It's a definite possibility, but will depend on several factors. First, we need to win those games. Second, will be our MOV. Third, will be how GSW does in their next two, and finally their MOV. All that said, we have been gaining on GSW at a very rapid rate. A week and a half ago, before our 3OT win over SAS, we trailed the Warriors by 6.401 (110.772 to 104.371). Now, we only trail them by 0.553. We made up a ton of ground in the last 10 days. So, that final .553 won't be a problem - if we take care of business and win those two games. BNM
Repped! Actually, I'm here for the holidays and beyond. It's been awesome going to the games, listening to post game on the way home and then watching the rebroadcasts so I can see what I missed. So much better than NBA league pass!
Stein has us staying at 3rd, GS drops to #2 and Chicago #1 http://m.espn.go.com/nba/rankings?year=2015&week=9&src=desktop&ex_cid=sportscenterTW
That "road wins minus home losses" metric is interesting. Orlando, for instance, is 9 games below .500, yet their RW-HL is only -1, because they've played 20 road games to only 13 at home, and they actually have a better road record (8-12) than home record (4-9). This metric suggests that as their schedule evens out, their record might start to creep up. I'm calling it now--the Magic are my dark-horse playoff team in the East!!
Nice. That is an interesting stat. Related: Looking at the playoff matchups if the playoff were to start today, and I see that only one Eastern matchup has both teams above .500 in it (the 4/5 matchup). That's so pathetic.
Just saw that the (then 12-21) Magic beat the (then 14-17) Heat, in Miami. Orlando's RW-HL is now 0, while the Heat are now -4. This metric is going to be my new obsession for the next little while...
Well, apparently GSW's 40-point win over PHI was more impressive than our 5-point OT win over TOR - at least according to the Hollinger bot. GSW RAT = 108.956, previous = 107.966, +.990 POR RAT = 107.734, previous = 107.448, +.286 Ironically, TOR losing to us was almost as impressive as us beating them: TOR RAT = 107.327, previous = 107.215, +.112 BNM
In the last 10 games, the Blazers are winning by an average of 10.3 ppg. The Rockets are winning by an average of 0.8 ppg. I love it. Talk about two teams going in opposite directions.
Yeah--didn't quite see that coming. The 40-point win increased their L10 MOV from 4.8 to 7.2, and didn't materially impact their L10 SOS because it pushed out their 12/8 win over Minnesota.
the piece I always quibbled with Hollinger about was that it places a pretty big emphasis on MOV (and especially late MOV). When our benches (and especially deep benches) have been garbage, we've routinely given up 4-6 points in garbage time, which affects his power rankings hard.
The deep end of a bench can matter as some of those guys will need to be briefly in the rotation when an injury hits. Having legit options at those spots gives the coach players he can use for brief specific matchups in the playoffs.
One reason is Houston had such an easy schedule at the beginning of the season. But the main reason is Howard came back and his buddy smith sucks balls
Someone needs to make sure the guys see this before Wednesday's game against the Clippers: Hollinger Power Rankings RAT REC MAR SOS REC (L10) MAR (L10) SOS (L10) STRK H/A DIV CONF PREV RK PREV RAT 1 110.443 29-5 +11.03 .489 8-2 +13.40 .448 Won 6 17/17 1st 1st 1 110.476 Last Game: CLE, W 112-94 | Next 2: @UTAH (Tues), MIA (Wed) Schedule | Injuries | Transactions | Hollinger Stats RAT REC MAR SOS REC (L10) MAR (L10) SOS (L10) STRK H/A DIV CONF PREV RK PREV RAT 2 106.161 29-8 +5.78 .488 9-1 +5.30 .592 Won 8 19/18 1st 1st 6 104.983 Last Game: WSH, W 120-89 | Next 2: @PHI (Tues), @BOS (Wed) Schedule | Injuries | Transactions | Hollinger Stats RAT REC MAR SOS REC (L10) MAR (L10) SOS (L10) STRK H/A DIV CONF PREV RK PREV RAT 3 105.826 25-13 +6.42 .503 6-4 +8.20 .520 Lost 1 23/15 2nd 6th 2 106.872 Last Game: MIA, L 104-90 | Next 2: @POR (Wed), CLE (Fri) Schedule | Injuries | Transactions | Hollinger Stats RAT REC MAR SOS REC (L10) MAR (L10) SOS (L10) STRK H/A DIV CONF PREV RK PREV RAT 4 105.620 30-8 +7.39 .471 8-2 +7.20 .446 Won 4 21/17 1st 2nd 3 106.125 Last Game: @LAL, W 106-94 | Next 2: LAC (Wed), @SA (Fri) Schedule | Injuries | Transactions | Hollinger Stats We're 5 games ahead of the Clippers in the standings, have won 8 of 10, compared to 6 of 10, just beat the Lakers and Heat by double digits and fell from 2nd to 4th. The Clippers just lost to the Heat by double digits, at home, yet they are ranked above us. Talk about no respect, not even the computers give this team the respect it deserves! We need to beat the Clippers and we need to beat them handily! BNM
I think it's the recent SOS and margins of victory. 2 games vs LAL and MIA/ORL for us, while LAC smacked around both DAL and LAL in massive blowouts. Winning our next three against LAC/SAS/MEM would put us on top.
It definitely is, but come on, we're 5 full games ahead of them in the standings and have won 8 of 10. We're winning the games we're supposed to win, but I guess double digit victories over teams like the Heat and Lakers don't impress Hollinger's algorithm. Its not like LAC's MAR over the last 10 is that much better than ours (8.20 vs. 7.20) and they've lost 4 of those games. At some point, wins and losses need to count more than MAR. LAC have also played more home games (23) than any other team in the league, and that doesn't count their win @LAL - which is basically another home game for them. The Clippers are currently in 5th lace in the West, the Blazers are in 2nd. Of course, that's the only ranking that really matters, but I think being ranked below the Clippers would be good bulletin board material to provide a little extra motivation to come out and really lay a beat down on the Clippers on Wednesday night - which would be a great way to start this next 5-game stretch against LAC, @SAS, @MEM (B-to-B), SAC and @PHO. That's 5 games in 8 days, with a lot of back and forth travel against some pretty tough competition. SAC may have a losing record, but they are wildly unpredictable and seem to always give us fits. BNM
How do you think the Spurs feel (below Milwaukee) or Grizzlies (below the Pelicans)? or hell, Chicago? They're not only below Milwaukee, New Orleans, but also Detroit. If there's any proof needed that Hollinger's rankings are shit, Detroit being ahead of Chicago is it.
