It's sort of fun wading through the evolution of "expert" opinion on the Blazers. This guy seemed kind of harmless, and sort of acknowledges the whole "our predictions don't mean anything even though I still write about it" thing. Pre-season Week 1 … blah blah blah Week 7 Also from week 7: Me neither Matt, but I did know Portland was a play-off team (baring season ending injuries - knock on a lot of wood). And, I’m fascinated it only took you a week, unlike the SI contributor from Homer’s Edge, to realize the Blazers are a play-off team. Also of some humor was his pre-season prediction for "Coach on the Hot Seat". Did you catch it? Pre-season: of all the coaches in the NBA, Stotts was the one he singled out being most on the Hot seat Week 7: Terry Stotts has emerged as the front-runner for Coach of the Year Adorable.
Least he admitted it. I see nothing wrong with what he did. What's wrong with what he did and why did it deserve a thread?
I'v got no problem with any of these "power ranking" guys as long as they admit they are wrong. Its a hard thing to do especially when a team comes from the middle to the end of the pack to suddenly leapfrog everyone that analysts seem to have such a heard time with. Its why everyone ignored Indianas schedule the first 15 games of the season but would always point out the Blazers because Indiana was expected to be really good so they got a pass while we had more work to do to prove we are legit.
Actually, I knew Phoenix was going to be good. When all those people were freaking out after our first loss to the Suns, I was saying they were much better than everyone thought, and that they could be a playoff team. People underrated Phoenix almost as much as they underrated us. I had no idea Boston would be "good," but let's be honest..... "good" in the eastern conference just means you're somewhere near .500, so that doesn't really mean good to anyone in the west. Boston is 12-14..... that's not good.
Ya, most don't, or just say "no one saw this coming". This guy didn't even have Portland in the playoffs to start. I give guys like this a pass though, because they don't follow Portland, and you can see as he got more info, his assessment changes. It's still funny to see the dramatically different takes from pre-season till now - coach on the hot seat vs coach of the year. The guys I have no respect for were still blowing of the Lopez Effect, even after it was obvious during pre-season (leading the entire NBA in rebounding) that this was a much improved team in that department. Not saying they would be the best, but clearly much better than near last in the NBA. 15-20 games later and the Homer's Edge geeks were still incredulous that they were dead wrong about Lopez. And even then resorting to the "we" didn't see this coming. People who understand that game, follow and listen to the players and coaches through training camp, and watched the pre-season with that perspective did see this coming. Not 21-4, but certainly not sub .500. Worst of all, these same people get extremely defensive and reassert how unbiased, pragmatic, and logical they are. I don't care if they have double PhD in Statistics and English. They don't know jack about the anatomy of a winning team, let alone about NBA basketball.
Detroit yes, even though they still haven't quite figured it out. Smith still can't help himself but shoot outside. Nets can't stay healthy, and I have more faith in Boston who has no business being in the play-offs, let alone atop a division.
I like how neither Shaq, Kenny, or Barkley picked the Blazers to make the playoffs but Kenny is now like, of course the Blazers are good.
I obviously didn't expect we would do this good, but I expected us to be a solid playoff team and I thought that should be obvious. Our core stayed the same, everyone had a year of experience and growth. Last year our starters kept us in almost every game, they just didn't have enough in the tank do it all themselves. So it just seemed like simple math that our bench improvements would make a significant difference. The part of the equation that everyone underestimated was the Lopez and LA effect. All these years when LA was crying for a center I just thought he was being uncompromising and maybe a little prima dona, guess I was wrong.
I like how these guys keep saying were going to come back down to earth. With our style of play and grittiness, I dont see this drop off they aree predicting. How many games is it going to take for these guys to understand we are for real, and that we are just continue to get better as our rookies and bench gets playing time and confidence?
I was guilty of the LA is soft mantra for his first few seasons, but didn't get into it much because he was never a real focal point. The last 3 years, I've been saying emphatically that LA is a beast. The thing that sold me was watching the play-offs with Dallas. Dirk/Tyson made it clear for me to put things in perspective in terms of fit. LA was fantastic offensively, and was a pretty good rebounder and a pretty good defender, but never had a 250 lbs meat shield in their prime to play next to, and certainly not while LA was the focal point of the offense. Once it became obvious BRoy was done and Oden was done, Portland never had the coach or the personnel to maximizes LA's skill set. On the Lopez Effect: Stotts had the ability to bring in a new system to cater to LA and did so pretty well last season. Stotts is a players coach. After a year of working together, talk out of training camp, and drastic changes being made on both ends of the court, it should have been clear this team was going to be much better in terms of LA. Stotts scrapped the entire pick and roll defense to cater to Lopez, and it was going to take time to learn it, which makes sense that it wasn't a work of art in pre-season, and still has a ways to go. But that's a sign that things will improve, not remain terrible like last season - the same goes for rebounding. Lopez has legit size, and talk out of training camp was that he works extremely hard, just wants to win and play basketball, is unselfish, and wants to do whatever the team needs which is exactly what he is built for and skilled at. His offensive rebounding prowess was not a fluke, and offensive rebounding is a much better indicator of rebounding ability than is defensive or total rebounds. He also played all 82 games in NO with 2 stretch fours in rookie Davis and Anderson, who are not on the same level as LA (although Davis is certainly well on his way to becoming really something special if he could stay healthy). So Lopez started 82 games where he played the role of being alone on an island in the paint. That experience was disregarded or not even understood by some who weren't sold on the Lopez acquisition. LA specifically talked about how Lopez will help him in training camp. - Boxing out the other side of the paint, and clearing space - Having the size and ability to have LA's back on help D, and vice versa - Forcing teams to choose to give up offensive rebounds/easy Lopez points, OR allow LA to abuse his counter PF, OR force a double team - LA would be match up with a PF, not a center How does LA spell relief? R-O-L... O I've sought counter arguments, and they were extremely weak - often based on a vacuum perception of Lopez as an individual player, and unable to see the affect in it's proper context as the Center of a TEAM. LA had been asking for a giant body to make his life easier. Players know players, and LA was right about Robin. The "experts" who disagreed should have listened.
Another of my least favorite phrases, aside from "no one saw this coming", is "going to come back down to earth." It's like a lazy trump card they pull out to save face and remain stubborn in their belief. How many games do we need to win shooting under 45% for these guys to get the memo. The Blazers are contenders. Recognize. I take Kenny with a grain of salt because the guy clearly doesn't stay up late to watch Portland unless they are on TNT. But it's nice to see that when he DOES watch Portland, he's not still ranting like Charles is about "jump shooting team". It's like if a PF isn't just like him, he can't appreciate their game.
Let them keep saying that. It's fun to see them proven wrong all season long. Eventually, they will be forced to call us legit because we earned it. Until then, I'm enjoying the ride!
a couple of things come to mind Our schedule is going to get tougher. This team has its basic shape, but will be forged in the next twenty games. At that point we will know if they are of the metal that real playoff contenders are made. Aside from that, as stated earlier, just the addition of a semi respectable bench, and a real NBA center almost guaranteed us a seventh or eighth spot this year. As far as the "experts", well, for the most part they have nothing invested in their stated opinion. What they want to be is the guy that can say "See, I told you!" "I knew they could not___________" fill in the blank. This is a win win situation. If they are wrong, they get to spend lots of print explaining the why of it, if they are correct, well, they are a bloody genius.
He was fucking soft and until this year I don't think you could call him a "hard-nosed" player because his defense was so spotty and his rebounding numbers so mediocre. Why is it such a sin to point out an objective truth?
Yes you have a point. There was a spurt when LA was LaMonster, but it only lasted around 30 games. Last season, I started really noticing him understanding what he needs to get to the next level. He wasn't there yet, but he was getting there. But the main reality was he never truly had that banger true center next to him during his prime campaign. Most the time, he was defending larger players because we absolutely sucked at center.
