At what point will you believe this team is for real?

Our Strength of Schedule is coming around already: as of this morning, it's slightly above average a 0.20, good for 14th in the league (average of course being 0.00). By comparison, Indiana's is 30th at -3.06.

Additionally, our Defensive Rating has climbed to 11th over all at 104.1, just below the NBA average of 104.0... remember after 5 games it was something like 23rd.

 

Our defense was dammed impressive last night in the 4th quarter. It was a fuggin block party. Lopez was in a zone.

 

Denver winning sure helped.

 

I still don't understand how Sagarin's rating system has us so much lower than Indiana.

 

Points differential. By the end of the season points differential has proven (mainly) to be a better predictor of success than just about anything else - even better than wins and losses earlier in the season.

 

I don't think history would back up this claim.

 

And we'll see where it is at the end of the season. The SRS (Simple Ratings System) from basketball-reference has us 4th at 6.13. That's still a damned good place to be.

 

No doubt

 

I seriously don't give a shit about SOS and all this crap. Just keep winning games. It will all work itself out.

 

These last 2 games have been most impressive. These were tough situations against good teams and both were won with defense suprisingly.

I don't think the team is as good as its record, but this is the most exciting season since the Roy, Lamarcus, and (healthy) Oden team.

The west is so tough we could land anywhere from 3 to 7 in the seedings. I see a first round exit at 6 or 7. A first round win at 3 to 5. But not likely to make it past round 2. This team is awesome for sure, but there's no playoff experience. My concern is who is going to hit the clutch buckets in the 4th quarter playoff pressure? Lamarcus and Dame are capable but untested.

The X factor for me is Wes. If he can sustain his current all-star like play until and throughout the playoffs we are legitimate contenders to make the finals (but there's no beating Miami). That said, I think we are a year, and maybe one piece away from being legit.

 

How was your dream?

 

Expected record based on that point diff formula is 11-4.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/POR/2014.html

 

To the original question of this thread, I'm starting to believe right now. But I guess the question is what does "believe" mean? If it's that the Blazers are a good team that will make the playoffs, put me down for that. If it's that the Blazers will advance in the playoffs, I'm hoping, but unsure. If it's that the Blazers are a title contender, I'm just not that kind of believer. For me to start believing we are contenders I need to see a victory at San Antonio, Miami or Indiana.

 

Which is still pretty damned good considering how poorly this team played at the end of last year and combined with what looked like solid, if unspectacular, free agent signings.

 

That feels right; we grabbed victory from the jaws of defeat two games in a row (Chicago and Golden State), and the pythagorean wins/losses bears this out.

 

That's true. We could have easily been 11-4 if we didn't play out of our minds in the second halves of those two games. The rest were pretty much ours. Although the Phoenix win was really close too.

 

Tied against Toronto at the end of regulation and beat Phoenix by a point where they had the last shot.

 

So we could be 9-6 right now, had luck/drive not gone our way. That is still a respectable record, 6th in the west right now.