One of the twisted pleasures of this season is that it's taken a lot of thinking just to pin down how good or bad we are. We're 4 games out of the #3 seed, and we're also 4 games out of the #3 pick! My own assessment of the team has been a rollercoaster. End of preseason: I thought we looked great and were geared for a title run, albeit as underdogs. After Rose Injury: No longer dangerous, but savvy enough to sneak into the playoffs and maybe give someone a series. 10 games after Rose injury: Complete train wreck and headed for the lottery. After DJ Augustin: Halfway decent again. It's illuminating to see the difference in the team's performance pre and post DJ. Pre DJ (but post Rose), we were a complete trainwreck. Our record was 2-8, and were outscored by an average of 4 points a game, which almost definitely puts us among the bottom 10 teams in the league. Post DJ, we've been 5-6 and some advanced metrics suggest we're better than our record. Our hollinger ranking is currently 97.507 which is 5th best in the eastern conference. The simple rating system (which incorporates point differential and strength of schedule) has us as 4th best in the east. In short, we're sort of looking like the team we were last year, and most of us probably expected once Rose went down. I don't think the correlation between the Augustin signing and our improved play has been a coincidence. Since he's joined the team he's averaged 29mpg, 9.8 points, 5.7 assists, and a 13.4 PER. Hardly anything to get excited about, but it's provided the following benefits: 1). We don't have to play Marquis Teague, and subbing a 0 PER player for a 13 PER player is a big improvement. 2). We don't have to run Hinrich into the ground. After Rose got injured Hinrich was averaging 37 mpg, since Augustin has come over he's averaging 28. 3). He's clearly not a great player, but he's also clearly decent at some things this team desperately lacks. On a team without any dynamic scorers, a PG duo of Hinrich and Teague is pure kryptonite. The Hawks just lost Al Horford for the season, and I think it's defendable to say that right now the Bulls are the third best team in the east, even with our injury situation. Whether or not you think this is good news is of course open to debate, but I think our performance for the last 10 games is worth noting when talking about what direction management will take with the team.
Augustin or not, I don't think Bulls management is very excited about this season. However, I don't think this will translate to any major changes. The Bulls like their key players for next season and beyond and aren't in any hurry to trade any of them (check that, they'll trade Boozer for a song). I suppose the Bulls could end up with HCA...heck, a .500 record might get it done. I know one thing for sure. I'll always remember this season. It's the first time I've had to defend myself for cheering for the Bulls to win...to other Bulls fans. Sent from my GT-P1010 using Tapatalk 2
~45 wins is the high end expectation, and it looks like a struggle to get that. I've not been rooting for the team to lose. I've been rooting for them to win the lotto and get us beyond the 45 win kind if team.
@Transplant: I think you're right.....I doubt Bulls management isn't very excited about this season. Can't say I disagree myself. @Denny I think 37-42 wins is about where we'll end up, which should be good for somewhere around a 4-8 seed this year. The only I team that I think poses a real "threat" to the Bulls this year is Toronto, which is quietly putting together a decent season.
It is stange. Some Bulls fans, Not you Denny, not me. I dont hate losing as I have in the past because of the draft, but I have never seen so many Bulls fans cheer for us to lose, and if we win, oh my God! The depression is alarming! I have to hand it to the players on the Bulls and to Thibs. We are playing to win every game. I will always be a Bulls fan. I enjoy winning more than losing. Always have, always will. The odds of this team getting a game changer in this years draft is slim, very slim. Signing Augustin and having our wing players get healthy has settled us down. We wont get 45 wins. 37-40 sounds more like it
This team, if healthy and playing hard, will be a playoff team. rosenthall is totally right about DJ. Its not that he's great, its just that he's competent. Our guard play before him was the worst I've ever seen, and you need competent guards to win. Teague is an abomination and Hinrich would have died if he had to play all those minutes. Noah is going to keep playing hard and is very good. Deng is in a contract year and will give his all. Gibson is a pro and will keep doing his thing. Hinrich will do what he can. Butler has bought into the Thibs system and is playing for a contract down the road. DJ wants to prove he can be in the NBA still. Boozer does what he does and will keep doing it. Dunleavey is a pro. Thibs is a great coach and has built a great environment for winning basketball here. He seemingly can do it with any competent NBA player. This team, barring major injuries, will be a .500 team, but its fragile and a couple of key injuries can derail the whole thing. Scoring the basketball is the main issue. Heck, if the Bulls get matched up against a non Indiana or Miami team, they could win a playoff series, right? Its not realistic to expect this group of hard working NBA pros to tank a season. If he has competent people, Thibs will find a way to get things done. He's an elite NBA coach.
As for Bulls management, they seemed excited about making the playoffs with Hinrich-Gordon-Deng-Nocioni at around .500 with no chance of winning a title, so this is about the same. Sure, its a letdown going from title contender to "Core 4" level team, but if they think Rose can come back and Mirotic can be a playah they can sign, I would imagine the future looks bright enough for them. The tickets are still selling.
