Insider Article by Olney

Discussion in 'New York Yankees' started by Hammerojustice, Jan 29, 2014.

  1. Hammerojustice

    Hammerojustice Chief Caveman, Keeper of Thor's Hammer

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    I saw this linked on MLB Trade Rumors, and somehow the way they linked it, it was linked with the Insider subscription already listed, but the part that was interesting was Olney talking about potential additions via trade (salary dump) that the Yankees might make.


    Early picks for every division
    January, 28, 2014 9:38 AM ET
    By Buster Olney

    There are still some front-line free agents who will sign before the start of the regular season, and the inevitable spring training injuries to come, so it's too early to lock in predictions for 2014.

    But right now, this is what I'm looking at:

    Division winners for the AL -- Tampa Bay Rays, Detroit Tigers, Oakland Athletics
    Wild-card teams -- Boston Red Sox, New York Yankees
    Division winners for the NL -- Washington Nationals, St. Louis Cardinals, Los Angeles Dodgers
    Wild-card teams -- Atlanta Braves, San Diego Padres

    With David Price still in Tampa Bay, the Rays could have an extraordinary rotation. The Tigers may lack thump in the middle of their lineup, but they should be significantly better defensively with more speed and Joe Nathan will stabilize their bullpen. Oakland loses Bartolo Colon, but the Athletics will have Sonny Gray at the outset of the season with what could be an overpowering bullpen. Xander Bogaerts should help the Red Sox get back to the playoffs.

    Washington added Doug Fister to an already strong rotation, and I bet the Nationals will be fueled by what they didn’t accomplish last year. Atlanta has growing money concerns with its young core, but has enough depth to get back to the playoffs. St. Louis looks capable of running away with the NL Central if its young pitching continues to manifest. Though the Dodgers have lineup holes, their pitching staff -- led by Clayton Kershaw and Zack Greinke -- could be extraordinary.

    The two teams I’m most torn about, among those picked for the postseason here, are the Padres and Yankees.

    I wrote here the other day about the Padres' collection of front-line pitching, including the expected return of Cory Luebke and deals for Joaquin Benoit, Alex Torres and Josh Johnson. The big question about San Diego will be whether its lineup will improve, given that it ranked 24th in runs scored last season.

    It's worth noting that the Padres actually scored just 31 fewer runs than the Dodgers last season, in a year in which Everth Cabrera and Yasmani Grandal were suspended, Yonder Alonso was limited to 92 games because of injury and Cameron Maybin played in only 14 games. Only one member of the Padres, Will Venable, played more than 146 games.

    San Diego was basically luckless in 2013 and there's no guarantee that won't happen again. But the Padres have some depth, with the potential to post productive lineups against right-handers and left-handers, because of acute platoon numbers.

    • Venable -- .807 OPS versus right-handers

    • Chris Denorfia -- .799 OPS versus left-handers

    • Carlos Quentin -- 1.057 OPS versus left-handers

    • Kyle Blanks -- .829 OPS versus left-handers

    • Jedd Gyorko -- .829 OPS versus left-handers

    • Grandal -- .752 OPS versus left-handers

    • Seth Smith -- .748 OPS versus right-handers

    Chase Headley should be better, and the Padres can reasonably expect that Cabrera and Alonso are going to play in a lot more games. They’re a really interesting team -- and time will tell whether they can separate themselves from a pack of wild-card contenders that may include Pittsburgh, which must overcome the loss of A.J. Burnett; Cincinnati, which has had a quiet winter; the Diamondbacks, who may still add a needed starting pitcher before the start of the regular season; the Giants, who could be helped by the addition of Tim Hudson and a possible comeback season from a slimmed-down Pablo Sandoval.

    About the Yankees: Yes, their infield is full of question marks -- seemingly the only sure thing is that the quartet you see on Opening Day will not be the same in September -- and they have pitching questions. But when assessing their 2014 playoff chances, we should remember that what they have is tremendous potential for difference-making in-season upgrades now that they’ve moved past the $189 million threshold.

    No longer will they be counting nickels and dimes. New York will be able to take on money, which is a unique power in the middle of a season.

    The Yankees' farm system might be something of a mess, and in a competitive bidding situation for the likes of Price that may well be pivotal. But some teams will get to July and August and start looking to dump money off their 2014 books, and the Yankees will be more willing and able to absorb that cost than other teams -- much in the same way that the Rangers took on Prince Fielder and the money owed to him. That means the Yankees could be in position to take on the onerous contracts of good players who are marketed.

    For example: Someone like Troy Tulowitzki, the Rockies' shortstop, who is owed $134 million for the next seven seasons.

    Let's pause a moment to make this absolutely clear: This is all speculation at this point. There is no indication that Colorado is dangling Tulowitzki; rather, they've made it known they intend to keep him.

    But if the Rockies struggled early and began looking for opportunities to unburden themselves of the 29-year-old's contract, this is the type of player the Yankees would be uniquely positioned to target. A limited number of teams would be willing to take on Tulowitzki's deal.

    Others who could be made available, depending on how their respective teams are faring and whether they might be looking to move dollars in midseason:

    • Billy Butler -- He’s owed $8 million for this season and $12 million for next season at a time when fewer teams are willing to anoint (and pay for) a full-time DH. He’s not really a fit for the Yankees, though, because they're already loaded with DH candidates.

    • Rickie Weeks -- Owed $11 million for 2014 in the last season of his deal before reaching free agency.

    • Jimmy Rollins -- Owed $11 million for 2014 and has a very makeable $11 million vesting option for 2015.

    • Cliff Lee -- Will make $62.5 million in 2014 and 2015, including a $12.5 million buyout on a 2016 option.

    • Cole Hamels -- In second year of a seven-year, $147 million deal.

    • Josh Willingham -- Will make $7 million this year in the last season before free agency.

    • Michael Cuddyer -- Is set to make $10.5 million this season before free agency.

    • Yovani Gallardo -- Teams were concerned by his 2013 performance, and he'll make $11.2 million this year, with a $13 million team option for next season.

    • Jim Johnson -- Oakland is unafraid of making major bullpen changes in a pennant race, and if the Yankees are struggling to fill the closer's role these two teams could be a match, depending on the prospect.

    • Carlos Gonzalez -- Owed $63.5 million for the next four seasons. He's probably a candidate for more of a prospect-driven deal than a salary dump.

    • Matt Kemp -- Owed $128 million for the next six seasons.

    • Carl Crawford -- Given his struggles in Boston, it would seem unlikely the Yankees would consider him. He'll make $82 million over the next four seasons.

    • Andre Ethier -- Owed $71.5 million for the rest of his current deal.

    • Matt Wieters -- The Orioles dangled him in the trade market last winter, and if Baltimore flounders early, it would make sense for them to take offers again. But like Gonzalez, he'd be a candidate for a prospect-driven deal.

    • Mark Buehrle -- He had a 4.15 ERA last season in his 13th consecutive season of more than 200 innings, so he is a plow horse -- and being paid like a racehorse. Buerhle will make $37 million for 2014 and 2015, and rival executives say the Blue Jays made him available in the past year. If he's throwing effectively, this is the perfect salary-dump candidate for a prospect-starved organization as Toronto looks to save as much money as possible.

    • Jose Reyes -- Owed $86 million for the next four seasons including a buyout of his 2018 option. He is 30 years old, and if the Blue Jays were willing to eat some of his contract, he could be interesting for a team that may soon need a shortstop -- such as the Yankees.

    The Royals might have their best team in the past two decades, and may well reach the postseason; if I don't pick the Yankees, I'll probably go with the Royals because of their dominant defense and bullpen. The Indians' offense should be better. The Angels' rotation should be improved, and they have the best player in the sport. The Orioles' waning chances seem to be predicated on whether they get a couple of unexpected pitching performances to complement their solid everyday lineup.

    For the readers: What would your picks be?

    Around the league

    • Within this piece, there is word that the Phillies have hired a statistical analyst.

    • Justin Masterson and the Indians have shelved talks about a multiyear deal.

    • Jerry Remy is returning to broadcasting. Remy’s return looks like the wrong move.

    • David Ortiz wants a new contract, but the Red Sox should stick to the plan, writes Gerry Callahan.

    Moves, deals and decisions

    1. The Reds want to keep Homer Bailey.

    2. The Brewers signed Pete Orr.

    NL East

    • Craig Kimbrel was among those attending the Braves’ early camp.

    • Brandon Beachy is hoping his frustration is in the past, as Mark Bowman writes.

    • Drew Storen wants to keep rolling.

    • Intensity will be Matt Williams' calling card, writes Mike Harris.

    • The Phillies' rotation worries Ryne Sandberg.

    NL Central

    • A Cardinals prospect is looking forward to spring training.

    NL West

    • Ubaldo Jimenez is still available, writes Troy Renck, who doesn’t think there could be a match with the Rockies.

    AL Central

    • Victor Martinez wants to be back for 2015.

    • Yordano Ventura was named one of the top minor leaguers.

    AL West

    • The Rangers could have another move, writes Gerry Fraley.

    • Corey Hart believes his knees have improved, writes Bob Dutton.

    From the story:

    "I've ramped up everything," he said Sunday when the Mariners concluded their two-day FanFest at Safeco Field. "I’ve been running bases and doing baseball stuff. I haven’t gotten on the field yet to do fly balls, but I’ve been doing simulated ground balls to work on my footwork and agility. It’s been progressing. I’ve been able to do everything. It’s been nice."

    There might be no aspect of the Mariners’ upcoming spring camp that will be more closely watched or more crucial to their success than Hart’s ability to handle the daily grind on his knees after missing all of last season.

    "Does he hit the ground running?" general manager Jack Zduriencik said. "We’ll have to find out. He’s certainly talented. He could be a really good piece for us."



    I still think it makes sense for either the Mariners or the Rangers to sign Nelson Cruz.

    Other stuff

    • Giants coach Tim Flannery did a great thing.

    • The bat that Roger Clemens threw at Mike Piazza is up for auction.

    • The Cubs asked for a sign in right field.

    • Carlos Zambrano is sorry for a brawl.

    • Vanderbilt stabilized its recruiting class.

    And today will be better than yesterday.
     
  2. yankeesince59

    yankeesince59 "Oh Captain, my Captain".

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    ...that was exactly what I was referring to in the other thread...(future moves) It is a long way from now until August and instead of making moves now, the Yanx may very well wait until after ST and before the trade deadline. Troy Tulowitzki's name has been mentioned as a possible pick up. A team like the Rockies won't be concerned as much in acquiring blue chip prospects in return, if they are really wanting to dump the salary of a player like Tulo.
     
  3. Hammerojustice

    Hammerojustice Chief Caveman, Keeper of Thor's Hammer

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    yeah... but it's also been mentioned there is absolutely no intent for the Rockies to move Tulo... fwiw
     
  4. yankeesince59

    yankeesince59 "Oh Captain, my Captain".

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    ...there have been reports both ways...hard to know for sure what to believe...it would be a great pick up for the Yanx...but again, who knows what will happen?
     
  5. totus44

    totus44 Lord of the Dark Side

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    Would love to see another reporter compile all the trade predictions made by the pundits and assign batting averages. I can't imagine they are ever above .250.

    Whether its talk about Drew or Tulo, etc. The question there is....will we really have a 40 year old playing SS?
     
  6. yankeesince59

    yankeesince59 "Oh Captain, my Captain".

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    ...I don't think there's any way that Jeter plays more than 100 games at SS.

    ...as far as the "pundits" and so called experts, remember their predictions for the AL East last year?...lol
     
  7. Hammerojustice

    Hammerojustice Chief Caveman, Keeper of Thor's Hammer

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    And take on all that salary though?
     
  8. totus44

    totus44 Lord of the Dark Side

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    100 games at short, That's a lot Nunez.....oh well at least I won't forget what it looked like having Posada running the bases.

    But in all seriousness, we have DHs. Jete won't get those spots. Can't see him being a part time player.
     
  9. totus44

    totus44 Lord of the Dark Side

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    Sux just hung up #3 in a decade. I think the Steinbrenners will spend whatever it takes to put an end to that.
     
  10. yankeesince59

    yankeesince59 "Oh Captain, my Captain".

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    ...relatively speaking, it's not a big contract...and for the best SS in the game, I'd do it in a minute.
     
  11. totus44

    totus44 Lord of the Dark Side

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    Sure...why not. We all know ARod is done and gone.

    But I have to ask....we can spend money like no tomorrow on new guys. But the guy we knew, Cano, we were sticking to a budget. That tells me something, either about him as a teammate, etc. Or there could greater flexibility with openings at both 2B and 3B, should Jeter be willing to move.
     
  12. yankeesince59

    yankeesince59 "Oh Captain, my Captain".

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    ...that's certainly a possibility.

    ...one of the things that ticked me off about the Cano deal is that many of the "haters" were claiming that it was the Yanx fault he went to Seattle because the Yanx "set the market" by giving Elsbury that big contract. I really don't see the logic in that kind of thinking.
    ...It was actually Cano himself who "set the market" by turning his back on the Yanx by turning down the 7 year/$175 Mil offer from the Yanx. At that point, the Yanx realized that losing Cano was a real possibility and looked at other areas to improve the team...then and only then was the offer made to Elsbury.

    ...but yeah, according to Cano, the Yanx "didn't give him any respect"...give me a f'n break.
     
  13. totus44

    totus44 Lord of the Dark Side

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    ^^^^ I'm surprised the haters haven't pulled the race card. Yanks have no problem tossing money at Whites and Asians. Oh, and a Native American.

    :facepalm
     

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