Saw this today and thought I pass it along. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-slow-decline-of-speedy-outfielders/
I dont like the breakdown of that chart at all It should be broken down into 3 categories, not 2 26-29, 30-33, 34-37 Also EllSbury's 2011 season is a total and utter outlier. Whether he was on roids or it was simply a career year you can literally throw it out the window as he's never approached anything similar to it. That reduces his WAR by 8.1.You can throw in a 3 or a 4 to normalize it to his career. Then you have the fact he basically missed all of 2010 & half of 2012. Furthermore the guys in that chart played in an era where PEDs and uppers were part of the culture which extended careers. You could put up a similar chart for power hitting OFs and skew it with Bonds, Sosa, Juan Gonzalez, Larry Walker etc. The chart also includes Rickey Henderson who was a bionic physical specimen likely on many drugs and a 1st ballot Hall of Famer. Him being listed in that chart is a complete waste as it skews the #s to use an immortal as a measure of the future success for a solid player. Guys age more radically now. Look at the stats for players 33 & above in 2012 and 2013. Porous. Ellsbury will be 38 when his contract ends. The guy to compare him to his Carl Crawford who is a year older and signed to a similar contract. We can view his seasons as a sign of what to expect from Ellsbury each successive year. From 2004-2010(ages 22-28 Crawford's lowest to highest WAR ranged from 2.5-6.9 and he played at least 109 games each year). So he was much better and much more consistent in his prime than Ellsbury. He's been awful since leaving TB and signing his contract. He is the most relevant "speed" OF to compare Ellsbury to as he makes similar money, has played his career in the same division, and is a similar age.
DLsbury is what many of us called this guy as a Red Sock. Hating this contract isnt being a hater, it's being consistent and not being a homer. The Yankees have pigeon holed themselves now at C(McCann)-1B(Teixeira)-3B(Arod)-CF(Ellsbury)-SP(Sabathia) with 2 or 3 pigeon hole contracts(Cano? Tanaka?) likely looming this offseason. The team that we take the field with in 2014 will be just about impossible to change beyond tinkering in the years that follow and the pigeon holed guys will just be getting farther beyond their prime as they are all on the backend or on the other side of it already. It's all down hill from here. C - Passed on cost feasible Martin last offseason, passed on Pierzynski 2 offseasons in a row, passed on Dioner Navarro a former farmhand who had a great 2013 and would have been a perfect platoon guy with Murphy or Cervelli, and they have now blocked top prospect Gary Sanchez who will need to change positions or be traded OF- Had Gardner who was a similar player to Ellsbury, could have brought back Granderson for 3 years and likely 60-70% of the per annum value, or could have signed Beltran or Cruz for RF Since when did Stolen Bases become a $153 million commodity? And who was Team X that drove his price up so high? Can't wait to see which FA besides Cano gets anywhere near this money. The Choo contract will tell us a lot by how much we overpaid for Ellsbury even in this inflated market. CF Gentry also age 30 was just traded to Oakland for marginal prospects, 3.6 WAR, higher OBP than Ellsbury, 24/27 in steals, slightly lower OPS making $550,000 Nice job Trashman you piece of shit
Did you MLB today where they had the guy on from SABR I think. He was saying that in Yankee Stadium, Ellsbury will become a 20 hr guy. His OPS will rise and that the 187 number for the Yankees is just that. They could save around 40 to 50 million by being under the threshold however, they could make another 40-60 million by being better. If WAR is worth 7 million per game and Ellsbury has a WAR of 7 that equals 49 million, add that to McCann upgrade, and even people who don't like the numbers can't argue it.
^^^ "blasphemer"! ...and loling at bb...he and a few other misguided people simply refuse to acknowedge how much better the Yanx will be in 2014.
