Right. And I'm not starting a chant for Bairstow either. I'm just making the argument that you made in the preseason when we were projecting Mirotic's numbers. I think we've seen enough players on the roster in the past few years to say that bigs in Thibodeau's schemes usually don't last a full season. I suspect that's true with most coaches in the NBA too. I'd love to see Thibodeau try to limit the in-season drain on the Bulls bigs.
You never know, but I don't think the answer to winning NBA basketball games is to play bad players, which I think Baristow is at this point. He's shooting like 30% this year with a PER of 2.3. For a game that was tied at the end of regulation, I think giving minutes to a guy like that isn't a good idea, if the goal is to win the game. If the goal is development minutes, then have at it, but that's a different thing, IMO, and the goal this season should be to maximize changes to win a NBA title this season. Young stud players tend to play heavy minutes. I see the way Popovic is handling his roster as more to do with the age of the roster and trying to extend it as long as possible. Popovic played Duncan around 39-40 minutes a game the first 6 seasons of his career. There are some changing school of thought on this perhaps as the way the Warriors and Hawks allocate minutes to their starters is interesting. Curry is in the MVP talks not being in the top 50 MPG. But Harden is a top 10 MPG guys. Anthony Davis is. Lebron and Kyrie are. And perhaps Pop is changing his heavy minutes ways over the years, as Leonard is around 32MPG. But, he isn't giving minutes to guys with PERs in the neighborhood of 2.
The Hawks are 50-14, they have a 9 1/2 game lead over the #2 team in the East (Cleveland, 42-25). The Warriors are 51-12, they have a 7 game lead over the #2 team in the West (Memphis, 45-20). These are by far the two dominant teams in the NBA, and they don't have a single player in the top-30 in minutes per game. Curry at 37th is the highest. They have six All-Stars between them, only Korver (33) is older than 30. Curry is 26 and he plays 33.1 minutes. Thompson is 24 and he plays 32.6 minutes. Milsap is 29 and he plays 33.0 minutes. Korver is 33 and he plays 33.0 minutes. Teague is 26 and he plays 31.1 minutes. Horford is 28 and he plays 30.7 minutes. The Hawks have 10 players who have played at least 45 games that are getting 16+ minutes per game. The Warriors have 8 players who have played at least 45 games that are getting 16+ minutes per game (Lee plays 18.4 minutes but only in 36 games, and Barbosa is 10th at 13.5 minutes). Maybe these guys are on to something? The vast majority of NBA games are decided in the final 5-6 minutes, and basic common sense says that a player who has played 5-6 fewer minutes is going to have more left in the tank down the stretch of games. There are only 28 players in the entire league who play 34+ minutes per game, and less than half of them are All-Stars. Of the 28 All-Stars this year, 15 of them play less than 34 minutes a night. Maybe the Hawks and Warriors are just one-year wonders, it's just a coincidence, and this year is an outlier. I would point out that last year's champs didn't have a single player average 30 minutes during the season, and only Duncan (32.7), Leonard (32.0) and Parker (31.3) played more than 27 minutes in the playoffs. Maybe players can go harder and play more aggressively on defense if they know they'll get enough rest during a game so that they won't be worn out in the final 5 minutes?
Or maybe the very best teams run out to big leads and have the luxury of more garbage time to play their bench players. GSW scores a league leading 109.6 points per game, and allows just 99.3. A difference of 10.3. That's a lot of blowout victories. ATL scores 102.8 points per game and allows 96.7. A difference of 6.1. CHI scores 101 and gives up 98.8, a difference of 2.2.
And Miami has won 2 out of the last 3 titles playing Lebron 38 minutes a game and Wade / Bosh around 34. The Mavs won their title playing Dirk 34.5. Thibs has his ring from a team that played Allen and Pierce 36 a game. The Cavs, who play their studs heavy minutes, are the current Vegas favorites to win the NBA title. And Denny's point is also well taken. More garbage time for the better teams. Tight games - play the good players. Roster depth may also come into play. The Warriors seems to have several productive players to choose from on the bench. The Hawks also have several non-stiffs to choose from and no MVP level talent in the starting lineup. ---- I'm sure the Bulls will be able to find a coach that will stick to front office imposed minutes caps. He may suck at dealing with the players, be an average Xs and Os guy and doesn't get the most out of the talent he's given to work with, but he'll stick to the minutes caps. I imagine the complaints about the coach will quickly shift to other things. There isn't a perfect coach out there. I think Bulls fans have been spoiled by several years of being one of the better teams in the league, despite having to deal with Rose's knee and horrible contract. A McDermott / Coach Mayor future is on the horizon. Minutes may quickly be the least of our worries. ---- Its also important to remember that the Bulls only have 2 guys in the top 40 for MPG. The two guys that were all-stars this year play a lot.
I've seen a number of posts around here needling the prospect of Fred Hoiberg as coach. I'm curious why you guys feel that way? To me, he seems to be about as bright and shiny a coaching prospect as they come.
I'm by default skeptical of college coaches coming to the NBA as coaches for the first time. I basically think its a total crap-shoot. I do know that he'll likely bend over to management since he's a rookie NBA coach. And after a year or two if he gets the stones to push back, that's when Paxson attacks. Thibs knows he will have offers to choose from when he parts ways with the Bulls, and has a track record of success and a strong NBA reputation. New Orleans Pelicans would be a good landing spot for Thibs. Davis already is top 10 in MPG BTW.
Iowa coach comes in to replace the championship caliber one. Whispers about him drive a wedge between the great coach and management. Deliberate leakage by management for that purpose. Moderate success at the college level. Signals a radical change in direction. Last time we put together this team and season: http://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/CHI/1999.html No thanks to Tim Floyd 2.0.
Hoiberg has NBA Front Office experience, right after he retired from playing he moved into the Timberwolves' Front Office, where he spent three years as Assistant General Manager before being promoted to Vice President of Basketball Operations. Very similar to the path Steve Kerr took on his way to coaching the Warriors, where he has the team sitting with the best record in the NBA in his first year of coaching. Kerr was a TV analyst before and after his stint in the Suns' front office, he seems to be doing OK even though he stared the year with zero coaching experience, at either the college or NBA level. Of course, I don't know why Hoiberg would take the Bulls' job anyway, unless he's a masochist like Thibs. Hoiberg had other NBA job offers last summer, and this summer he would have offers from other teams where the front office staff aren't monsters like the Bulls FO. Then again, we all know Thibs coached here for almost three years and then signed an extension to work for the assholes another four years, and he took the job in the summer of 2010 knowing what kind of pricks the Bulls employ in the front office, even though he could have had the New Orleans job instead.
Well, at some point, you need the talent, and the Bulls had MVP level Derrick Rose and other strong pieces. If you want the chip, you need the MVP level talent for the most part. Yup, there are success stories and also failures. That's why its a crap-shoot. Tim Floyd. Would you mind typing up what Vinny Del Negro's path to coaching was?
Why? Because it's GarPax doing the hiring. They could hire Popovich, and he would be ripped as an "old, retread, same-old same-old NBA coach". "Why don't GarPax hire someone who actually played the game, who has NBA front-office experience so they'd understand the business end of things, someone like Steve Kerr who has done an amazing job of taking the Warriors to the top of the league. Fred Hoiberg would be perfect, but he'll get hired by some other progressive, forward-thinking front office".
First, I think it's very fitting that a Hinrich thread has become the "General Bulls Discussion" thread for this forum...The Chicago Hinrichs. Moving on, I haven't harped on Thibodeau overworking his players, but once Gibson's back and if Noah's OK, I'd like to see Thibodeau pull Gasol to the side on a back-to-back game and tell him that his foot hurts and he can't play that game. I'd like him to repeat this performance for the April 11 home game vs the Sixers. IMO, the 4th seed would be just fine for the Bulls. This likely would be a path that pits them against the Wizards then the Hawks before meeting the Cavs in the EC finals. No Bulls' player should need to die for a single victory. The Hoiberg stuff is getting ahead of ourselves...WAY ahead of ourselves. This said, Hoiberg's combination of (relative) youth, NBA experience as a player and front office executive and successful Division 1 head coach is very damned impressive.
K4E doesn't need my defense, Bullsville, but I think "he's a crap shoot" is a perfectly good reason to fear a Hoiberg hire. It also has nothing to do with sentiments toward management. I'm ready for a coaching change. Others prefer the devil they know.
Since it wasn't typed out for me as requested, here is Vinny Del Negro's experience. Del Negro worked as a radio commentator for the Phoenix Suns before being promoted to director of player personnel for the Suns in 2006.[2] In 2007, the Suns promoted him to the position of assistant general manager.[3] On June 9, 2008, multiple media reports indicated Del Negro had agreed to become the new head coach of the Chicago Bulls.[4] He became the favorite for the job after former Bulls' coach Doug Collins withdrew his name from consideration. Also remember that GarPax felt Del Negro was superior to Thibs. So, Del Negro had the valuable NBA front office experience. Tim Floyd had the valuable experience of coaching at Iowa State. So maybe the Mayor will be the coach you get when you merge Vinny Del Negro and Tim Floyd. Woot. As long as he plays McDermott a lot (but not too much!) I'm sure he'll get a long leash. Noone can say reasonably with any confidence if the mayor will be a good NBA head coach. Its a crap shoot. Thibs is a coach of the year, Team USA coach and is considered around the league to be one of the top coaches around.
But pretty much any coach you hire is going to be a crap shoot, nobody is psychic and knows exactly how a team is going to react to a coach. Just look at the Clippers - they got rid of the man who is currently being ridiculed in this thread (Del Negro) and brought in a "championship coach" in Doc... and they haven't done any more under Doc than they did under Vinny. Vinny's 2nd year (the year they got CP3), they had a .606 winning percentage and lost in the 2nd round. (Prorated 49 years with the lockout, a 17-win improvement over his first year) Vinny's 3rd year, they had 56 wins and lost in the 1st round, and Vinny got canned. The next year, Doc's 1st, they won 57 games and lost in the 2nd round. This year, Doc's 2nd, they are on pace to win 53 games, 5th place in the West and on pace to play HOU in the 1st round without home court advantage. Thibs was a crap shoot, right? He had no head coaching experience, and when "GarPax felt Del Negro was superior to Thibs", for two years not one other NBA team hired Thibs as their head coach. Apparently, any team that hired a new coach between June 10, 2008 (the day Vinny was hired) and June 5, 2010 (the day the Bulls hired Thibs) preferred that coach to Thibs. Thibs is a very good coach, but Doug Collins was a very good coach as well. It was a "crap shoot" to fire him after he had taken the team to the Conference Finals to bring in PJax, who had no NBA head coaching experience (and only two years of experience as an NBA assistant). Hell, Phil couldn't even get an assistant's job in the NBA until Krause hired him, he could only get CBA and Puerto Rican league jobs. That worked out OK, if I recall the 90's correctly. The thing that proves to me that it's all about GarPax hate is that I've only seen ridicule for Hoiberg, I have yet to see even one suggestion as to who would be an upgrade over Thibs. So unless folks believe that Thibs is the greatest coach on the planet, it seems like you might read at least one suggestion as an alternative to Hoiberg?? Would it be OK to replace Thibs with Popovich? Or Doc, or Spoelstra, or Carlisle, all of whom have won NBA Championships? Or how about D'Antoni, he's a Coach of the Year and a Team USA coach?
