Zach Lowe on Blazers Defense

http://www.grantland.com/blog/the-t...d-trail-blazers-are-scorching-but-can-it-last

Great read here. Some very interesting insights on Stott's conservative defense.

 

Yea Zach is on-point these days. Thought this was interesting:

 

Nice find! I loved the article

 

It's easy, at first glance, to rip Portland apart on the defensive side of the ball. But this article by Lowe is what good analysts do. It's one thing to point out what seems like glaring deficiencies, but too many people give lousy explanations as to "why" because they can't see the big picture. You can't simply look at deficiencies in a vacuum, it IS by design. BNM hit on this a week ago, and that led me to draw a comparison to Money Ball. There are a lot of knowledgeable people out there, and it's nice to see when they (if only a few of them) view Portland through this lens. I think it leads to a better discussion about what Portland is doing right and wrong. Portland winning isn't a fluke and yet there is still a significant amount of media types that aren't buying it. It's nice to see them warming up to Portland's big picture philosophy (however slowly), and realize that what the Blazers don't do great is more of a natural consequence of capitalizing on what they do really well.

This was a good read. Thanks for posting it.

 

If the blazers are lighting it up like they are by mid season, I guarantee many will jump on the bandwagon.

 

Did you not see the response that torpedoed BNM's post? If you didn't see it please go back and read it.

So this right here is the crux of it all. Stotts wants us to defend the 3-point line [check], and give up the mid-range jumper in order to prevent more profitable shots [no check]. We are guarding the perimeter at the expense of the most profitable shots. Only 5 teams allow more point blank attempts than us - LAL/BOS/UTH/HOU(!)/PHI. Aside from HOU, those are all terrible teams that are trying to win the lotto. And then the next closest shot, we rank 3rd worst in OppAtt behind only LAL/SAC. In close mid-range we rank #21. It's only the long mid-range where we rank well (#5), but as a percentage of our opponent's attempts we're giving them 20% more point-blank opportunities than long mid-range (LMR) opportunities. In addition, more 3-point shots (182) have been taken against us than LMR shots (167).

There's some good and some bad here. Our Opp3% is bad (that's bad meaning good for us). But we're allowing essentially the same number of 3s as LMRs - so we're not keeping shooters off the arc as well as we think we are. We're rebounding the ball well. But 51% of our opponents shots are coming within 9' of the hoop, and 38% within 5'.

Any attempt to paint the defense as working "as designed" is just trying to find the right rose-colored lens to look through. It's only taking into account the first half of the sentence and ignoring everything that comes after the metric you want to focus on (defending the 3).

 

Torpedoed??? Really? I specifically said we need to improve our interior defense, without sacrificing our league leading Opp 3FG%. We're only 11 games into the season, with a new scheme and new personnel that are still learning the system and learning how to play together (yet, we are 9-2, go figure). As I said in the other thread, I'd like to see situational double teaming and help defense, when appropriate, to improve our interior defense. Our overall defense is already much better than it was last season, and should continue to improve. Stotts is a smart coach and will make adjustments when necessary. This is a work in progress, not the final product.

BNM

 

Defending the 3 is key at this point in the NBA. If you give up points in the paint but do not foul things kind of equal out. If the fouls pick up then this team will be in real trouble but forcing teams to settle for mid range 2 pointers is better than free points at the line or open threes. Take the three away from Portland and force them to shoot mid range jumpers and the team is probably 4-7 instead of 9-2.

 

I understand that you weren't saying that our defense is perfect. I'm talking specifically about the comparison you made between our team and the league leaders in Opp3% in previous seasons. People - particularly BF - are hailing that as great analysis and evidence that we're a good defensive team. What that analysis left out - and what response "torpedo" showed - was that those teams were also terrific at defending the interior. Those teams weren't good defensive teams because they defended the 3, they were good defensive teams period.

I'm sorry if my wording came across overly harsh. I enjoyed reading your post, and it gave me something to think about.

 

That article is worth reading start to finish.

 

Here is the main difference right now between this year and last year. Robin Lopez and Joel Freeland last year we were 3rd in 3 pt% allowed, we also had JJ Hickson who was often out of position and dreadful on pick and roll defense. Lopez has not been great in pick and roll but his willingness to at least contest shooters as they come into the lane has helped.

 

I try to go along with people who say the defense is not that bad or giving up points in the paint is by design . . . but then I stop and think about it and have a hard time buying it.

Call me old fashion, but giving up that many points in the paint can not be a good thing in basketball. I'm all for guarding the 3 and forcing midrange shots . . . but if teams continue to be as successful scoring in the paint as they have been, this balloon is going to pop and the Blazers will be coming down to earth fast. And I wish I had more hope for interior defense, but I just don't see right now.

I will say that if the Blazers can dramatically improve their interior defense, then this team will be a force to be dealt with in the Western Conference.

 

Fair enough. However, those other league leading Opp 3FG% teams were winning 66 games and NBA championships - and we currently have an even lower Opp 3FG% (lowest since NBA started tracking it seven seasons ago). I don't think were near that level yet. Although I am optimistic that this team will win a lot of regular season games, make the playoffs, and possibly even advance to the second round, I'm not ready to start planning the parade route. Still, winning 50+ and making the playoffs would be a huge improvement.

The other key to Stotts' strategy, and I also touched on this in the other thread, is rebounding. I've mentioned this in several threads, but all 5 of are starters are averaging career highs in RPG, and our guards by a very substantial amount. And I think, like denying the easy 3, his is by design.

So, right now, we're exceptionally good at 2 of the 3 ingredients of playing championship level defense - defending the 3-pointer (especially the corner 3, which is the most efficient offensive weapon in the NBA) and rebounding. Now, if we can improve our interior defense, I may start thinking about that parade route. We may not get there this season, or ever, but I like the improvement we've seen and am enjoying the heck out of the results. It's such a refreshing change from the all-ISO-all-the-time McMillan days. Nice to have a new coach with new ideas.

BNM

 

I don't think the design is to give up points in the paint, Stotts wants low % shots that's midrange not paint points because those are high % shots
The D is trying to stop the 3 point shot and move those shots a few feet closer but our paint protection is bad so instead of making those shots the midrange jumper teams are just attacking the paint.
Our D needs to get drastically better at protecting the paint while keeping the 3 point protection up to force those long 2s which is what our D Is trying to do

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The only reasons it's working as well as it is:

Our Opp 3FG% of 29% is the lowest since the NBA started tracking that stat.
We are one of the top rebounding teams in the league (all 5 starters averaging career best RPG, with our guards and wings limiting long offensive rebounds off missed opponent 3-pointers)
We aren't committing a lot of fouls
We are making 42% of our 3-pointers

All of those things are compensating for our high Opp points in the paint. So to keep winning, we either need to continue to be among the best in the league at ALL four of those things, or improve our interior defense. Not sure if we can keep up our current pace on all four of those things, but I do think our interior defense will get better as the players get used to the system and get used to playing together. We did outscore Brooklyn in the paint (40-30) so that's a step in the right direction. I don't think we need to become the best in the league at shutting down points in the paint. If we can just become average at it, and continue to excel in those other 4 areas, we will win a heck of a lot of games.

BNM

 

I think the plan is to give up jumpers not dunks and layups

 

This is what's called a straw man. I applaud your effort though for going to such length to assert something that no one said. If it's not clear, which seems the be the case: What the Blazers are doing IS by design AND their defense needs to improve.

 

It is all about percentages LA is shooting around 50% between 3-15 feet so I am fine with him shooting that all game. However, his favorite shot is 16-23 feet and he is around 40% from there. Less long jumpers and more shots in the post and LA would easily be a 25-10 guy. He is great now but he could be much better.

 

LA is number 1 in the NBA in total field goals. I say he keeps on shooting.

Tone Says, "That shot is Wet!"