Legit game changers to put Portland into contention

Sacremento, if DMC is on the market, would take our package if we went all out for him. Basically it'd then be getting good players with the cap space, and if we fall a little short, trading space for a solid player, building a top 5 or 10 bench with shooters in the starting lineup, or saving the space till next year.

Olshey's current situation is:
IF McCollum reaches his potential
IF Meyers reaches his potential
IF Vonleh reaches his potential
IF we get lucky in the draft lottery
IF we attract a borderline allstar FA
THEN we'd be contenders

I see your point as well, there's IFs both ways. I like the chances with Boogie better.

 

I do not support trading the amount of potential you've been recommending for Boogie. I think the "if" factor is more risky than the "if" factor of our potential hitting their potential.

And we really don't need everyone of the potential players to hit their potential. We need just one and the others become above average. If Leonard or Vonleh reach their potential, they are just as good as getting Boogie without the headcase factor.

 

Tristan Thompson?

http://espn.go.com/nba/story/_/id/1...-16-season-forced-take-1-year-deal-agent-says

He wants a max contract?!?!

 

the thing is, its we could certainly get Boogie, and your situation your comparing to is conditional.

Teams like Utah and Minnesota could make the same argument you are. A lot of teams could. That's the problem.

 

And I'm not recommending giving up all of them, even though I'd probably do it. I just think we should give up enough to get him. If that's for what you're suggesting then great, and I hope that's the case

 

Original Q: Bet the farm for.....to pair with Lillard?

Answers:
Lebron (not a chance)
Durant (not likely)
Davis (not likely)
Cousins (maybe)

It's a short list.

This team is hoping for a 2007 miracle re-do - that is - getting a top 3 pick. We're already 3 years into average rebuild and yet we didn't even know it till last month!!

 

And to clarify previous quoted trade from 2006:

#2 pick Aldridge and 2nd Rd pick was traded by Bulls to Blazers for #4 Tyrus Thomas and Viktor Kryapa.
IIRC we obtained #6 pick Roy for #7 pick Foye and no other assets.

 

Yeah, he's not getting the max.

 

If we had Trader Bob as GM Boogie would probably already be on the team.

 

They could but we have Dame. With dame, we always have a chance.

 

Wiggins will be a superstar 3 years from now, Towns will be a borderline allstar..

Gobert could be a top 3 or 5 center three years from now and Hayward will be a borderline all star.

Sure we got Dame, but we're in the same boat as them even if one of our guys becomes a borderline all star.

 

Great post. Yes it would be a huge gamble that DMC fulfills his potential AND the Blazers are able to sign multiple starting level free agents when they've historically signed almost none. All the eggs would be in that basket. If DMC is injured or a misfit the team is garbage. If the team can't attract free agents the team is garbage. But even if they hit both of those gambles that isn't the only step of team building we'd have to execute; we'd also need this new group to play well together plus get some bench production from minimum salary players. That is a very precise outcome that has to be hit perfectly for the plan to work. Its like putting all your money on a roulette number and salivating at what you'll spend the 50x profits on; yes the payoff is huge but 49/50 times your losing everything.

The plan Olshey is working on now has a very diversified risk profile. If CJ, Plumlee and Harkless all fail and are total scrubs we still have Meyers, Vonleh, Davis, Aminu, Crabbe, Pat. We don't even need all of that second group of players to succeed. If Meyers, Aminu and Pat are terrible we still have Vonleh, Davis and Crabbe. We can have most of our players on the roster fail but still make great steps in building the team. If the team adds another piece of talent in next years draft and one in free agency winning a playoff series a few years from now is possible. Those are small realistic goals.

We are in asset accumulation phase of the rebuild. We have a lot of young players that can increase in value. They could become good starters for us; or highly sought after trade assets. Right now all of these pieces have much lower value around the league; so there's no point in dealing them for the best veterans we can. These young pieces are more likely to increase in value here where we have ample playing time available. We need to give them time on the court and some will become worthless; some will increase in value.

 

If if if. Dame is and already proved he's a stud. Oden was supposed to be a once in a lifetime center, Larry Johnson was supposed to be the next Wilkens. Fact is, these players aren't there yet and Dame already has risen. There are more busts than stars.

 

Do we have enough second rounders to pry that away from San Antonio?

 

Stole my Thunder. Durant and Anthony with Dame would be a run at the title every year for the next decade.

 

Although he's not a superstar......I hope we are going to make a play for Harrison Barnes next summer. Sweet shooting SF! Great fit next to DL. Get-able because GSW will have trouble matching, as they already have max or near max with Curry, Thompson and Green.

 

Yes I agree in that Barnes gets the max but I would be shocked if they don't match. Curry is the only contract that will be for the new higher max and that is a couple years from now. Bogut and Iggy will be off the cap by then. Thompson and Green are on the old lower not quite max deals that will be mid priced contracts when the cap goes over $100 mil.

If we go after restricted free agents it needs to be guys like the Wes Matthews, Demarr Carroll from two years ago, Paul Millsap from two years ago, Omer Asik, Trevor Ariza type of free agents. Guys that aren't yet max players but could become good starters if they improve their game. They have promise but concerns. Thats basically what we did with the Ed Davis and Aminu signings. Look at how much Tobias Harris, Enes Kanter, Reggie Jackson all got and their teams still kept them. Stealing another teams restricted free agent on a max deal won't be possible until 2018 when the cap stops rising so much. Although at that point max contracts will be close to $40 million per year.

 

The thing is, I'm fine with the Boogie plan failing. If 2 years from now, he doesn't pan out you trade him during his final year for picks. You hardcore tank the next year, get a #1 pick, and hopefully whatever you kept keeps developing. You can use your top 3 pick in a package for whatever allstar is on the market then, and give free agency another go. If you don't trade him you have a great young piece who should be on a higher level than CJ, Meyers and Vonleh are now. You then use cap space for young guys or lopsided trades.

Also, if we get Boogie, we'd just need him to not go downhill and we'd be in good shape. I think he'd be fine in a better culture and organization. And we wouldn't need to add a star free agent. We could surround him with solid vets whow fit well, like we had last year, but we'd also have enough cap to build a top 10 bench. Then the cap goes up from around $90M to $10M, and depending on the extensions of big men we have, we could have $10M in cap to add to that group, or at the very least, our MLE and Bi-Annual Exceptions.

Keeping on this track likely puts us in the place no one wants to be down the road.... a fringe playoff team. It's hard to get out because either you get lucky or, most likely, you get bad again to try to reload again. Thing is this reload would be further down the road, and we might not have enough time left in Lillard's prime for that.

 

BJ - a lot of people are on-board with trading for DMC. You're framing your argument in a way that makes it seem like you're the only one who wants to get him - that's not the argument. The argument is over your willingness to stupidly and unnecessarily sell the entire team to get him. You're essentially walking onto a used car lot waving around a large bag with a dollar sign on it, throwing it at the Terry Stotts-looking motherfucker walking towards you, and shouting "GIMME A CAR!". Then when he shows you a mid-90s Ford Explorer with some rust issues you hand over your credit card to fork out even more for it.