Top 8 in the West

lol yep, Im doubled down on that. Im surprised by how many injuries, especially knees, in general there have been in the NBA this year. Is it more than usual or does it just seem that way? Seems winning it all is half skill and half luck, I'm just hoping we used all our bad luck from 2007-2012 for awhile. Law of averages will hopefully keep us healthy. Back on topic, there really is to much basketball and variables to lock anyone in at this point, but given what we know it makes for good discussion.

 

Maybe the curse has been moved from the team to the forum. Bunch of people on here "taking one for the team".

 

let's move away from that topic. it's kind of sad to imagine sacrifices to the NBA Gods.

 

Greg Oden was our sacrifice to the basketball knee gods. Should give us a decade of minimal major injuries.

 

Here's Hollinger's current playoff odds.

OK, don't shoot the messenger. I don't necessarily agree with the results that Hoillinger's formula/simulations produce, I'm just using it as a jumping off point for discussion.

Here's how the Western Conference playoff odds look, according to Hollinger:

OKC - 100.0
SAS - 99.6
POR - 99.3
LAC - 97.0
GSW - 93.8
PHO - 87.9
DAL - 73.5
MIN - 69.3

HOU - 61.2
NOP - 14.9
SAC - 1.2
MEM - 1.0
DEN - 1.0
LAL - 0.3
UTA - 0.0

I tend to agree with the very top and bottom. I think, barring catastrophic injury, OKC, SAS, POR, LAC and GSW are all a lock to make the playoffs at this point. I also agree that SAC, MEM, DEN, LAL and UTA really don't have a chance and would be better off going into full tank mode.

Of course, the middle is where it gets interesting. Hollinger's formula thinks Phoenix is a near lock, at 87.9%, but he predicts DAL, MIN and HOU will be fighting or the 7 and 8 seeds.

A couple things that surprise me: That he thinks 16-16 MIN will beat out 21-13 HOU for the 8th seed. I find this especially interesting because he predicts both teams will finish with 47 wins, but MIN will have one less loss due to the cancellation of the game against SAS in Mexico City. I thought the NBA had a policy that canceled games would be made up at the end of the year if they impact playoff seeding. Anyone know if that's the case? If so, where would the game be played? Since it likely won't affect the Spur's playoff seeding, will Pop rest his starters/vets and basically gift the game to the Timberwolves? If so, why even bother to play the game?

I'm also surprised he has the Pelicans odds so low. NOP has a lot of talent, but are a young team. They seem like they are on the verge of breaking out, and even though they've played us tough, they are still only 4-6 in the last 10 games and hovering around .500 in the West won't be good enough to make the playoffs. So, maybe I agree with him after all on this one. As a young team with talent, they will probably continue to play tough at home (currently 9-5) and struggle on the road (currently 5-11), but will most likely be on the outside looking in for the playoffs this year.

BNM

 

I wouldn't count out Minny, NOP or even Denver. Minny and NOP have just 3 more losses than Houston, GS and Dallas. That's not exactly what I would call "locked in" given that today is January 2nd... That's about as premature and exaggerated as everything else on this board these days.

noknobs shakes his head in disdain.

 

That is really surprising. I think Minnesota can make it, but I would be shocked if Houston didn't.

 

I think Denver's early season success was fool's gold. I predicted before the season they were lottery bound. They lost their coach (who won COY last year), their GM, Andre Iguodala, Kosta Koufos and Corey Brewer and Danilo Gallinari tore his ACL in April and was expected to miss at least half the season. Their new GM was basically giving players away for future draft picks. It was clear they intended to stock up on draft picks and tank this season away. I was as surprised as anyone by their early season success, but we are now seeing the real Nuggets team. They won't make the playoffs. They don't want to.

BNM

 

I think we're a lock for the playoffs, but still am cautious about guaranteeing HCA

 

It's interesting to see posters take on Phx and helps me relate to the NBA crew who wonder if the Blazers are for real.

While Phx fans would wonder what they have to do to prove they are for real, I can't help but wonder if Phx can keep it up and wouldn't be surprised if they slipped to 7 or 8 or even out of the playoffs.

I can see why there are analysts wondering if Blazers are for real or suspect they may fall out of HCA. And is that really insulting giving the way we view the Suns? Suns have only lost 4 more games than the Blazers and yet some wonder if they will even make the playoffs while putting Blazers in top 4 by season end.

Not bagging on anyone as this is my mentality as well (Blazers top 4, Suns may drop) . . . just pointing out that maybe it's not as insulting as some make it to be when the national analysts think Ptd will drop from being one of the top teams in the league (record wise)

 

Valid point. I think people are still hesitant to give them their due because before the season it looked like they were trying to tank purposely. Now that is not the case. In fact someone from the Suns said they would do a deadline deal to improve now.

 

Excellent post. I agree on all accounts.

Both Portland and Phoenix are surprises, but in different ways.

As discussed, our bench needs to step it up for us to sustain our top 3 positioning. Not necessarily in total points, but just with better shot selections and less turnovers. Phoenix because of their two good point guards has less of a drop off with their second unit. You barely notice when their second unit is in. But our first unit is better when the game is on the line.

 

I think the difference is we have two stars and they have a mix of solid players without a true standout. Not saying it's right believing this way, but it's the way people think.

I see Phoenix like Denver was last season. Many people, even analysts, thought Denver had no real shot at making the top 5. They made top 3.

Phoenix has a group if good players, and I wouldn't be surprised if they get HCA in the first round. And like Denver, probably lose in the first round because they don't have that star to carry them.

 

I don't recall who it was right now but someone from ESPN picked Denver to finish 1st in the West last season.

 

which would be fine because we would have hca and are undefeated against phx in rose city.

 

With Iggy and Galinari along with 3 solid centers they had much more talent last year.

Denver has the best opportunity to overachieve in the regular season. They play at elevation, their airport is far from the arena. Teams are often playing back to backs when on the road.