We have 2 more years to make a decision on Barton, 3 more on TRob and Leonard and 4 more on C.J. If any of them prove worthy of a big money contract by then, I think Paul Allen will open his wallet and pony up - as long as the team is in contention for a deep playoff run. Allen got tired of overpaying for underperformance. With this current group performing better than expected, I think he'd be willing to pay what it takes to keep the core together and strengthen the bench - whether that means retaining any of our young guys who show significant improvement, or bringing in more proven veterans. The Blazers haven't paid any significant luxury tax in a decade. If you count this season, where they are about $10 million under the tax threshold, the Blazers have actually received more in luxury tax payments than they've paid out over the last 10 seasons. Counting this season, they've only paid luxury tax in 2 of the last 10 seasons. And in those two years ($5.9 million in 2008/09 and $2.3 million in 2010/11), it was nothing like what they paid back in the early years of the luxury tax ($52 million in 2002/3 and $28.8 million in 2003/04). Here's a summary of the luxury taxes paid, per season, by all NBA teams from the start of the luxury tax in 2002/03 through the end of last season. This year, Brooklyn will pay as much in luxury taxes as the Blazers have in the entire history of the luxury tax. Good thing that Russian guy is rich as fuck. Still, I'd be mad as fuck if my payroll + luxury tax was was over $200 million and I was getting blown out by 44 points. With that kind of payroll, I'd expect to be on the giving end of that kind of blowout. "Worst" case, one, or more, of Barton, TRob, Leonard and/or C.J. blows up and gets a big money offer sheet as a UFA. We match, if we think they are worth it, or threaten to match to work a sign and trade to get back a proven veteran on an expiring contract plus draft picks to help replenish our bench with young guys on cheap rookie scale contracts. Given Paul Allen's vast wealth and desire to build a contending team, I just don't see any downside to our young guys improving. It will make our bench better as they are improving, and of they get really good, we will decide if we want to keep them or trade them for more affordable assets. BNM
Nice post Schilly. This is true. There is nothing wrong with the talent on our bench. Numerous players can step forward and play with our starters. The talent and depth is there. The problem this year has been the lack of chemistry when the bench plays together. Getting the right combination has been a struggle. The number of unforced turn overs is a good indication of players not used to playing together and not trusting their teammates. They often try to do things on their own. They are not playing selfish, they just don't have the chemistry like teams who have played together longer. Part of it could be the system and coaching, but none-the-less the talent is there on the bench. Sure they could always use an all star who comes off the bench (i.e Ginobili or Ray Allen) but overall it's not that bad.
I think the Blazers are sitting pretty good with the contracts of their bench. The challenge will be keeping the starters together after next year. Most of our bench is still on their rookie contract that are very reasonable for multiple years to come: - CJ McCollum, thru '17/18 at $2.7M. - Meyers Leonard, thru '16/17 at $4.2M. - Thomas Robinson, thru '16/17 at $6.2M. - Victor Claver, thru '15/16 at $2.2M. - Will Barton, thru '15/16 at $1.2M. - Allen Crabbe, thru '15/16 at $1.0M. - Joel Freeland, thru '14/15 at $3.1M. Evaluate his progress next year and decide if he's worth keeping. - Dorell Wright, thru '14/15 at $3.1M. Probably let him walk to free up space and money. - Mo Williams, thru this year and said he would opt out. $2.8M. Probably will get a better offer with another team. This frees up some money to pay our starters. - Earl Watson, thru this year at $1.4M. Probably wont be resigned. Frees up money and space. All of our starters are under contract thru next year, so we can watch their development to see how much we'll want offer them to stay. Although I wouldn't call our bench "strong", I do think it's "deep" with Potential talent. I'm not a fan of that P word, but we certainly have the luxury of good contracts at the moment, and can watch them develop over the next few years.
The only significant off-season contract decisions facing the Blazers next summer are a contract extension with LMA and whether to use their non-taxpayer MLE on Mo or for other free agents. The summer of 2015 is the big decision time for Lopez and Matthews. Wright's deal is up then as well. IIRC, that's the summer that the Blazers could also agree to a contract extension with Lillard. The summer of 2017 will be fish or cut bait time on Robinson, Leonard, Crabbe, and Lillard (assuming that they haven't previously reached an extension agreement). I don't see there being enough money to keep all of those guys without going seriously into Luxury Tax territory. Maybe PA will do that, but it's equally likely that some of those guys are going to be wanting to move on to a club where they can start.
Good points. I think LaMarcus is almost a lock at max. With CJ and Barton and potentially Crabbe filling the shoes of Williams, I'm guessing we'll probably look to use the MLE for a solid Big or potentially a PG. Lopez is an anchor. I can't see us flinching on getting him locked up long term. Is Matthews the odd man out?
I read this as a thread where a national guy said something positive about the bench. I don't see anyone using Fratello's words, other than the OP, as some sort of unquestionable words of faith.
The great thing for the Blazers right now is that they are basically playing the rookie-contract/NFL QB game with Lillard right now. As in, production from the floor general position that leaves more money to fill other gaps. Seattle still has 2 more years of Russell Wilson making rookie money, and Indianapolis is in the same spot. San Francisco still has one more year with Kaepernick at his rookie deal. Same with Carolina and Cam Newton. What I'm getting at is that Portland is getting elite level play from a PG who is far outperforming his contract, which clears up space over the next two seasons to perhaps overpay for a veteran or two if the right deal presents itself. It's a great position to be in for the Blazers, and if people think the team is good this year, wait until next year, when both RoLo and Lillard are still on great deals, and a consolidation trade (maybe involving Wes?) can be made to add depth and some defense. The window is just beginning to open for Portland right now, and I actually like the future of this team right now than I did before Roy got injured, just because of how the salaries line up.
When I see Fratello I think of how his lackadaisical coaching crashed the whole Ted Turner NBA business model. Fratello let Dominique Wilkins set a selfish example to the other players on America's Team. Man, what a bunch of selfish toughs that team was under Fratello's "shrug my shoulders in helplessness" leadership. He escaped to the media to be a cartoonish Czar of the Telestrator, and he's incompetent at that too.
My quick Summary: Outside of Mo Williams who completely sucks, the argument that we're deep can be made. However, we don't really give enough minutes to the Bartons/Leonards/Clavers/CJs of the team to really know. Lopez is probably the team's MVP. ============= NetRtG is the #points the team scores when they are in the game minus the #points the opposing teams get per 100 possessions. Basically, it shows by how many points we are outscoring the other team per 100 possessions. Lillard: 118-110 = +8 Lopez: 126-107 = +19 Aldridge: 109-104 = +5 Matthews: 119-109 = +10 Batum: 114-107 = +7 Mo: 102-110 = -8 Freeland: 110-107 = +3 Wright: 109-108 = +1 Robinson: 102-104 = -2 Notes: These are season totals (41-18 = 59 games played so far) The players not listed have played less than 500 minutes this season. Taken from basketball-reference Lillard plays a lot of minutes with the bench who have negative netrtgs, at the expense of his own stats. Conversely, Williams plays a lot with the starters who have positive netRtGs, inflating his stats. The team's netRtG is 112.5-107.3 = +5.2 Here's a very good video on why Robinson's NetRtG is negative (he makes a LOT of dumb plays):[video=youtube;87no8uEk6ks]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=87no8uEk6ks[/video] Here's another very good video that explains how Lillard is among the league's best offensive players:[video=youtube;-DTi88jYjOA]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-DTi88jYjOA[/video]
In a similar vein, I like it more when someone I don't know compliments my wife instead of insults her. Go figure.
You might want to take another look at my original post: "I find it interesting that a guy like Fratello, who used to coach in the NBA, and who watches the NBA for a living, thinks we have an excellent bench. Maybe our playoff prospects are better than we think." I was throwing out Fratello's comment to offer a different insight on our team, not as "unquestionable words of faith." When I hear an opinion about the Blazers from a guy who watches ALL of the NBA teams for a living, I think it's worth noting--and it's at least as relevant as the opinions of homers and embittered Blazer fans who believe something is absolutely true and refuse to give it up.
I hate to break it to you but if not for Mo Williams the Blazers would not be in the position that they are in right now. You may not agree with some of his playmaking but he is a vet and he is very good for the young guys.
Yeah, Mo's really inefficient but his absolute numbers (assists and FGs made) are what we needed this year. Earl Watson's got a fork in him, and we have no other ball handlers, so Let's Go Mo. After this season, though, if we can find a decent ball handling point guard, or manufacture one, we will likely be in an even better position.
I don't want to turn this into a Mo Williams thread, but our team is being outscored by 8 points per 100 possessions when he's in the game - worse than anyone else on the team by far. Honestly, I wouldn't care in he was scoring 30 ppg with 10 ast. It wouldn't matter if every time he plays we're outscored by a lot which is exactly what is happening.
Can we 'trade out' Mo for Aaron Brooks? He (Brooks) is unrestricted this summer, no? Would he fit what Stotts wants off the bench? Or are we just going to go with CJ and use our MLE for other positions?
