Trump Dominating polls, even with RINO plants sabotage him

The later half of the interview talks about him predicting where we are today.

 

http://www.umass.edu/newsoffice/article/new-umass-poll-finds-donald-trump-and-ben

New UMass Poll Finds Donald Trump and Ben Carson Have a Dominant Hold on Likely Republican Primary Voters
Contact: Jared Sharpe 413/545-0444
AMHERST, Mass. – Donald Trump and Ben Carson have a dominating lead over the rest of the field of Republican presidential candidates, and should either of them drop out of the primary race the other stands to benefit the most, according to a new UMass Poll released today by the University of Massachusetts Amherst.

Overall, Trump leads the Republican field with 31 percent of likely Republican voters listing him as their first choice, based on a nationwide online survey of 318 likely Republican primary voters conducted by YouGov America under the direction of the UMass Poll from Nov. 5-13. Carson comes in second at 22 percent, followed by Senators Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio at 13 percent and 9 percent, respectively. No other candidate was able to garner 5 percent support.

The poll also asked the second choice preference among respondents, and 36 percent of Trump supporters named Carson as their secondary choice, while Trump is the second choice preference among 30 percent of those backing Carson, indicating that if one of those two candidates were to leave the race the other would benefit significantly.

“Trump and Carson continue to lead the way as they have for longer than many thought they would, but Cruz and Rubio are well positioned to take advantage if either or both of them falter,” said Brian Schaffner, director of the UMass Poll.

The poll, which also tallied support among confirmed registered voters, also asked respondents to indicate every candidate they were willing to support in their state’s primary, as well as every candidate for whom they would not be willing to vote. Over half of Republican likely voters said they would be willing to support Carson and Trump. Jeb Bush attracted the most opposition among Republicans, with half of all respondents indicating that they would not be willing to vote for him. Other candidates attracting high levels of opposition included Sen. Lindsey Graham, George Pataki, Gov. Chris Christie and Jim Gilmore.

“These are frightening numbers for Bush,” said Raymond La Raja, associate director of the UMass Poll. “More than half of registered primary voters said they would not be willing to vote for him under any scenario. No other top-tier candidate faces this wall of unconvinced voters. Bush may think his campaign treasury will help him outlast other candidates, but that strategy seems implausible if voters do not list him as their second or third choice.

“However, Carson, Rubio and Cruz look well positioned right now,” La Raja continued. “As other candidates leave the dance floor and disappoint supporters, they are the next most attractive dance partners.”

“This poll is more evidence of the anti-establishment mood in the Republican electorate—Republican voters seem strongly opposed to nominating another career Republican party leader,” Schaffner added.

While Trump leads the poll, he also draws more opposition than any of the other frontrunners—nearly one in three Republicans say that they would not vote for him.

“Trump appears to have flat-lined,” La Raja said. “He needs to knock out Carson and Cruz to move forward. But his persuadable voters are fewer than other insurgent candidates. At least one-third of Republican primary voters said they would not consider voting for him.”

Likely Republican voters also said that Trump (40 percent) and Carson (24 percent) would have the best chances of winning a general election campaign.

“For supporters of Trump and Carson this is not just a protest vote,” said La Raja. “They actually think these candidates are best positioned to win the general election. That is fascinating given the weakness of their support among political elites and their total lack of government experience.”

The poll also surveyed 381 likely Democratic primary voters, and found that Sen. Bernie Sanders is struggling to gain any traction against Hillary Clinton. Clinton was the top choice among 63 percent of likely Democratic primary voters, compared to just 29 percent for Sanders.

Democrats also view Clinton as having the best chance of winning the general election, with 78 percent seeing her as the most competitive candidate to take on the Republican nominee, compared to just 19 percent for Sanders.

“Even many of Sanders’ supporters recognize that Clinton has the best chance of winning in November, and that is obviously a key part of her campaign juggernaut,” Schaffner concluded.

YouGov interviewed 1,224 respondents who were then matched down to a nationally representative sample of 1,000 American adults. The respondents were matched to a sampling frame on gender, age, race, education, party identification, ideology and political interest. Likely voters are respondents who said that they would definitely or probably vote in their state’s presidential primary or caucus. Confirmed registered likely voters are those likely voters who the UMass Poll directors were able to match to voter files as active registered voters. The margin of error among Republican likely primary voters is 6.4 percent, and the margin of error among Democratic likely primary voters is 6.0 percent.

 

New Poll: American Voters’ Security Concerns Grow Following Terror Attacks in Paris
For Immediate Release

Contact: Jeff Cartwright, jeff@morningconsult.com, (763) 234-7431

WASHINGTON (November 17, 2015) — A new poll conducted by Morning Consult in the days surrounding the deadly terrorist attacks in Paris finds that American voters increasingly say national security is a top issue determining their vote. Twenty-two percent of voters say security issues are at the top of their minds when they think about national elections, up five points from the previous week and higher than any other issue besides the economy.

Conducted November 13-16, 2015, the weekly tracking poll shows about three in ten Republicans and self-described conservative voters cite security issues as their top concerns. Seventeen percent of Democrats and 20 percent of those who call themselves independents said security was their top concern.

Asked what poses the greatest threat to the United States, 36 percent said either terrorism here at home or groups like the Islamic State. Twenty-two percent said they were most worried about economic collapse.

Republicans enjoy a clear advantage among voters who say security issues are their top concern; among those voters, 53 percent say they would cast a ballot for a generic Republican candidate, compared with just 27 percent who would vote for a Democratic candidate.

“As the economy slowly recovers and global events dominate the headlines, voters are paying more attention to security issues now than they have in the past,” said James Wyatt, Morning Consult’s director of polling. “That’s an opportunity for more experienced candidates running for president: In times like these, voters are looking for a steady hand on the tiller.”

Full topline results are available here.

Full cross tabs are available here.

Real estate mogul Donald Trump continues to lead the Republican presidential field by a wide margin, after seeing his support dip in late October. Trump leads with 38 percent of the vote, twice the level of support of his nearest competitor, retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson, who takes 19 percent.

Sens. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) and Ted Cruz (R-Texas) tie for third, at 7 percent each, while former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush (R) finishes with 6 percent. No other contender scores above 3 percent of the vote.

Trump’s lead is built on strong support from voters who have not attended college and among those who make less than $50,000 a year. In both cohorts, Trump takes 44 percent of the vote. Trump does especially well with voters over the age of 65, among whom he takes 49 percent of the vote, and among Republican voters in Northeastern and Western states, where he scores 52 percent and 42 percent, respectively.

“Pundits have gotten rich declaring the impending decline of Donald Trump — and they’ve been consistently wrong. Morning Consult isn’t the only poll that shows Trump still has life, and that the rest of the field needs to work overtime to catch him,” Wyatt said.

Candidate Nov. 13-16 Nov. 5-8 Oct. 29 – Nov 1 Oct. 22-25 Oct. 15-19
Donald Trump 38% 34% 31% 35% 40%
Ben Carson 19% 19% 21% 20% 14%
Ted Cruz 7% 7% 9% 3% 5%
Marco Rubio 7% 7% 7% 6% 5%
Jeb Bush 6% 8% 7% 8% 6%
Carly Fiorina 3% 2% 2% 3% 3%
Mike Huckabee 3% 3% 3% 4% 3%
Chris Christie 2% 2% 4% 3% 4%
Rand Paul 2% 2% 3% 3% 2%
Lindsey Graham 1% * * * 1%
John Kasich 1% 1% 1% 2% 2%
Bobby Jindal * 1% 1% 2% 1%
George Pataki * * 1% 1% 1%
Rick Santorum * 1% * 1% 1%
Someone else/don’t know 11% 12% 11% 11% 14%
On the Democratic side, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton leads her nearest rival by 31 percentage points. Clinton takes 57 percent of the vote, compared with 26 percent who favor Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.). Just 2 percent said they would vote for former Maryland Gov. Martin O’Malley (D).

Sanders challenges Clinton only with the youngest set of voters; among those between the ages of 18 and 29, Sanders and Clinton are tied at 43 percent. Clinton leads by wide margins among liberals (57 percent to 32 percent), Hispanic voters (52 percent to 38 percent) and African Americans (80 percent to 8 percent), the bedrocks of a Democratic primary electorate.

Democratic voters who cite national security as their most important issue trust Clinton much more than the broader electorate: Those voters favor the former Secretary of State by a 61 percent to 13 percent margin.

Candidate Nov. 13-16 Nov. 5-8 Oct. 29 – Nov 1 Oct. 22-25 Oct. 15-19
Hillary Clinton 57% 54% 56% 53% 56%
Bernie Sanders 26% 28% 26% 26% 24%
Martin O’Malley 2% 3% 2% 5% 1%
Someone else/don’t know 15% 15% 17% 16% 18%
The survey continues to find President Obama’s approval ratings struggling. Just 41 percent of Americans say they approve of the job he is doing as president, while 30 percent say the country is headed in the right direction.

The Morning Consult tracking poll surveyed 2,001 registered voters between Nov. 13 and 16 for a margin of error of plus or minus 2 percentage points. Subsamples of 774 Republicans and Republican-leaning independents and 874 Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents carry margins of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points and 3.3 percentage points, respectively.

For complete cross tabs see here. For topline results see here. To set up an interview with Morning Consult pollster James Wyatt, please contact Jeff Cartwright at jeff@morningconsult.com or (763) 234-7431.

About Morning ConsultMorning Consult is a technology and media company that serves leaders at the intersection of policy, politics business, and Wall Street. Through its technology and media platforms, Morning Consult delivers actionable public opinion polling, original reporting, and market research data on the most pressing issues. Over 200,000 government and industry leaders trust Morning Consult to deliver comprehensive coverage of campaigns and congress as well as the energy, finance, health, and tech industries.www.morningconsult.com

Media Contact:Jeff Cartwrightjeff@morningconsult.com(763) 234-7431

 

I fear for my country if Hillary becomes the Commander in Chief. She is down right scary.

 

http://www.tampabay.com/blogs/the-b...-36-rubio-18-carson-15-cruz-10-bush-9/2254421

Fla poll: Trump 36%, Rubio 18%, Carson 15%, Cruz 10%, Bush 9%
A newly released poll of likely Florida Republican primary voters by the Florida Atlantic University Business and Economics Polling Initiative shows Donald Trump with a two-to-one advantage over everybody else and former Gov. Jeb Bush in fifth place, behind Ted Cruz.

“Despite conjecture that Donald Trump has plateaued, his support in Florida remains very strong and could be growing,” said Kevin Wagner, Ph.D., associate professor of political science at FAU and a research fellow of the Initiative.

On the Democratic side, the Nov. 15-16 survey found Hillary Clinton crushing Bernie Sanders 66 percent to 22 percent. But continues to trail in head-to-head matchups with the Republican frontrunners, trailing Carson 50 percent to 41 percent, and Trump 49 percent to 41 percent.

“While Clinton is losing in all the trial heats, she is winning among females,” said Monica Escaleras, Ph.D., director of the BEPI. “Thus it appears that her strategy of targeting women is working.”

From a release:

The GOP primary fight has not had a positive impact on favorability ratings for many of the candidates. Trump has a favorable rating of just 41 percent among all voters, while 51 percent have an unfavorable impression of him. His numbers are more positive among likely GOP voters, however, with 63 percent favorable compared to 32 percent unfavorable.

Clinton also suffers from negative name recognition, with voters giving her a 41 percent favorable rating, compared with 54 percent saying they have an unfavorable impression of her. Among Independent voters, Clinton’s numbers drop to 35 percent favorable and 56 percent unfavorable.

... The polling sample for the Democratic and the Republican primary consisted of 297 and 355 likely Florida voters, respectively, with a margin of error of +/-5.6 percent and +/-5.2 percent at a 95 percent confidence level. The General Election Sample consisted of 829 registered voters with a margin of error of +/-3.3 percent and a 95 percent confidence level.

 

http://www.shallownation.com/2015/1...rcester-massachusetts-rally-weds-nov-18-2015/

Video: LIVE RALLY - Donald Trump Speech at Worcester, Massachusetts Rally, Weds. Nov. 18, 2015

 

Now that's how a leader holds a press conference!

 

http://www.breitbart.com/big-government/2015/11/19/how-the-media-smeared-donald-trump-as-a-nazi/

How the Media Smeared Donald Trump as a Nazi

A story is making the rounds on Facebook that claims Republican frontrunner Donald Trump is calling for “ID badges” for American Muslims. The image on the story is of Jewish children wearing yellow starts during the Holocaust. Very frightening–and a lie.
Step 1: Seed. The lie begins with a Yahoo! profile in which Trump is asked, supposedly (the reporter does not provide his exact question), if he would “require registering Muslims in a database or giving them a form of special identification that noted their religion.”

Trump does not say yes or no. Instead, he dodges the question, and comes back to the question of monitoring mosques (which the U.S. has done in the past): “We’re going to have to–we’re going to have to look at a lot of things very closely,” Trump said when presented with the idea. “We’re going to have to look at the mosques. We’re going to have to look very, very carefully.”

The Yahoo! reporter, Hunter Walker (a haterof note), construes Trump’s answer as follows: “He wouldn’t rule it out.”

Step 2: Amplify. The story is picked up by CNN. Sara Murray asks whether Trump would “rule out” a database for Muslims–borrowing from Walker’s article. Trump is surprised, and tells her, truthfully, that he never responded to Walker’s question.

Here is their exchange, as reported by CNN:

When Murray asked whether Trump would rule out a database for Muslims, he said he didn’t “know where you heard that.”

“Yahoo News asked you about it, you didn’t rule it out,” Murray said as Trump worked a ropeline after the event.

“No, I never — I never responded to that question,” Trump said.

“So would you not support it?” Murray asked.

“I never responded to that question, Sara,” Trump said.

He added that he didn’t “know who wrote it,” referring to the Yahoo News article, and declined to answer a follow-up question from Murray about whether he would “support something like that,” referring to a Muslim database.

Step 3: Distort. NBC News’ Vaughn Hillyard confronts Trump: “Should there be a database system that tracks the Muslims here in this country?” Trump replies: “There should be a lot of systems, beyond databases. We should have a lot of systems. And today you can do it. But right now, we have to have a border, we have to have strength, we have to have a wall, and we cannot let what’s happening to this country happen any longer.” Hillyard asks: “But that’s something your White House would like to implement?” Trump: “Oh I would certainly implement that. Absolutely.” Hillyard follows up: What do you think the effect of that would be? How would that work? It would stop people from coming in illegally. We have to stop people from coming into our country illegally.” Hillyard asks if Trump would go to mosques to register people. “Different places,” Trump says.

It is clear from the exchange that Trump thinks Hillyard is talking about new entrants to the United States, presumably Syrian refugees. But Hillyard reports Trump’s answer as if he is talking unambiguously about Muslims already in the United States.

Step 4: Smear. Hillyard comes back later, asking Trump: “Mr. Trump, why would Muslim databases not be the same thing as requiring Jews to register in Nazi Germany?” Trump realizes Hillyard is out for blood. “You tell me,” he says, and walks away.

The story goes viral: “Donald Trump Is In Favor Of Legally Requiring American Muslims to Register on a Database,” writes Zeke Miller of Time, linking to Hillyard’s story at NBC. A proposal Trump never made is now an established mainstream media fact.

[Update: The Washington Post‘s Jose A. DelReal got creative, asking the Trump campaign “whether his proposals would require the creation of a special agency.” (The campaign, according to DelReal, did not respond to his query–did not rule it out, perhaps.)]

Note that none of these esteemed journalists bothers to question their own assumptions, or to ask Trump precisely whether he is talking about American citizens or about foreign nationals. They chase their own questions down a broken telephone line.

Step 5: Nazi. Now the dregs of the Internet begin to play up what Yahoo!-CNN-NBC have produced, with Raw Story reporting: “Trump crosses the Nazi line: Maybe Muslims should wear special ID badges.”

He never said that–but at this stage, who cares.

 

LOL

 

#MediaLiesMatter

And btw, every poll Trump is winning by double digits.