While I agree with just about everything in your post, Crawford is the antithesis of "consistent" jump shooter. He might be (no stats for this) the streakiest jump shooter in the league right now. Out of his 64 games last year, only 24 were "average" shooting games of 34-50%. 26x he shot 33% or below ("bad"), and 12 times he shot over 50% ("good"). His bell curve looks like a uphill slope. **Arbitrary alert...yes, I picked those %s. You can pick different ones if you'd like** LMA, on the other hand, had 21 "good" games, 38 "average" games, and 9 "bad". Dame had 23 "good", 41 "average" and 18 "bad".
I'd love to see those stats on Nic. He may have averaged 9 ppg last year but it often seemed to be either 4 or 14. Even when it was an average game, it was due to about a 3 minutes stretch where he got hot, hit a couple of shots and then disappeared for the rest of the game.
35 bad, 19 average, 17 good. If 50% is moved into the good category, then Batum only had 12 "average" games out of 71.
I ran the FG% a while back. My definitions are different than BFWA's. Great = 60%+ Good = 50-59% Average = 40-49% Bad = 30-39% Terrible = <30% Last season Nic's shooting breaks out as follows: Great = 10 games (14.08%) Good = 14 games (19.72%) Average = 5 games (7.04%) Bad = 21 games (29.58%) Terrible = 21 games (29.58%) However, here's the previous season: Great = 12 games (14.63%) Good = 26 games (31.71%) Average = 23 games (28.05%) Bad = 13 games (15.85%) Terrible = 8 games (9.76%) Compared to LMA's last season: Great = 11 games (15.49%) Good = 21 games (29.58%) Average = 18 games (25.35%) Bad = 18 games (25.35%) Terrible = 3 games (4.23%)
Strong work. I just put together some basics b/c I didn't want to spend all night doing bell curve analysis and standard deviations--especially for Jamal Crawford But I think the point was proven.
I did this a while back when I didn't have anything to do at work. It was to be in response to all the summer posts about how inconsistent Nic is, and how awesome LMA is...but that's all been rendered moot.
Not going to hurt our season to have him get garbage minutes. If it pays off people will look bak and say what a genius move, if not, it was only a $650k gamble out of Pauls pocket book, not a big loss.
Montero- kid oozes raw talent. I can see why Blazers are giving him a shot. The kid needs playing time and would probably benefit from a year in d-league but IMO he's definitely got NBA talent. One of those low risk high reward type players you keep around. Watching the Twolves game and his drive and dish in the paint shows he has good feel for the game. Obviously hasn't played this high of talent level but I really like what I see.
I agree players need "playing time" to learn the true pace and flow of NBA basketball, but at his stage of development, D-League may do more harm than good. Hell, he may not even be ready for D-League. Better to keep him close to home, train him at his and the team's pace in practice, but don't put the grind and pressure of an 82-game NBA season on him. Maybe send him down to the D-League for a short stint during his second season, but for now, I think he's better off training with the Blazers coaches, who can mold him the way they want, instead of unleashing him to play rat ball in the minors.
Last night he went left down the baseline and hit Vonleh I think with a sick lefty no look pass for a dunk so, even if it's not his strength, he can still pull off some good shit. I'm digging his game and if he can shoot the 3 off the dribble, which it looks like he can, he could be killer off the bench in a year or two
I don't understand why some people would be upset about a high potential guy on a small contract sitting in street clothes.
Basically a paid training period. No expectations of production yet, with the understanding of expected returns once he hits the floor. I think it would make perfect sense for most teams to take this tack with one or two guys every year.
True but irrelevant. We should do what's best for the team, not him. The team can benefit more by warehousing his Telfair-like probability of becoming usable, and instead picking up a much better substitute from the many who are or will become available...especially on the day before the regular season starts, and at the Midseason Trade Deadline when we need to meet the minimum team salary for the season.
Don't need to meet any minimum salary. They just divide it among the players. Also it's borderline insulting that you've already figured what this kid can or can't become based on like 20 minutes of summer league.
I wonder if Coach has been given any orders by the higher ups to play the young guys as much as possible, even at the expense of some wins. It would seem like this would be the year to do it. If Stotts can do whatever he wants, then I can't see Montero getting much time at all unless he really shows improvement in practice and we have a rash of PG injuries.
