Not sure I agree Olshey’s plan was to be contrarian this off-season. It was more about him picking up young players with high potential while giving up the least amount of assets. The last two off-seasons, we called Olshey's value moves dumpster diving. All of those moves resulted in short contracts. His plan this season appears to be the same plan as the last two off-seasons; he took what the other GMs gave him. Except Olshey moved his action to a better class of dumpsters, and gambled on the young kids by giving them longer cheap contracts. SlyPokerDog could never be the Blazers mascot. He can’t keep his eyes off of the fire hydrants.
The greatest trick the devil ever played on humans was convincing us that it was Phil Jackson and Greg Popovic's systems that won those championships, not The Best Players in the Game.
This is a great observation, but I don't think it is a deliberate effort by Neil to do the contrarian thing. I simply think he is in scramble talent acquisition mode to get as many cheap, young players as possible. Coincidentally, they are turning out to be big guys who don't really fit the league's trend of going small. Talent aside, we definitely have some holes in the wing for skilled players.
It's been proven over and over again that General Managers and coaches in the NBA, far beyond most other sports, don't know what it takes to win championships. Because the on-court players are so small in number (half that of other sports), individual talent doubles or more in value over other sports (goalies, pitchers, or quarterbacks may equal the value of a single player in basketball, but often not really). The NBA, and basketball in general, doesn't have an ironclad stratagem or set of strategies that, when performed cleanly and efficiently, turn the odds significantly in your favor. Good shooting? Depends on game-to-game consistency, which basketball is practically designed to prevent: Players are allowed incredible freedom in how they approach defense compared to other sports. And the emphasis on individuals with personalities and skills and talents unique to them means that you're not getting a particular defense 82 games. So you can't even say "good defense wins championships" without adding the caveat that all of your players on the court have to have compatible mindsets about defense, compatible personalities, and oh, they also need to be able to play offense really well together in about 20 seconds because you don't have a dedicated offensive team. Add to that the interpretation of the rules by the refs who again must deal with the incredible freedoms players are given in the sport compared to "open hand only", or "don't use your hands". And when computers eventually replace home plate umps for strike zone calls and first base outs, the last major game-long efforts of ref interpretation will be gone from baseball. Only basketball with three people trying to manage the personalities and skill variances of 400 players night in and night out will remain, a 48-minute long negotiation between players who want to get away with as much as possible (just like a pitcher working those corners), and refs who want the game to be played with a minimum of actual cheating, but with a maximum of personality, because they, more than any other people in any other league, realize that these characters make the game work. I guess what I'm getting at is that, after every championship, coaches and GMs all go crazypants about following the trend with lesser players, then wonder why they got the 8th seed. Smart teams who win championship get the right compatible personalities with the most talent they can, work the markets and the draft to get better players that go well with their stars, and hope for a lot of luck. Luck, more than in other sports, seems to rule basketball. But when you look at the size of the ball and the size of the hoop, it makes a ton of sense.
I don't think defense wins championships at all. It takes a Jordan and a Pippen, great on offense, to be willing to play defense to win championships.
I'm starting to think that basketball isn't so much a team sport, but five boxing matches happening at the same time with a ball to determine which boxing match is the main event.
Certainly the Jordan and Pippen plan works, but the Detroits and the San Antonios didn't really follow that plan and they have done well too.
