Is Lillard our MVP?

Discussion in 'Portland Trail Blazers' started by BrianFromWA, Jan 17, 2014.

  1. BrianFromWA

    BrianFromWA Editor in Chief Staff Member Editor in Chief

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    Splits in wins v. losses:

    Wins: 15.6 FGA/g, 40.3% FG%, 41.9% 3pt%, 20ppg/6ast/4reb
    Losses: 18.0 FGA/g, 48.1% FG%, 50.6% 3pt%, 27/4/3. :wow:

    As I showed in the L-Train thread, LMA isn't appreciably better or worse in wins or losses, aside from his rebounding is 12rpg in wins and 8.6 in losses. Dame, however, seems to play best when everyone else is crap and he feels the need to just take over.

    His shooting has improved as the year's gone on:

    NOV: 38.8% FG, 38.4% 3pt, 91% FT
    DEC: 43.9% FG, 47.2% 3pt, 88.5% FT
    JAN: 45.2%, FG, 48.9% 3pt, 90.5% FT

    He's currently shooting 7 shots less per game than LMA.

    Other W/L splits:
    Batum:
    W: 10.6 FGA/g, 48% FG%, 40% 3pt 13.6/6.6/5.7
    L: 10.4 FGA/g, 38% FG%, 23% 3pt 12.3/7.2/5.8

    Wes:
    W: 12.1 FGA/g, 50.0% FG% 46.1% 3pt% 17.6/4/2.3
    L: 11.2 FGA/g, 39.6% FG%, 29.8% 3pt% 13.2/4.9/2.6

    Damian's only shooting 0.5 FGA/g more, but he's almost 4pts/36min better.
     
  2. Nikolokolus

    Nikolokolus There's always next year

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    This seems contradictory based on the splits you showed at the top of your post.

    Regardless, it's an interesting statistic/phenomena.
     
  3. RR7

    RR7 Well-Known Member

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    I'm unsure how him playing better when we lose makes him the team MVP, exactly? Or at least am missing apparently the angle you're going for. He definitely tends to try to step up his game when things aren't going well with everyone else, but that looks like it generally doesn't lead to wins. If the numbers were reversed, I can see a strong case for it.
     
  4. Natebishop3

    Natebishop3 Don't tread on me!

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    Well, I think Brian is trying to say that LA plays about the same regardless of wins or losses, so there's no evidence of him trying to step up his game when the team is doing badly. The stats he listed, however, show that Lillard plays much harder/better(?) when the team is doing poorly. I can attest that I've seen Lillard put the team on his back when they aren't playing well. Sometimes it works, sometimes it doesn't, but he definitely seems to be the one who takes it upon himself to generate scoring when the team is cold.
     
  5. BrianFromWA

    BrianFromWA Editor in Chief Staff Member Editor in Chief

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    Sorry, I meant over last year with the 0.5 FGA - to 4 points per 36 increase.
     
    Last edited: Jan 17, 2014
  6. Draco

    Draco Well-Known Member

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    As I said in another thread the starters play slightly better with Mo Williams in place of Lillard so I'm not sure how you can be in the discussion as the teams best player when the team succeeds without you.

    The team without LaMarcus isn't close to what they are with him. All the worst +/- rankings for the year are with him out of the game. Its like taking Olajuwon off the Rockets title teams. Yes Kenny Smith, Cassel and Horry were insane from 3's but that was because of the big guy.
     
  7. RR7

    RR7 Well-Known Member

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    I agree, I've definitely seen it as well. We all have, or, just not watching. But it seems that when he tries to carry us to wins, well, it doesn't happen. We're 1-4 this year when he scores over 30, 0-5 last season.

    I know it's often because he waits to push until the 4th, sees nobody else is doing anything,a nd then tries to take over. Unfortunately, he waits too long. By design or I dunno, but his uptick in play isn't resulting in wins.

    So you can look at LMA and say he isn't the MVP, because there's no noticeable increase in performance(though I'd say the big rebounding disparity says otherwise), but I don't see how you can look then to someone with a negative correlation in increased statistics and record and say he's the true MVP. The argument would make sense to me in an as goes so and so, so goes the team. But it's the reverse with Dame. The stats shown would argue more that Wes having a good night seems to be the most important to our team success.
     
  8. BrianFromWA

    BrianFromWA Editor in Chief Staff Member Editor in Chief

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    I guess I was saying that the only time that it seems (eye test) that Lillard asserts himself on the floor and makes himself the #1 option is when he feels it's needed and we're down, and he starts destroying people at a level never before seen in NBA history (no one has averaged 27ppg on >50% 3pt shooting). If he was to start with that mindset, and maybe reverse the 23FGA to 17FGA disparity he has with LMA (who is less efficient as he shoots more), what may happen?
     
  9. RR7

    RR7 Well-Known Member

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    But you don't win MVP if you have a .100 winning percentage with those numbers.
     
  10. RR7

    RR7 Well-Known Member

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    Aldridge sees small increases in FG%, FT%, TS%, USG, points, rebounds and assists in wins. As well as a 10 point increase in ORTG. Lillard sees the increase going the opposite way for most, except rebounds and assists.
    It could be more that Aldridge isn't necessarily asserting himself more in wins, but just playing poorly in losses, but I don't see how being more assertive in losses makes someone team MVP.
     
  11. Natebishop3

    Natebishop3 Don't tread on me!

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    Where are you getting that? Didn't Jaynes link a stat that said the the team played it's worst with Mo on the floor?
     
  12. Nikolokolus

    Nikolokolus There's always next year

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    As to the question of whether or not he's our MVP. No, I don't think so ... but I do think he is our most explosive/dynamic player.
     
  13. Draco

    Draco Well-Known Member

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    Maybe its more important for a PG to pass than to shoot?
     
  14. blazedanugz

    blazedanugz Well-Known Member

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    not this year
     
  15. Natebishop3

    Natebishop3 Don't tread on me!

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    LOL you're really grasping at straws man.
     
  16. Draco

    Draco Well-Known Member

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    Jaynes is an idiot. Mo plays a ton of minutes with other reserves so lineups with TRob and Wright have terrible metrics.

    http://www.82games.com/1314/1314POR2.HTM

    The starters outscore the opposition by 11 points. With Mo in place of Lillard they outscore the opposition by 19 points.
     
  17. Draco

    Draco Well-Known Member

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    I think LaMarcus is far and away more important than Lillard, call it what you want.
     
  18. illmatic99

    illmatic99 formerly yuyuza1

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  19. Natebishop3

    Natebishop3 Don't tread on me!

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    Yeah, I can read too.

    The team is a net -7.0 with Williams right now.

    Lillard is a net +7.1 so I don't see how your argument is holding any water. The team plays better without Williams in the lineup.
     
  20. Draco

    Draco Well-Known Member

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