representative data or because the formulas has an unacceptable margin of error, I could have a great deal more respect for his effort. At this point, I could just as easily blame the results on the refs as I could on points in the paint at this point, so what value is really being added here? Seriously, fill in the blank. What do we feel like pointing the finger at today?

Portland wins a different way every night, and different players step up every night. You can't control Portland, you can only hope to contain them. The Blazers are a good team, and were sorely under-estimated because of bias and faith in overtly simplistic and imperfect means of assessment. Snub away at Wes, LA, Lillard, Batum, and write this team off to your hearts content. Jimmy crack corn and I don't give a (bleep). But, I can't argue that I was not entertained, if only by my own response. So, well done Pelton. Go Blazers!

 

No, 44 wins means a 44-38 record...

The differnce in winning vs losing a game is two games over .500

 

espn shows no love to blazers ever. not enough kia and state farm contracts for national attention. just look at their power rankings vs. everyone else. most have blazers at 6, espn has them at 7 while the non commercialized ones have them at 3-4. next week's will be even funnier since this week was "the blazers haven't played anyone hard, except the spurs, who are the top team, but they always beat them in portland, so it's not like it took skill, it was sheer dumb black magic. just wait till they play the dominant 3-6 nets."

the difference between this year and years past asside from an excellent team is our boys aren't listening to the hype or allowing refs to get in their heads. they smile at horrible foul calls and stick a 3 pointer where the sun dont shine.

 

Oh dear God

 

Is it though? I only count 7 games (out of 16) that could be labeled potential losses.

 

I am still predicting our team will be a top 4 team in the west. I stand by my prediction. This team has juice and eventually many of you will start believing!

 

Stop losing sleep. The only thing that counts is the final score of the games. Not what some ahole who has never been to Portland "predicts".

 

Well the west is a hell of lot tougher. And the Nets have a lot of games left with eastern teams. So they can make it up if they get healthy.

I love the start for the Blazer, but you know they will go through a tough stretch at some point. Watching the Memphis-Clipper game last night, it was apparent to me we are going to have a lot of ugly games that we are going to have to grind out.

What is the adjustment teams will make to slow our offense down? My hope is the new rule changes will keep the game flowing. Our biggest weakness on offense is our ball handling by our PG's. Teams who are allowed to play physical and slap the ball away will be a problem.

 

im with you, the whole team has the eye of the tiger.

 

So, he's saying that his stats predict that a team starting with a 9-2 record will go 35-36 the rest of the way? He needs new stats.

 

Huh? I completely disagree with this. Kool-Mo-D goes wherever they want to with the ball. This is just not true IMO. I think our biggest weakness on offense is our reliance on the 3 point shot. Ballhandling is not anything close to something we need to be worried about.