So: are we going to be TOO good?

How is looking at past production and using that as context for judgement about a team's potential "pessimistic?" That's the definition of the empiricism. As a guy who works in a scientific field that's the only valid way I know to make predictions.

 

If we're middling near the end of the season, you have to bet that Terry/Neil will start reporting injuries to make our vets sit.

This leadership has shown that they definitely do buy into tanking (losing 13 straight to finish out the season in Dame's rookie year with injuries to LA/Wes/Nic). No reason why they won't do it again.

Not getting a top 5 pick this year will be disappointing.

 

LMAO. The only person that needs to sit is Damian. Not like losing Ed Davis for a few games is really going to make a difference.

 

Disappointment with not getting a top 5 pick this year will be disappointing.

 

Not as much expectation as much as it is hope. I want a legit chance at Simmons/Skal.

 

I didn't say looking at the past is being pessimistic, I said I think the pessimists are using past stats. There is a difference between the two you know right?

Also, you STILL haven't answered my question you thought you answered so directly.

 

Thanks, Ive been trying to think of the right way to put it. Why would we want another potential, when we have so many already?

I have yet to read ANYONE from this board who is wanting a lotto pick answer my question with any type of substance.

 

I would love to see us get a top 5 pick.

The reason? As of right now, I don't see any other potential superstars on our roster other than Dame. I think there's a couple guys who have the potential to be All-Stars. CJ could maybe nab a spot. At the very least he could be a 6th man of the year a la Jamal Crawford.

I think Leonard has as good a chance right now of developing into an All-Star as Aldridge did going into his 4th season. I really like Vonleh's potential as well, but none of those guys really have that superstar feel to them, and in this league you really need at least two stars. Getting a top five pick gives us a legit chance at grabbing another possible superstar to go with Dame and whoever else we can sign this summer.

 

Exactly.

Who wouldn't love for Leonard et al to break out? But what's the likelihood of any of our guys outside of Dame to turn into an superstar? Sure there's a lot unknown about these lotto dudes, and no one really knows how legit they are to begin with. But there's a reason they're so highly talked about and we shouldn't dismiss that

Given what it takes to win in the league, finding a high level prospect is indeed a big deal.

 

I guess that's where ya lost me. I can buy into the bulk of what you said until you called the lottery a legit chance at an all star.

I will have to pull up the thread where I posted the lotto picks from years past and how most of them were busts. To me, a lotto pick next year is yet another player with a ? on his shoulders, like over half our current roster. My point is why would it be so good to trade a ? for a ?

Now, lets say in your scenario that both CJ and Leonard make those steps. I would think a much more feasible move would be to trade for that next guy, not hope the lotto comes and we get him. Heck the lotto is a way more of a crapshoot than trades. How do we know the draft isn't going to consist of the top 5 or 8 players being nothing we need? Maybe the lotto pick we get doesn't have a superstar potential available in the position of need? To tank is a huge gamble either way in my opinion.

 

I said this back a couple years ago during Dame's rookie year and was booed off stage.

 

Ah, but you're forgetting the x factor...... Neil Olshey.

He drafted Dame.

He drafted CJ.

He drafted Leonard and Crabbe.

Most of his picks are turning out to be pretty solid. Obviously we'd love to have a Gobert of a Greek Freak, but those guys were a bit of an unknown commodity. It doesn't seem like Neil is an international guy. I think if you give him a top five pick, he either uses it to trade for a real asset or he drafts someone that's going to have a high chance of being special.

 

I agree. None of those guys were a top 5 though and he was planning for a major change of which he could draft almost any position. Now it is getting more specific with the needs.

You got me there, NO has been a beast at finding those who are forgotten by the league and developing them.

Okay. With that said, I still think we are worse off if we end up in the top 5 ( unless we truly, purposely and seriously tank half the season). This means that the players we wanted to take a leap, didn't do so.

Id still be happier with a missed playoffs and seeing these guys grow and improve. Otherwise that lotto pick may have to go to the replacement of a CJ or Meyers, which really gets us no better than we are now.

If we end up in the lottery for any other reason than an obviously major tank job, we are in a worse position than we are in now.

 

Natebishop3

Thank you for engaging!!!

 

D'Angelo Russel will be interesting to follow. A guy who most everyone agreed has super star written all over him while still in college. The Laker faithful were ecstatic about getting him at #2. Lot of people here said he was the best player in the draft. The Lakers tanked to get that pick. They got another high pick the year before.

Too early to tell how it will turn out for him. But fans are a little more worried about the pick than they were on draft day. It's a crap shoot.

 

That was because you forgot to drop the mic........

 

Great example of playing the lotto game and losing. It is a real gamble. Id rather steer clear, develop the ones we have and trade for what we still need.