Pretty much agree with this. Just think how things would be different if some lucky breaks went our way for instance. We win the coinflip to get Hakeem, suddenly that changes two franchises history. If we take Durant over Oden that changes two franchises histories as well. We don't trade Thomas for LMA and we and the Bulls look vastly different as well.
Armchair GM's always have an I told you so mentality. There is never a right answer before picking these guys really. San Antonio has gotten really good at taking productive players though, It would be interesting to see if they were all luck, and if not, what they do to pick the right guy.
I wonder how much the health report became a factor when drafting Roy and Oden. And how much of that was KP's doing. Did he just roll the dice and hope for the best?
Lets not give the fans a free pass on the CP3 fuck up either. There were a select few on most Blazer message boards who were in favor of Paul. As I recall the phrase "another midget PG" (referring to Damon) was the brilliant reasoning for not wanting him.
People keep questioning this and yes they both had red flags but we will never know how badly those red flags were viewed as. I can't even come up with comparisons to players who deteriorated as fast as both of them.
There is no data I have that backs this up but It seems like good teams picking at the end of the draft have a better time at finding rotational talent because they aren't drafting on potential but rather fit.
Also Telfair showed some great promise his rookie year and people thought he could take the jump into quality starter.
Both point guards were highly touted at the time while John Nash was hyping up Martell Webster. Where is John Nash these days?
And Raymond Felton. Lot of Blazer fans wanted us to trade down and draft Gerald Green. Of course Marvin Williams who went 2nd was preferred by most. We can still get him.....
Exactly, great post! Teams spend millions of dollars on scouting and medical staff and still consistently make tons of wrong choices in the draft. Its very difficult to predict. You could almost think of it as picking stocks; sure its easy to identify the factors in hindsight that lead to good buys or good sells but in the moments its extremely difficult to know what direction these things will go.
Don't forget the Canzano piece where he warned against drafting CP after he punched Julius Hodge in the crotch and got suspended for the tournament, saying he had character issues. I was naiive back then, and read about how Gerald Green was the next TMac and wanted him over anybody else. oops
I didn't want Paul because he has a first name for a last name, and CP3 is, when spoken, one of the top five most annoyingly stupid nicknames in sports history.
