From everything I've read, Anthony's the Bulls #1 offseason target and we all know the reasons why he would be. I just don't know why I (or anyone else) should believe that there's a reasonable chance for Anthony to end up here. Anthony made $21.7mil this season. He has an option to make $23.4mil next season. Despite the fact that he'll be 30 next week, it's pretty much a given that the Knicks would love to sign him top a 5-year contract for well in excess of $100mil. If the Bulls amnesty Boozer, renounce Hinrich, Mohammed, Augustin and Fredette, agree to leave Mirotic in Europe for another year and sign their two first-rounders for a total of $3.0mil first-year salaries, their cap situation should look something like this: Derrick Rose 18,862,875 Joakim Noah 12,200,000 Taj Gibson 8,000,000 Mike Dunleavy 3,326,235 Jimmy Butler 2,008,748 Tony Snell 1,472,400 2 first-round rookie (est) 3,000,000 4 vet mins @$507,336 per 2,300,000 R. Hamilton 1/3 of $1mil amortization 333,334 Team Total 51,503,592 Estimated salary cap 62,000,000 Estimated cap space 10,496,408 It has been speculated that Anthony might be willing to sacrifice some money for a chance to go to a contender (for the purposes of this speculation, the Bulls are considered a contender), but $10.5mil won't get it done. It appears to me that one of Rose, Noah or Gibson (Gibson, most likely) would need to be moved, with little or no salary coming back in order to make a $18mil FA offer to Anthony. One rub there is that losing Gibson (and moreso with Rose or Noah) would seem to significantly affect the Bulls status as a contender. Alternatively, the Bulls could try to get the Knicks to send Anthony here in a sign-and-trade with Gibson (and maybe others) going out and Anthony coming in. This still leaves the question of whether a core of Rose, Anthony and Noah along with a collection of and journeymen is a team worthy of Anthony's salary sacrifice. I don't see Anthony taking significantly less money to come here. I don't see the trading partner that would be in the position to trade for Gibson using purely cap space. I don't see why Anthony would believe that a starting 5 of Rose-Butler-Anthony-?-Noah would be so much better than Felton-Shumpert-Anthony-Stoudemire-Chandler. Anybody have any thoughts. Have you read a good article on the subject? Thanks.
I don't think it's about freeing up enough cap space to sign him, but to facilitate a S&T. The bulls would offer cap space, ballast to make salaries work, and draft picks or players to sweeten the deal. And when Melo signs elsewhere, maximize PROFITs.
Here's your starting lineup, post trade (including Taj, plus both 1st round picks and even Mirotic in the deal): Rose, Jimmy, Noah, Dunleavy, Melo Re-sign DJ and even Kirk. Keep Brewer. Bench would be DJ/Kirk at guard, Brewer at SG/SF, Snell at SG/SF, JR Smith at SG/SF, Smith at C. Note: I like Kirk for 4th guard at vet minimum. That's what he should have been 2 years ago.
Is this what you think will happen? That they'll give up Anthony and take back 2 PFs who can then share time with existing PFs Amare and Bargnani? Obviously other shoes would have to drop. In your scenario, what do you figure Anthony will sign for and for how many years? I've never liked J.R. Smith, but in order for the Knicks to do this deal, they have to absolutely hate J.R. Smith and the contract they signed him to. Right?
It seems Smith has worn out his welcome in NY. The untying of shoe laces. Signing his contract extension then having knee surgery a few days later. The Knicks were 3.5 points per 100 possessions better with him off the court. I've seen it suggested a few places that taking him off the Knicks' hands would be a way to sweeten a deal for Melo. I think Anthony signs a contract starting at $20M or $21M. He's willing to take a hair cut, perhaps, of $1M to $2M. A far cry from your scenario where he'd have to take a $10M+ salary cut to sign as a FA. The question is whether the Knicks would facilitate a deal once he's made it very clear he wants out.
Nice post. Let's game this out. I think the takeaway is, as you suggest, that Carmelo Anthony probably isn't going to sign with the Bulls. If the Bulls are able to acquire him something along might happen: 1) The Knicks offer Anthony closer to 5 years/starting at about 20 per than a max deal. 2) The Bulls find someone to take Mike Dunleavy ($3,326,235) off the team's hands without sending any salary back. I don't find this unlikely. Dunleavy isn't a bad signing at 3.3M and the Bulls could always package a heavily protected first or a second to make this equal value. 3) Mirotic doesn't count against the cap this upcoming season, and remember, the Bulls can always sign him using an exception so he's really a non-factor in all of this. 4) Taking into account the above moves you have 14M to offer Anthony in free agency. That means that Gibson has to also go right? Again, I think you could move Gibson receiving no salary in return. The guy was a real -- not fake -- 20 and 10 guy when he started last season; he's destroying one and one matchups on offense; and he's one of the best defensive pfs in the league. His salary is an asset at 8M. 5) So here's the thing, if you're Garpaxdorf you make that trade right? You'd give Gibson away for free so that your franchise can sign 'Melo starting at around 21M? 6) I think the Bulls have some leverage here; and if you're Phil Jackson don't you recognize that and try to get something in return? If you're the Knicks you could ask for three firsts and Mirotic? You could ask for four firsts? Isn't that worth whatever blow back that's coming your way for trading 'Melo. Why wouldn't NY assist a trade, especially if you know the Bulls have the ability to acquire him anyway. Edit: Have I made any mistakes here? Double edit: Boozer's contract does nothing to mess up NY's free agency window. They might even be able to ship his contract to another team at the deadline, as an expiring, for picks. If you're Phil Jackson, you have to be a little pissed that the only available route for remaking your roster is free agency because the franchise has shipped all of its draft picks. Dolan hired you to remake the roster and you likely may not have the opportunity to do so because you have almost no assets to begin with. The Knicks could come away from an Anthony deal with a Herschel Walker type haul of draft picks.
I would certainly think NY wants 2 or 3 first round picks and Mirotic in the mix. If you notice, my lineup after dealing Taj and Boozer has no draft choices in. It.
I wouldn't ship Gibson in a move for Anthony. I think you have enough leverage out of the fact that you could sign him outright to make something happen. I just checked and the Cavs apparently received 2 firsts and 3 seconds to facilitate a move for James. The Raptors got 2 first round picks for Bosh. So two first looks to be about market rate -- and mind you those were two first from what you thought would be a near championship team which are way less valuable than the Bulls' two picks this season.
You need enough salary to make the trade work. The Raptors and Cavs got giant trade exceptions as well as the picks. In our case, we are trying to foist a player on them that our own management has talked up as hugely overpaid.
Pau Gasol was traded for three players and two first round picks. And the Grizzlies had a lot less leverage since everyone knew Gasol had to go.
According to Basketball-Reference.com, Chicago scored an additional 4.9 points per 100 possessions when he was glued to the bench and allowed opponents to score an extra 3.2 when he was on the floor*during the regular season. Obviously, that's not good. And it got worse during the playoffs. Boozer dropped the Bulls' net rating by 8.1 points per 100 possessions during the regular season, and that number jumped to 20.9 when past the 82nd game of the campaign. Yes, Chicago outscored the opposition by 5.0 points per 100 possessions when he wasn't playing and was overmatched by 15.9 when he was on the court for the postseason festivities. Ouch.
All that for only 15.3M/year? Love indeed. I don't know that mgmt has really slagged Boozer in public or elsewhere. Clearly though his declining performance suggests the Bulls may not think he's worth that money compared to shopping for an upgrade.
I agree. I can't recall any management statements even mildly disparaging Boozer. As I've said before, it's nothing personal, but the time has clearly come for Boozer and the Bulls to part company.
Do you recall any management statements (aside from Thibs) to the opposite? Defending him against various criticism? I think they let it stew and their inability to trade him will be the result. He's going to do great for the Spurs next season. BTW, has Bleacher Report ever been a credible source of news?
