I'm curious about cap holds for Matthews, Aldridge and Lopez for next summer. Looking at the parson and bosh situation in Houston, I'm curious if we have any cap space before we sign our existing players.
Houston had that situation because Parsons was still on a cheap, rookie-level deal, so his cap hold was minor. That won't be the case for Aldridge, Matthews and Lopez. Their cap holds will be close to the same as their salaries this year (I think slightly more).
If we terminated options I'm coming up with around mle type space anyways. So it doesn't make sense unless we let Wes and rolo go and try to grab a guy like gasol. Of course the numbers are based off a quick run in.my head with estimated numbers
If Olshay is going to make a run a big time free agent, he'll likely renounce Matthews and decline the team options on Meyers, Claver, Freeland and TRob. That along with Wright coming off the books is potentially a nice chunk of cap room.
I don't see that we have any potential CAP space next summer - Name.............................2014-15...........2015-16.........Notes LaMarcus Aldridge.......$16,006,000.....$19,860,000.......3,4 Nicolas Batum..............$11,765,500.....$12,235,750....... Wesley Matthews........$7,245,640.......$10,868,460.......1 Robin Lopez................$6,124,728.......$9,187,092.........1 Damian Lillard.............$3,340,920.......$4,236,287......... Steve Blake.................$2,077,000........$2,170,465.......12 Chris Kaman...............$4,820,000........$5,000,000.......13 Dorell Wright..............$3,135,000.......$4,075,500.........8 Joel Freeland...............$3,013,512.......$3,766,890......... Thomas Robinson........$3,678,360.......$4,660,482......... C.J. McCollum..............$2,421,000.......$2,525,160......... Will Barton..................$915,243..........$1,181,348......... Meyers Leonard...........$2,317,920.......$3,075,880......... Victor Claver...............$1,370,000........$1,712,500......... Allen Crabbe...............$862,000...........$947,276............ Mid Level Exception..............................$5,464,000.........9 Bi Annual Exception......................................................10 Draft Choice........................................$1,025,700..........11 2016 Total CAP Holds: $91,992,790 Qualifying Offer Team Option Non-Guaranteed CAP Hold Notes: 1. CAP hold is 150% of previous salary for non rookie, above league average previous contracts. 2. Assumed league average salary = 2014 average salary x 1.045 = $5.632M x 1.045 = $5.885M 3. Max contract for 7-9 yr vet is 30% of CAP. Assume 2016 CAP = 2015 CAP + 5% = 63.065M + 3.15M = $66.2M. Max = $19.86M 4. CAP hold is never greater than the Max salary. 5. CAP hold is at least the estimated ave salary 6. Max contract for 0-6 yr vet is 25% of CAP. Assume 2016 CAP = 2015 CAP + 5% = 63.065M + 3.15M = $66.2M. Max = $16.55M 7. CAP hold is 120% of previous salary for non-bird free agents. 8. CAP hold is 130% of previous salary for early-bird free agents. 9. 2015-16 Mid Level Exception = $5.464M 10. 2015-16 Bi Annual Exception = $2.139M (Blazers do not have due to using it on Blake in 2014-15) 11. Assume draft possion similar to 2014 finish (tied for 5th best record) - draft position 25. 12. Signed for BAE. 13. Signed using MLE - only $1M guaranteed 2nd year. These cap holds are in place before we have the option to sign any free agents. The only way to eliminate them is to renounce the rights to our free agents. By doing that, we lose the ability to use any bird exceptions to re-sign them. If we renounce the rights to: Wright, Freeland, Leonard, Claver, ,Crabbe, and Kaman ($1M Guaranteed), then I calculate we will have a CAP hold of $73,414,744. Still well over the estimated cap of approximately $66M. Unless we're looking at renouncing the rights to one or more of our starters, I don't see that we have any CAP room to go after a key free agent (such as Gasol). And as we've seen this summer, if we're going to renounce the rights to one of our starters in the hope of getting a big time free agent, that approach comes with a lot of risks. I'm no cap guru. I'm sure I made some mistakes with these calculations. But from what I'm looking at, our CAP options are pretty limited next summer. What's Olshey's plan?
The team options for Meyers, Trob, CJ, have to be picked up by Oct31 so they will be on our cap. I think we just keep our own free agents and stay above the cap unless LMA or Damian convince another all-star to come here by jul 1. Other way is if there is a major injury to one of our starters, then we could go in a different direction. We'll have to sign lillard to am extension next summer too and while it won't hit our cap it likely becomes a super max deal as Rose and Durant got.
If we renounce their rights, essentially taking away the cap holds, would we still be able to go over the cap to sign them?
Obviously not. What would be the point of having a cap hold if you could do this? Anyways, the only free agent worth half a damn next year is Marc Gasol. As long as the team doesn't suck next year I'm guessing we just resign our own free agents. Maybe if we get creative we can dump TRob/CJ if we really feel like we have a shot at Gasol.
Great thread! I think we will not know the answers until we see the young guys make a step forward. I doubt Kaman will get a second year or Wright or Claver. If we get to the Western conf finals this season, I'm confident Paul Allen will pay the luxury tax. If not I expect to see some moves. We'll definitely know more at the trade deadline. Wes I think would take a pay cut to stay if we're successful
Doesn't it seem like attempting to make a trade is more likely than renouncing everyone? This season we need to get our young guys on the court, to hopefully increase their trade value.
I think so. We've got a nice starting 5 with some very reasonable contracts. With those cap holds in place, we're not going to be a player in the FA market. No way we renounce any of our starters for the hope of a big FA signing. Our improvement over the next few years is going to come from development from within. If that development from within nets us a nice trade to balance the roster, great. But I'd be surprised if our starting 5 changes. I always hear fans saying that they like the San Antonio model - Hold onto the core, development from within, incremental improvement thru smart fill the gap trades. It feels like the Blazers may be moving in that building direction, if they can maintain the patience.
