So: are we going to be TOO good?

If you can make the play-offs - great. We won't.

As for the rest - we will just have to agree to disagree. You consider the draft a crap-shoot...I consider free agency a bad joke.

 

Meyers Leonard drafted at 11
TRob drafted at 5
Wes Mathews, undrafted
We now have about 9 top draft picks without drafting most of them and I don't consider them bad jokes..we disagree.

 

So yeah this year and next year rebuilding is fine. But if he's 27 and we aren't a playoff team that means we're years away from the jump to playoffs and years on top of that away from the playoff team to contender jump. With a star nearing 30 we wouldn't necessarily have to trade him but it'd become an option to seriously consider.

 

No.

 

It's funny because when we were a playoff team without home court the narrative was that was the worst position; in purgatory. Not a favorite to win a series but not acquiring lottery picks. Now the narrative some fans have is we have to not only be in the lottery but also have one of the top picks. A lottery pick that isn't top 5 is now purgatory. But we have to keep the talent of an allstar on the team with young players who have upside? That an unlikely set of criteria to aim for.

 

Lets draft another tall white center who can shoot 3's. After seeing Sacramento's announcer get tripped up I think it would be fun to see everybody confuse Plumlee/Leonard/Tall White Draft Pick

 

The Legend and the Dragon

 

I have a feeling we will.

 

Exactly. The team will improve from within next season.

 

I just don't want to get any younger after this season..next off season I want needle movers .

 

Kobe didn't play with Magic.

 

Then we better not draft Benjamin Button

 

We are looking at it from different points; if we AREN"T concerned with Damian's timeline, then we SHOULD want a top 5 pick to grow next to him, whom will most likely be reaching potential when Damian is 29/30.

If we ARE concerned with his timeline then we SHOULDN'T want a top 5 pick, we should want to win, because we don't have time to develop an 18 year old for 4 years then make a playoff push. Doesn't make sense. Pretty much waste 4 years of Damian's contract to develop someone who MIGHT take us over the top?

For that reason, Damian's timeline should be a concern to us all, immediately. His timeline wouldn't be a concern to me in two years if we still are a middling team; thats when you move away from Damian's timeline. Not now.

 

Tell me who on this roster is going to be our 2nd all-star? One stud and a bunch of competent rotation players aren't going to get the job done.

Some of you need to put down the box-wine and recognize that "young" doesn't mean "high ceiling." No amount of time,patience, or hope is going to change that. This roster isn't talented enough. Accept it and move on!

 

This roster that just really beat the Warriors starters into the ground? That's not talented? We have no idea how much improvement we'll see from guys like Leoanard, CJ, Harkless, Aminu, Davis, Vonleh or even Henderson...there's talent on this roster..that doesn't translate instantly to chemistry but it's all coaching..I'm not saying contender but we've got a good chance of having a couple of these guys make huge gains this season.

 

I'd accept your "young doesn't mean high ceiling" if the roster was full of Luis Montero's, Cliff Alexander's and Tim Fraziers.

Noah Vonleh is a 20 year old lottery pick; that is a high ceiling. Meyers is a lottery pick who had one of the best shooting seasons in the history of the league. CJ is another lottery pick with two years left on a rookie deal that had back to back 20 point playoff games. Yes there are unrealistic fans saying we are for certain making the playoffs; but its just as ridiculous to say for certain none of our young players have a high ceiling.

Look at the Lakers, or Nuggets, or Twolves, or Mavs, or Suns, or Jazz? Who are their second all stars? We have no idea because they don't even have one. All unproven young players are a risk. Thats why Neil filled the roster with a bunch of them. I'm not sure what strategy you'd prefer to get a top5 pick; should the Blazers trade away Lillard? Or trade Vonleh, Meyers and CJ for future picks?

 

This year? No, we aren't too good. Inexperience and possibly injuries (knock on wood) will keep ups top 5 but we aren't getting a top 2 pick imo.

However, I think the talent is here in 3 years. One of Leonard, CJ or Vonleh will make an All-Star game (as a reserve) in 3 seasons. Now will that be enough for us to be a championship contender? Maybe not. But the cupboard certainly isn't bare imo.

Remember, we have a shitload of cap space (although so do other teams this summer) to add a 2nd star. So it is conceivable we have a big 3 in 3 years if what I said about the All-Star game player on our roster being true.

 

I agree that we don't want to be stuck in that purgatory middle ground. However, to have a legitimate shot at making it to the finals, I think you need to have two all-star caliber players, along with at least 4 more solid starter-caliber players. This current team only has the single all-star. No one else on the roster has proven that they're worthy of being called a solid starter yet.

By the end of this year I think we'll know exactly what we have with Aminu (25), Davis (26), and Plumlee (25). A few players will hopefully show improvement this year, but I don't think we'll really know what we have until next year - McCollum (24), Leonard (23), and Crabbe (23). Others are probably 2-3 years away from even having an idea what their potential may be - Harkless (22), Connaughton (22), Vonleh (20), and Alexander (19).

Can we find an all-star and 4 starter-caliber players in that crop of potential? I'm hopeful, but I think we'll need help from the draft and free-agency. My guess is that over the next 2 years, 3 of this current young group will rise up and become worthy of being called a solid starter.

Where are we going to get that second all-star and another solid starter? I think we can lure a sold starter thru free agency. Luring an all-star thru free agency will be tough though. If we can do that, we'll be back in the hunt in about 2-3 years. If not, we'll need to look at getting that all-star thru the draft. If we go that route, we're 4+ years out from really competing at a top level. What are the odds of landing a all-star in the draft?



If we win between 32-38 games this year, that will probably put us in the 8-12 draft range. That draft choice probably wont be much benefit to us next year, so my guess is we'll be at the tail end of the lottery again after next season. I think we'll get two swings at landing an all-star and/or a top level starter thru the draft. Looking at this graph, I give us a 25% chance of finding a difference maker. Then it will take us 2 more years to really develop that player into our core. I think we're 4-5 years out from truly competing at a high level. That's still within Dame's window of top productivity.

With that being said, I think we're going to see some fun basketball this season, and I'm looking forward to watching these young guns grow.