Update after last night's games: Hollinger's Playoff Odds (now 100.0% that we will make the playoffs) currently has us projected to win 55 games, tied with MEM and 2 games ahead of HOU and LAC at 53 wins apiece. That would make us the 3rd seed in the West as MEM would also be a division winner and won the season series against us. Unfortunately, Hollinger's bot has SAS projected as the 6th seed. Getting the defending champs in the first round, even with HCA would be a tough draw. Basketball-reference Playoff Probabilities also has us finishing with the 3rd seed with 54.4 wins (round down to 54), behind MEM with 55.0 and, for all practical purposes, tied with HOU at 53.5 wins (round up to 54) and two games ahead of LAC at 52.4 wins (round down to 52). They are also currently projecting SAS as the 6th seed at 51.0 win, just ahead (tied with) DAL at 50.9 wins. Man, this race is tight. Seeds 2 - 5 are all still up for grabs, and are the 6th and 7th seeds. We need to keep winning to try to catch and pass MEM for the second seed, or hope DAL takes the 6th seed from SAS. As always, I believe you ALWAYS play to win. Regardless of the first round match up, we should try for the highest possible seed to also secure HCA in the second round. BTW, most articles I've read claim the home team, on average, has a 4 - 4.5 point per game advantage in the post season, compared to about 3 - 3.25 points per game in the regular season. Note, that's regardless of seeding (it's whatever team is playing at home in any particular game). So, that's an 8 - 9 point swing between being the home team versus playing on the road. I suspect it will be smaller this year, as the teams from 2-7 are so evenly matched. Still even if the advantage is small, better to have it than not in both the first and second rounds. BNM
Site to bookmark: http://www.playoffstatus.com/nba/westernwinmagicnumbers.html Combo of 8 (our wins + OKC losses) will seal the division. 32 total games left between us.
I think in the West, homecourt advantage is what's left to play for. It won't make a huge difference who you play. I think we can beat the Spurs in a 7 game series. Of all the first round matchups, Memphis is the team I'd most like to dodge. At some point though you have to play the winners and it's almost better to meet the Spurs in the first round than the west conf finals.
The Playoff Spurs are much different than the Regular Season Spurs. The playoffs are much more favorable to an aging roster. The games are intense, but there are no back-to-backs and no 5 game in 7 night road trips, etc. There is always at least 1 day off between games, many times 2 or 3 days, and occasionally even 4 days. That gives old bodies much more time to recuperate between games. Still, this may be the year the Spurs finally become vulnerable. It's not 38-year old Tim "Death and Taxes" Duncan that's tapering off. He's flat out amazing and his stats this year are virtually identical to last year. The Spurs players who have fallen off the most from last year to this are a pair of 32-year old Frenchmen and a 37-year old Argentinean. Given the way Batum's play also suffered this season (until recently), maybe that world championship went to the Frenchies heads, or maybe they were all worn out after playing competitively last summer. Parker is still a good, but no longer elite, PG (at least, not based on his current regular season stats) and Diaw's production has fallen off a cliff. Likewise, age seems to be catching up with Manu. Many thought he'd retire after a sub-par finals against the Heat the year before last, but he came back really strong last year and surprised a lot of people. This year is his worst regular season, by a wide margin, since his rookie year circa 62 BC. I also sorta of like the idea of meeting them in the first round - IF WE HAVE TO MEET THEM AT ALL. Last year, they totally struggled in the first 6 games of their first round series against Dallas. Then came Game 7 of that series and the flipped a switch and became totally dominant. They didn't just dominate our young Blazers in the second round. They were every bit as dominant against OKC in the third round and MIA in the finals. So, if we have to meet them in the post season, it's probably better to meet them early, before they get their act together and go into playoff juggernaut mode. BNM
Bot update... Basketball-Reference Playoff Probability Report currently has us finishing in a 3-way tie at 54 wins with MEM and HOU, and have us winning the 3-way tie breaker to grab the 2nd seed (which means they are projecting us to beat MEM on Saturday). They have SAS projected as the 7th seed with 50 wins, one game behind 51-win DAL. Hollinger's Playoff Odds has us grabbing the second seed outright with 55 wins, one game ahead of 54-win MEM and HOU. They also have SAS projected as the 7th seed and our first round opponent. But, these are just projections based on computer simulations. There's still a lot of basketball to be played and these races are still way to close to call. Who could have predicted that MEM would lose to lowly DET and SAS would also lose to even lowlier (lowliest) NYK last night? That's why they play the games. I still say, play your best, go all out to win each and every game, get the best record you can to secure HCA for the first two rounds if possible. BNM
