There should be 2 lists of misses. 1) You missed the player's spot if the draft were reformulated today, vs. 2) you were below the player's spot in his actual draft. ...by more than 5 spots (10 if 2nd round)
Yep. What you're describing is essentially what I've tried to do when I line up my filters and look at different models. Maximizing how much talent the model grabs as compared to the what the actual draft looked like, taking into account what the draft 'should have' looked like. If I 'correct' one draft, it throw 2 other drafts out of sync. It's about striking that middle ground balance. There will always be that variability that a player changes their style (matures?) and steps up and succeeds (or fails) in the NBA where all of his college stats indicate that he wouldn't. 'Misses' will happen. I'm okay with 'missing' a player, as long as I can pick up a couple 'wins' in the process.
None of those is too bad, although it's interesting they include 3/5 of the Blazers' starting lineup, an ex-Blazer and someone we drafted and swapped for Brandon Roy. It's also the case that a lot of the whiffs were drafted low anyway (Parsons, Matthews, Butler, Prince) although some weren't (Deron, Aldridge).
What I think is most impressive is his high assist rate for a PF, especially since I just read that article that said that's the new "must have" in the NBA. Plus he's very versatile. I dunno if he'll work in the NBA but I predict stardom for him in Europe (and I'm actually being sincere here).
Ask and ye shall have him brought in for a workout (today). Likewise George Lucas de Paula. Now if the Blazers bring in Josh Richardson it'll be spooky...
Cameron Payne at 4 is a sign of how good your model works. I guarantee he'll be the steal of this draft. Top mid-major guards have a good track record the past few years, and hes a Mike Conley clone. He'll be better than Mudiay and possibly at the same level as Russell.
It'll be interesting to see where Cameron Payne is drafted. NBADraft.net has him at #14. DraftExpress has him at #14. 4 out of the 5 analysts from DraftExpress (http://www.draftexpress.com/article/Analytics-Models-and-the-NBA-Draft-5021) didn't have Payne in their top 14. Payne was #13 in the NCAA for points per game (20.2 ppg), he was #15 in the NCAA for assists per game (6.0 apg), he had a very nice 2.4 assist-to-turnover ratio, he averaged almost 2 steels per game, shot 37.7% from 3 point range, and he pulled down quite a few rebounds for a guard (3.7 rpg). There's a lot to like with those numbers. Very well balanced. He's going to have to out perform some pretty good competition though if he's going to earn that #4 spot that he got from my model. Only time will tell..
even if he doesn't end up the 4th best player, he's still underrated going into the draft, which your model is stating. It's going to be more about situation that anything.. if I'm Indiana or Charlotte though I'd be thinking about selling Hill/Kemba for a pick and cap space and drafting him. The kid pays with Lillard poise with a more balanced attack. He can shoot (not great but it will improve), he can defend, he can drive and finish crafty layups/floaters.. he can be deadly on the break but also set up and run half court offense effectively and he's already proven that he's more than capable at running an NBA pick n roll. The only knocks on him are the same knocks that Dame CJ and Payton have disproved the past 3 years. He should be a top 10 pick
Did you not see Cliff Alexander in the first group of players ranked? That's pretty cool to see! I didn't read this thread when it was first posted, so thanks for the necrobump!
Connaughton came in with a BdB score of 27.8, #54. The problem with his stats is that he played mostly power forward in college. This program isn't keen on a 6'5" power forward. His 'raw' score was 37.5 (low end bench player), but then it couldn't find any successful NBA matches so it pulled his score down to 27.8.
Yeah, when I first looked at the results, most of the names in the top 15 I recognized. Alexander was the one that jumped out that didn't fit. After reading a bit more about him, I understand why he slid. Of course this program isn't able to see things like 'low BBIQ' or 'Under investigation by NCAA'. Even with those issues, I expected him to be a second round pick. When he played, he showed solid numbers.
