A new direction: leaving the free agency train wreck behind once and for all

I thought K4Es post in the other thread was informative. I've had some time to let the news sink in that Anthony is going to be joining James, Bosh and Wade in Miami. I can't claim to be disappointed. We all knew something like this was going to be the eventual income.

My big take away is that it's time for a new direction; and that new direction is turning to the draft. The Bulls are never going to win free agency. It's going to be fifteen straight years of looking to hit a home run in free agency only to end up with an infield single. The Bulls are not going to sign James or Anthony, and Lance Stephenson is not going to win you a championship.

My new ideal off season is this: trade Noah to the Cavs for the first pick. Trade up and draft Stauskas; bring Mirotic over from Europe. All the sudden you have a young, dynamic (and cheap) team with a ton of shooting to mask Butler's and Rose's deficiencies. Look to sign a couple of value adds in free agency and you're set to make a run the year after next. You've also added three players with the potential to be the caliber of stars who carry a team to the playoffs.

Who's with me?

 

The frustrating thing I think from a management perspective is that the Bulls paint themselves into a corner. We might have to come to grips that the Bulls simply are not a destination franchise for the NBA elite.

The Bulls build Cap Space, pine for the elite stud, get turned town, and end up overpaying for a Tier 2 guy. I appreciate Carlos Boozer's game but the Bulls have been paying him too much money relative to what he brings to the court over the life of that contract.

And there is always fallout from these big tier 2 signings, other than simply overpaying for a guy relative to production. The Bulls missed out on the prime years of Tyson Chandler because of the decision to build Cap Space and blow it all on Ben Wallace. The Bulls could have kept Luol Deng and Omer Asik around if Boozer didn't make so much $ or if we had a Boozer-esqe player on the roster and paid him what he was worth.

You have to overpay to land free agents, and the Bulls don't ever seem to land the free agents worth paying top $ for. A focus on developing young talent and turning them into the next Taj Gibson might be a better route. All of this is assuming that Rose and Noah can be elite players the next 3-5 years.

If you can't get the true elite players, don't overpay for the borderline superstar ones. If you strike out on Lebron, don't overpay for Joe Johnson or Carlos Boozer or Ben Wallace types. That's a tough sell to the fan base though if you have been preaching financial flexibility for 2-3 years.

 

This is what I was getting at, with the added caveat that the front office should be more willing to move talent for picks. Say what you want about Gar/Pax but they're solid at drafting. I wish they would do more of it. I think you need to couple the realization that you're not going to get a player that will propel you to a championship from free agency with a greater willingness to take chances acquiring them elsewhere, namely the draft.

This franchise has small market limitations in that it is not a destination for talent. But it's not a small market team. The fan base is rabid enough to understand or to not understand and show up/tune in anwyay. You can't run your franchise like that anyways. Otherwise the Bulls are basically Cleveland, tilting at whatever is in style in the desperate hope of being mediocre.

 

I don't look at it as a rebuilding or retooling strategy as much as its a continually rebirth strategy, a strategy aimed not to so much at exploiting championship windows as just continually acquiring good, producing young talent and seeing what sticks.

As to your question about turning away from the draft, maybe they haven't turned away from the draft, but they've never sought to turn to it. The Bulls haven't had a lottery pick since Rose. I guess I'm looking for Gar/Pax to acquire lottery picks on a semiregular basis.

 

Bosh said the same thing after Steven A. Smith leaked that him Lebron and Wade were joining forces in Miami. I think he's the one who worries about tampering.

 

Here's the thing.

I don't see Wade opting out. He's got 2 years at $20M+ at stake.

How does that screw up the plan?

I also don't see Melo taking a 50% pay cut.

 

Sounds like we want to be the old Montreal Expos. Trade good established players for picks. When a pick works out, trade him for more picks. Rinse. Repeat.

Every Bulls fan wants to see the Bulls win a championship. Some even act as if it's their freakin' birthright. Since drafting Rose, the Bulls have had a shot at it. For the past 3 seasons, Rose injuries have derailed their championship pursuit. In the past 2 seasons, the team has earned the 5th and 4th seed in the East without their best player. I see that as an accomplishment.

The key players on the Bulls have been acquired via the draft. When they make good, they're signed to long-term contracts. When they don't, their traded for future picks. The team uses their mid-level and bi-annual cap exceptions to acquire veteran depth and every half decade or so, they get far enough under the cap to add a premier FA (with mixed success at best).

The one thing they haven't done is trade for veteran rotation players. Some criticize them for this, but it's guesswork criticism since we don't know what was possible.

IMO, the Bulls' talent acquisition approach is fine. Until I know Rose can't be Rose, I don't trade established stud supporting players (e.g., Noah) for picks.

 

Sounds like we want to be the old LA Dodgers. Banjo hitters who play good defense.

I'm talking the Wes Parker days.

Historically - since the Dynasty - we've been something of a minor league farm club for the most part. We draft guys, develop them, and trade them for cap space or new minor leaguers. Those cap space guys (Tim Thomas anyone?) are the equivalent of the aged veteran player on his way out, but making a last stand with the minor league club.

Lucking into Rose changed things for a year. Whoopee.

 

Just curious, how would you specifically describe that approach and what are the hallmark examples of it?

 

Pretty standard really and I described some of it above.

Under Paxson, trades have been minor in the overall talent acquisition scheme. Lots of smoke, but no fire. Make of this what you wish. I'm just pointing it out.

The Bulls had a team that led the NBA in regular season wins from 2010-2012. Most of the key players on those teams, with the exception of Boozer, were Bulls' draft picks. Importantly, the Bulls didn't hesitate to re-sign these homegrown players to significant contracts. Boozer and key depth guys like Korver, Brewer, Watson and Bogans were picked up via free agency or minor trades. Since those teams, the Bulls have continued to rely on free agency (use of MLE and BAE exceptions) for depth (Belinelli, Hinrich and Dunleavy). Jimmy Butler, a Bulls draft pick, is still viewed as a starter at one of the wing positions.

Net, the Bulls draft smart, pay up to keep the picks they make when they work out (Asik's a special situation) and fill in around the players they draft with mostly middle-tier FAs, but with the occasional big name on those rare occasions when they're under the cap.

Like I said, pretty standard stuff, but the Bulls have been better at it than most.

 

What do you think the Bulls' batting average is in the draft since the dynasty?

Two home runs: Brand, Rose*.
Role players: Deng, Gordon, Hinrich*, Chandler, Noah*, Thabo.
Jury Out: Snell*, Butler*.

Traded/didn't make the team: Norris Cole.
A bunch of busts: JWill, Teague, Saraphin, Tyrus, Fizer, Curry, James Johnson, Benjamin, Bagaric. (These are 1st round picks)

* - still with team

That's out of 21 picks total in the 1st round by the Bulls.

 

I feel like trades have been minor to nonexistent in terms of importance to almost every team, with the exception of sign and trades, which are really more like free agent signings.

The Bulls shipped Deng too. You can't ignore that, and this was after he had lost all trade value because he had an expiring contract. I don't think there's any reason to delve into the financial merits of the transaction -- I'm only pointing out that the CBA didn't seem to allow the easy retention of our all star and the Bulls very likely held on to him for too long (or too short).

 

Yeah, I think that's right. Rinse, repeat until you find a diamond -- a hall of fame caliber player -- then hang on to them forever. This is pretty much what the Spurs have done, right?

 

Personally, I think you need to consider where you're picking. Yeah, Rose and Brand were great picks, but they were #1 overall. Deng, Noah and Gibson were great picks. Also, when Noah hangs them up, I suspect you'll be able to make a good case that he was as good a player as Brand.

If JWill is a clear bust, then Rose may not deserve home run status.

In fairness, since Seraphin was traded to Washington immediately after being drafted, it's likely the Wiz had some say over his selection.

 

http://articles.chicagotribune.com/2003-06-26/news/0306270371_1_bulls-kansas-kirk-hinrich-draft
http://www.csnchicago.com/bulls/what-if-aldridge-had-stayed-bulls

 

JWill was pretty awful as a player for us. He did make 2nd team NBA all-rookie team. Not bad for a #2 overall pick.

 

Also, that Seraphin trade was one of the best deals we ever made. Seriously.

Talk about getting rid of a bad contract.

 

Drafting (since Forman took over as general manager): Pretty good! Before that, average at best.
Trades: No noteable ones to think of.
Free agents: Building Cap Space for big time free agent has been a failure for the most part 3 times. Ron Mercer, EROB, Ben Wallace on a very overpaid deal that lead to the loss of Tyson Chandler, Carlos Boozer on an overpaid deal that lead to the loss of Luol Deng and Omer Asik.

The Bulls have been better than most in the regular season since they hired Thibs, but this does not really count for much in the long run. The Bulls have not accomplished anything really of note in the playoffs since the days of MJ.

Overall, the Bulls have been very conservative. They basically just collect draft picks and sometimes they hit on them. They tend to strike out on free agents and when they do spend the big $, they make mistakes. They basically don't make trades, not any of note at least.

And we're at where we're at. The only glimmer of contention hope is that Rose fell into the Bulls laps, and he may be damaged goods.

One thing I'm pretty sure I'd like to see going forward is to stop severely overpaying for average free agents. The problem is that sometimes that guy might seem like the "last piece" but it usually doesn't seem to turn out that way. I'm also very sick and tired of hearing about vague "plans" of building "flexibility" for a future 2-3 years out that never comes to fruition.