I'm assuming that's rhetorical? You already know the answer is "it depends on whether or not it fits the current argument"... As for how much the Vegas odds actually mean when it comes to which team is best, I guess it's appropriate this just came out today: _______________________________________________ Heading into the opening week of baseball season, more money has been bet on the Cubs to win the World Series than any other team at two of Nevada's largest sportsbooks. The Cubs are 6-1 to win the World Series at the MGM. Only theWashington Nationals, at 5-1, have better odds. The number of bets on the Cubs more than doubles any other team in the MGM's World Series futures pool. http://espn.go.com/chalk/story/_/id/12596815/bettors-putting-heavy-cash-chicago-cubs-las-vegas _______________________________________________ Now I don't follow baseball nearly as much as I did in my youth, but I do follow the Cubs and know that literally every baseball pundit I have seen/read/heard says the Cubs probably aren't even a playoff team this year. And certainly nowhere near the 2nd best team in baseball. Granted, I don't know if that's "smart money" or "dumb money", I just assume it's all the money mixed together. And I'm quite sure it's possible that people bet on the Cubs just because they're the Cubs, just like people bet on LeBron just because he's LeBron.
http://www.vegasinsider.com/mlb/odds/futures/ http://sports.bovada.lv/sports-betting/baseball-futures.jsp https://www.covers.com/odds/baseball/mlb-futures.aspx Most places I look at have the Cubs at about 7th or 8th. You have to be really digging and spinning to find a place that has the Cubs at 2nd. ---- That being said, the Bulls are certainly not the favorites to come out of the East this postseason. If they got to the finals, it would be an upset and an over achievement.
It's awesome that he starts out the post with "I don't follow baseball ... much" but he's an expert anyway. He is as much a baseball expert as basketball apparently. Not much of one, that is. From what I do know about betting, having lived in Vegas for years and knowing some of the sportsbook guys like Kenny White, and following the gambling business, having friend who worked at the sportsbooks, etc.... The Cubs don't have any kind of homer following to drive the odds down to 6-1. The bets on the world series championship have typically been just that - a homer bet. You bet $20 to win $800 at 40-1 and expect to lose. There's obviously a reason people are betting on the Cubs. It could be they fired the Fred Hoiberg of baseball managers and hired the Thibodeau. You know, the best manager in baseball they say, and one whose teams have won 90+ games 4 of the past 5 years. Or signed the top free agent, a left handed pitcher with a 2.46 ERA and 220 strikeouts in 219 innings. Pencil them in for a great chance to win 1 out of 4 or 5 games. The odds don't move based upon the number of people betting. One guy betting $20M would move the lines a LOT. The sportsbooks want equal money on both sides of the bet so they'll move the lines to attract bettors to the other side. A real reporter would do a little research beyond one google link. At Vegas.com, the Cubs are 16-1 to win the World Series and 10-1 to win the pennant. At VegasInsider.com, they are at 16-1 and 10-1 also. The odds on the Cubs have actually fallen from 12-1 to 16-1. The team is a tad over .500 in spring training games. http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/eye-on...ster-signing-cubs-world-series-odds-improving After Jon Lester signing, Cubs World Series odds make leap The Cubs! As urgent dispatches informed us, on Tuesday they swung an upgrade at catcher by trading for Miguel Montero, and then they went out and inked coveted lefty Jon Lester to a massive free agent contract. Add these two to the already impressive core of young talent, and you've got a potential contender in 2015. And that brings us toBovada.lv's updated World Series odds for 2015. As this CBS Chicago piece explains, the Cubs' odds jumped from 50-to-1 to 20-to-1 after they brought Joe Maddon on board. To be sure, this is a reflection of bettor behavior more than anything else, so keep that in mind.
@SST - Do you really have a problem with Dunleavy as the 5th starter? low usage, high TS% vets who play solid defense seem like fine choices as the 5th starter. If the Bulls do or don't make it in the playoffs, I doubt it's because of him. I'm hoping Thibs gives him and Snell the Taj/Boozer treatment of a year ago. As for Thibs: - It's easy to make an argument that he's been one of the best coaches in the league since he's been here. I think that's irrefutable. However, it's also easy to make the case that he's been in the bottom half of coaches this season, so it's an issue of whether or not this indicates that he's lost the team.
Cubbies are 15-9 their last 24 games of spring training. That's a pace that would win 101 regular season games. But wait till next year!
There was no limited rotation. It was a misquote in a blurb at the end of a game recap that someone ran with. I think Thibs would use anyone at any time when the match up is favorable or if one of the other guys isn't bringing it.
So it is really a 10 man rotation. Aside from Kirk and Snell, the other 8 are pretty easy: 1. Rose 2. Jimmy 3. Pau 4. DunVP 5. Jo 6. Taj 7. Brooks 8. Niko And likely something like that order.
Odd men out, duh: Moore, Nazr, and Bairstow. But Nazr gives good pep talks, so he has a role even if not playing.
If we play Washington, I could see Snell getting big minutes. Bulls might guard Wall with Jimmy, Beale with Tony, and Rose on Pierce. Pierce is still a really good player, but I think Rose will out score him 2-1.
Ok, rather than spar, I'll just cut to the chase. Thibodeau wouldn't put his most important player in an obvious mismatch that runs the risk of getting Rose in quick foul trouble. He's lots smarter than that.
