Coincidence?

I think they first faltered against DET and haven't looked the same since. Sure, they won some (big) games but they haven't looked like a particularly strong title candidate. IMO they peaked with the GS/IND wins. Hopefully we have a second "peak" that we start climbing in April.

 

I haven't been able to watch many games (Working 70+ hours a week the last couple months puts a damper) but What I saw in the Miami games is Miami swarmed the perimeter with a lot of movement on D not giving our guys room to shoot and limiting the ability to pass inside. I am wondering if other teams took note and are playing similarly since then.

 

But, but, but......

 

I would agree with you, but It's so hard to pinpoint things like who they are playing with and against. The scores at the times they are playing. Stuff like that.

 

Postional +/- has got to be one of the most absolute worthless basketball statistics I've ever seen.

Players routinely switch who they are defending, solid defenders have responsibilities to multiple players in pick and roles. Guards have responsibilites to get back on defense and bigs should collapse near the bucket. Postional +/- ignores all of those.

 

That's individual production, not team production. If you look at team production (which is what determines wins and losses), the TEAM plays better with Leonard on the floor than Robinson. Also from 82games.com:

Thomas Robinson Floor Time Statistics:
Min: 18%
Net Pts: -54
Off: 1.08
Def: 1.15
Net48: -8.4
W: 10
L: 17
Win%: 37.0

Meyers Leonard Floor Time Statistics:
Min: 7%
Net Pts: +13
Off: 1.07
Def: 1.04
Net48: +5.3
W: 7
L: 5
Win%: 58.3

So, with Robinson on the floor the team gives up 8.4 more points per 48 minutes than they score and only wins 37% of those minutes. With Leonard on the floor the team outscores their opponents by 5.3 points per 48 and win 58.3% of those minutes.

Again, small sample size caveats apply, but based on the data provided, Robinson's presence on the court has a negative impact on team performance and Leonard's presence on the court has a net positive impact on team performance. And, that's what this thread is about, team performance. If all you care about is individual performance, we should have just kept J.J. Hickson and not traded for Robin Lopez.

J.J. Hickson 2012-13 (Individual) Production:

Own: 21.0
Opp: 20.3
Net: +0.7

Robin Lopez (Individual) Production:

Own: 17.7
Opp: 20.2
Net: -2.5

Like Robinson, Hickson had "superior" individual stats.

J.J. Hickson 2012-13 (Team) Floor Time Statistics:

Min: 58%
Net Pts: -266
Off: 1.05
Def: 1.10
Net48: -5.5
W: 30
L: 48
Win%: 38.5

Robin Lopez (Team) Floor Time Statistics:

Min: 63%
Net Pts: +167
Off: 1.15
Def: 1.06
Net48: +7.7
W: 23
L: 10
Win%: 69.7

But, like Leonard, the TEAM plays better when Lopez is on the court. Anyone who watched the Blazers last year knew that Hickson was a stat padder that didn't help the team win, that he was the weak link in our starting line-up. And, I doubt if there is anyone here that has watched the Blazers play this season that would say Lopez, in spite of his inferior individual stats, hasn't made the team significantly better.

BNM

 

Was typing my response when you posted yours. Great minds think alike. You posted team production per 100 possessions. I posted team production per 48 minutes. In both cases (of course) it shows that the TEAM plays better with Leonard on the court than with Robinson. The sample size is small, but it's the exact same size as the Leonard haters were trying to use to declare victory based on individual production.

BNM

 

"You must spread some Reputation around before giving it to Boob-No-More again."

 

But you were all set to declare victory in your personal war on Meyers Leonard based on the exact same sample size for individual production. When the stats show the TEAM plays better with Leonard on the court than with Robinson on the court, all of a sudden you question the validity of the data. Gee, why's that? Personal agenda, perhaps?

BNM

 

J.J. Hickson begs to differ...

Yep, basketball is a team game, at both ends. Both of these players are very young, very raw, make mistakes and need to improve. Stotts saw something in Robinson's game that caused him to make a change in the rotation, and so far the TEAM performance supports that decision.

Are we losing more? Yes, but that's not because of Meyers Leonard vs. Thomas Robinson, it's because our starters have been playing like absolute shit for long stretches in almost every game (blowout win over Charlotte excluded).

BNM

 

I would like to see Meyers and Robinson play together a little more.

 

But, hopefully only in blowout wins, for now.

Right now, the sample sizes are very small, but Leonard seems to play his best alongside Lopez. I think in terms of basketball IQ, Lopez is a smart player that seems to help compensate for Leonard's low BBIQ. Lopez is our defensive floor general and helps call out what plays the opposing offenses are running and directs his teammates on where they need to go. I think Leonard benefits from this. Right now, Leonard and Robinson, because of lack of experience, both have low BBIQs. So, playing them meaningful minutes together may not work out too well.

Hopefully, they will both develop and this will become a more viable combination in the future. They do seem to have some complimentary skills, but both have significant holes in their games. I do like the fact that Robinson is a great offensive rebounder and Leonard has become a great defensive rebounder (another reason he plays well next to Lopez, a great offensive rebounder) and that Leonard can space the floor so Robinson can attack the rim. I just think we'd get absolutely killed on defense if we played them both together right now - even worse that we usually get killed on defense.

BNM

 

Agreed, so long as it's for the Idaho Stampede. Or maybe the Chicago Bulls after they trade us Noah for a package of crap.

 

I call this lineup "Death By Snu-Snu"

 

In very limited stretches I think it would be interesting to see a lineup of
PG Mo
SG Dame
SF Robinson
PF Leonard/LMA
C Freeland/Lopez

 

Me too!!! But, I doubt if the refs would allow us to play 7-on-5. Although, they did let is play 6-on-5 that one time against Boston. So, maybe it's worth a try.

BNM

 

Good work, Boob.

If one is going to compare the relatively minor individual statistical differences between Meyers and TRob, in the minimal minutes they've played, to assign blame for the recent stretch of .500 ball on Meyers, it would make more sense to me to compare the performance of the players who have a greater impact on those outcomes (the starters) to themselves, before and during this recent slump. IOW: Lillard before and during; Wes before and during; etc.

 

...I think that it might be part coincidence, part not. While the stats don't backup T.Rob, the stats also don't account for pure hustle, determination, toughness, intimidation, and the overall confidence that T.Rob brings to the floor. I feel like our top 7 rotation guys would much rather "go to war" with T.Rob than they would with M.Leo. So with that, I am 100% in the FREE T.ROB camp!

 

I'm not interested. If TRob clogs up our court spacing playing the 4 it'll be much worse with him at the 3.