I was feeling pretty good, overall, about where the Blazers were and their potential to win a first-round series until I read your post. Thanks for crapping on my excitement and bringing back my realism.
I was actually thinking about starting a similar thread on Saturday morning, but it would have been just about us, the Clippers and Rockets in the race for HCA in the West. I looked up the remaining schedules for all 3 teams and projected wins and losses, but got busy with other things. That's how I came to the conclusion that the Clippers will pass us for the 3rd seed. The good news is, if it comes down to the very end for us vs. the Clipper for the 3rd seed, we would control our own fate. We play the Clippers, in Portland in the last game of the regular season. Winning that game, would also give us the tie breaker vs. the Clipps. So, not all hope is lost. Concerning us vs. Houston, I do have some good news for you. While Houston doesn't have any road trips longer than 3 games remaining, they play MIA twice, IND once and OKC twice in the next month. They also have one game left against the Clippers, who will be battling for HCA and the Spurs, which may be a gimme. It's the second to last game of the season and if the Spurs have HCA locked up, Pop will rest his starters and raise the white flag. Yes, thanks to the two remaining 5-game road trips, we have a tough schedule, but we also have a lot of winnable games. If we can take care of business and win the games we should win, and we beat the Clippers and Rockets head-to-head, we could still hold onto the 3rd seed, or at least claim the 4th seed and HCA in the first round - which I think will be HUGE for this young team. I don't see us getting past the first round if we drop to the 5th seed and face the Rockets in the first round. They are a tough match up for us, and they have two superstars that get superstar treatment from the refs. The good news is one of those superstars doesn't take advantage of all those extra free throws. The bad news is even when he's missing his FTs, those superstar calls can get Robin Lopez in foul trouble and Dwight Howard has already shown us what happens when he's guarded by Joel Freeland and Meyers Leonard - it's not pretty. And, for some reason, Howard seems to channel his inner Calvin Murphy when he plays against us (19/27, or .704 FT% against us this year). Hopefully, he wouldn't shoot as well from the line against us with the added pressure of the playoffs. At the very least, he is due to regress to his normal ~.500 FT% against us. BNM
It's too bad that the "tiebreakers" and "playoff tiebreakers" contradict each other in regards to the divisional and conference records. Two Teams Tied (1) Division leader wins tie from team not leading a division. (2) Better winning percentage in games against each other. (3) Better winning percentage against teams in own division (only if tied teams are in same division). (4) Better winning percentage against teams in own conference. (5) Better winning percentage against teams eligible for playoffs in own conference (including teams that finished the regular season tied for a playoff position). (6) Better winning percentage against teams eligible for playoffs in opposite conference (including teams that finished the regular season tied for a playoff position) (7) Better net result of total points scored less total points allowed against all opponents (“point differential”). Unless OKC drops some conference games and we win some, our best goal could be home court advantage in the first round.
Canzano agrees, though he says he is a shocked a proclaimed Blazers fan would not be a complete homer.
Yep, which is why I think it's important that we have HCA if we get them. Of course, there is also the possibility Houston moves up to the 3rd seed and we end up facing the Clippers in the 1st round. I already dread the constant whining from Doc and CP3 if that happens. Man, a 7 game series with whining after every call/non-call would be brutal. BNM
We had HCA against Houston back in the Roy days, and it didn't help at all. I would tank just to avoid those fuckers.
Totally agreed, actually. I had done the same thing (reviewed the remaining games over the weekend) and had pretty much come to the same conclusions. The biggest curveball in all of this is that I'm not really sure what we have. We're 59 games in, and I don't really think we have a clue as to what we really have. We were on fire to start the season. Beyond that, we've been inconsistent, often playing equal to our daily opponent (well, just slightly better or worse). During our struggles, we lost to teams we should not have lost to. We blew some games we had under control. And then, we maybe turned it around while one of our All-Stars was injured and our frontcourt was decimated. If the Blazers finish the season the way they started it, the sky is the limit. I have no doubts we'll end up making the playoffs, but I'm just curious which team we're going to see for the remaining 23 games and beyond.
blazers need to match up against dallas in 1st round then go against spurs the next round, LA will take over the 1st round and in the 2nd round Lillard and Batum will explode against spurs
Bring on Houston, we owe them one. I know they have Harden and Dwight and that Beverly has caused Lillard problems. But I'll put my money on Lillard coming through when it counts and Dwight disappearing in the playoffs.
This is true. Also, DHawes22, SA has tiebreaker over us because they are currently leading their division. Two totally different teams on both sides though.
I know but if we are tied at the end of the season, the first tie breaker is if you are a division leader. Even if we're 3-1 against them.
Different teams, different coaches. Nate was absolutely HORRID at making mid game and mid series adjustments. Although the Rockets are still a tough match up for us, I think we're a better, more balanced team this time around. Back then we were too dependent on Roy, and a lot of that was McMillan's stagnant, one-dimensional, rigid offense. This time we have two all stars that are averaging over 21 ppg, and have Wesley Matthews averaging 16.5 ppg. Also, this year's LaMarcus Aldridge is 5 years older and 5 years better. Back then, he was 23 years old, averaged 18.1 ppg and 7.5 rpg. Most importantly, he was easily intimidated and out muscled by Houston's more physical players. This year. he's averaging 23.2 ppg and 11.3 rpg and not easily intimidated or pushed around. Yeah, the Rockets are a tough match up, but if we do end up facing them, I think it's far from a foregone conclusion we would lose to them in a 7 game series. BNM
I wonder if Minnesota still has a chance. They won big tonight and they're healthy now. They're only 4 losses behind Dallas and Memphis.
They won by 4... and gave up 45 in the 4th quarter and almost blew a huge lead.... so yeah, "They won big."
HCA? It's not a given that we get in. Let's see where we are after the next 7 games. ATL, the 5 game trip from Hades, and then Golden State at home. Could be a lot closer to Mrmphis than most people realize. If last night was any indication, it's going to be a long 22 games to finish the season. Wesley is killing us right now. < 50% FG in 14 of last 16 games. You start to notice his deficiencies more when the shots don't fall. He's getting looks, but his confidence is shot. We were not defendable when he and Batum were hitting open 3s early on. Made life easy for LA and Dame. Only guy playing as good or better than the 31-9 days is RoLo. I thought Wesley was just in a slump, but this goes back to January. Don't know if he's banged up or psyched out, but it's killing our offense (and we all know defense is never going to be our calling card)
