What to expect from Meyers Leonard this season

I had a bad experience with saber- metrics as a young adult and am still recovering.

 

I ran some more stats after reading your post, all from 2014-15, to get a feel for him in different situations:

93 FGM when he gets 5 or more FGA per game (25 games)
182 FGA when he gets 5 or more FGA per game (25 games)

FG% - 51.1% / 9.28PPG / 22.2MPG (12.5PPG @ 30MPG; 15PPG @ 36MPG)

65 FGM when he gets 20+ minutes per game (15 games)
126 FGA when he gets 20+ minutes per game (15 games)

FG% - 51.6% / 11.2PPG / 26.0MPG (12.9PPG @ 30MPG; 15.5PPG @ 36MPG)

32 3PM when he has 3 or more 3PA per game (20 games)
79 3PA when he has 3 or more 3PA per game (20 games)

3P% - 40.5% / 9.95PPG / 21.5MPG (13.9PPG @ 30MPG; 16.7PPG @ 36MPG)

Despite the ~10PPG averages, what I like about these stats is that they are consistent with his overall averages percentage-wise. He does a bit better when he plays more minutes, instead of wilting under extended minutes. Leonard isn't a burst player, which is good for a starter. (We can't all be Gerald Wallace!)

I think I might revise my initial estimates down a bit; 13-16 PPG seems like a reasonable range for the playing time he'll get. And that's okay by me. His percentages are good because he's the king of shot selection; I don't think defenses scheming for him will reduce those, because if he's not open, he won't force up a bad shot. He'll shoot fewer shots per minute, but he won't shoot bad shots. But a lower shot-per-minute rate will depress his points per game, even while his offensive efficiency stays high.

Of course, this assumes no new offensive weapons, no new skills, no new plays run for him, etc. All of these I expect to see in the next two years, and all of these will pump those number up a bit.

 

This is what I was thinking. Don't have much of an opinion on his defense, but it's gonna be Dame, him, CJ, and...*crickets* on offense. Won't be too difficult for teams to scheme against. His raw numbers (PPG, RPG, etc.) will go up with increased minutes, but his efficiency will definitely go down. But, the biggest thing in all of that is he's going to be climbing up that learning curve more rapidly than before. Making mistakes is only a bad thing if you don't learn from them and he'll have plenty of chances to learn and grow this year.

 

AW FUCK!! Mason's situation was, like, exactly like Plumlee's? 7 or 8 game stretch of filling in for some injure Lopez brother?

FUCK! I hate wasted effort!

No, I refuse. That took effort, and I don't do effort often.

 

I hand-calculated all those numbers! If I can do something simple for Mason, I will.

 

He can and will get better on the defensive end. I'm a big believer in advanced stats, but I don't know of any that eliminate catch-and-shoot, which is much of what Biebs does. How many times has he been double teamed? That being said, there's nothing wrong with having a Kyle Korver out there on offense.

 

Leonard need to retool his shooting motion to become a really dangerous weapon. Currently, he has a slow release (I compared it in another thread to Danny Ferry's set shot style), which means he can't go around a screen and come out the other side firing and he's not "open" if his man is just a step or two off him--his release is slow enough that that defender can recover and force him to pull it back down. Right now, he's a great shooter when he's absolutely wide open. That has value, as a sniper who benefits from pick-and-roll chaos elsewhere on the court leaving him unaccounted for, but it limits his ceiling. If he can speed up his release, he can become a much more important player, a guy you can actually run sets for.

 

As per my previous post, Danny Ferry would be my comp.

 

How many times have you seen Danny Ferry dunk like this?

 

Okay Mason's performance...

Mason played a lot last season, so let's talk about his numbers when he plays 30 minutes or more:
In 18 games: 107/163 (65.6%FG), averaging 15.1/9.9 in 34MPG. He was 5.9 for 9.0 from the field.

Those are some burly numbers!

How is he when he's a focus of the offense? When he gets 8 or more shots (28 games):
167/277 (60.3%FG), averaging 14.5/8.8 in 28MPG. He was 6.0/9.9 from the field.

In short? I'm really REALLY pleased with these numbers.

 

I wouldn't mess with his shot at all. Its far and away his best attribute. He is one of the only big men to ever shoot 50/40/90. If you start changing one aspect of his release its going to change something else and all of the sudden theres a very real chance he won't be as accurate. Yes its a slow release but thats not as critical for a 7 footer. How many guys are getting their hands above him 25 feet from the hoop? Not many. If he makes the other team guard him at the three point line then the rest of the Blazers can go 4 vs 4 and it really opens the offense. Memphis was one of the best defensive teams in the league but they still had trouble with him. Once they focused on permanently sticking a guy way out on Meyers it opened the middle for CJ.

 

I didn't say the team should or shouldn't change his shot, just that his ceiling is limited as is. I did note that even as is, he's a useful player and it's true that if he became less accurate, he could become an NBA non-entity. On the other hand, coaches adjust players' shooting motions and mechanics all the time. Kerr has had some input in Curry's mechanics. It's not at all uncommon, much like batters adjusting their swing in baseball based on their teams' hitting instructors' recommendations, and I can't, immediately, recall a player's shot being "ruined" by an overzealous coach (though I'm sure it's happened). We shouldn't exaggerate the risks too much; it wouldn't surprise me at all if they do work on his shot a bit. There's also a big difference between suggesting some subtle alterations and telling him to overhaul his shot entirely.

 

I'm mostly glad I figured out I could paste the data sheet from the site into Excel

 

It'd require a smart, quick, and fearless distributor... if Leonard and Plumlee average 15 each, that means Dame is averaging 10+ assists a game.

 

It's also a question of what's the biggest weakness he should focus on? A player can only work on so many aspects of his game at a time. If he is spending hundreds of extra hours tweaking his shot that's time he could be working on something else. Meyers has plenty of areas in his game he could make big improvements. Shooting isn't very high on the list.

 

Indeed, that's a worthy consideration, but not the only one in that vein. There's also a question of how much value more work will yield in each area. It's possible that no matter how many hours he devotes to it, he'll be an ordinary defender or a poor passer. It's also possible that his route to being an impact player involves turning his shooting from a strength as a wide-open spot-up shooter into a major strength as a shooter who can shoot off the dribble or catch-and-shoot before a close-out.

I'm not saying that that's certainly true for Leonard. That's something coaches would be better equipped to decide. But it's not as simple as "he's already good at shooting, so his time would be better spent on things he's not good at." Sometimes, there's more value to be mined from honing a strength rather than polishing a weakness.