Well you make lots of interesting points. I wanted us to make playoffs in 2013 but ending the season on a 13 game losing streak got us CJ so I get that losing helps. If we're 10 games out of the playoffs at the top of March, I'll root for losses and I expect they'd shut down Lillard. BUT if we do make the playoffs, I think we can beat the Warriors. We're a matchup nightmare for them.
I love the optimism but I just don't see how we score with them. It's like Memphis was a bad matchup for us for a couple of years.....nothing we could do. Portland just doesn't have the firepower yet to hang with them for 4 quarters in a pressure situation where they already have experience and we don't.
Do you remember what it was like getting knocked out in the first round over and over? The Jazz knocked us out two years in a row. The Lakers knocked us out in the first round a couple years in a row. Boy that was SO much fun.
Losing gets you to play like HCP's team, the L*kers. They tanked for Julius Randle and D'Angelo Russell. Champs! I'll take 1st round and out and try to get better in the offseason or internal improvement over that.
I'll take the 8 seed for the rest of my life over making a run at a title but missing the playoffs a year or 2.
From 1985-2014 we've had one team draft a player in the top3 and win a title. Thats 30 years, or 90 picks. So its a 1/90 chance or 1.11% chance a top 3 pick will be here to get us a title. Considering we're one of 30 teams I'd expect any sort of mediocre average team building strategy to at the least give us a 1 in 30 chance of winning a title. That would be 3.33%. If you want a championship you should root for the Blazer to NOT get a top3 pick. There is a very strong indicator such a pick will hinder our chances of winning a title.
Well, that works if you like math. However Tim Duncan won 5 of those and going back one year to 1984 gets you MJ and 6. I'll take 5 or 6 rings.
Yeah thanks for proving my point. Its a great strategy if you have the one out of ninety picks who is an all time great and able to build up a cellar dweller to get those titles. Hell I'll throw in MJ and say TWO of ninety one. But for the other EIGHTY NINE times teams used those top 3 picks the strategy failed. That's a terrible strategy in my opinion. But if you think a two in ninety one chance at multiple rings is the ideal way to build an NBA team; keep rooting for that top3 pick.
How about those TWolves? Top 3 picks, even had a couple of back to back overall #1s. Not the pattern to repeat.
What strategy worked then? Getting Shaq and Kobe or Lebron and Wade? How are we doing that at all? Are we going to have Hakeem and trade for Clyde?
Draco, I think you're being overly creative with the math there. Include MJ and Duncan, then you've got a 31 year window. You really have to eliminate those two guys from the championship window for other top picks, if you want the stats to be at all meaningful. #10 picks weren't winning much against those guys, either... So, your down to 20 years of what the other top picks accounted for. Also, LeBron counts for a couple titles even if it wasn't for the team that drafted him. I imagine there are a few other top-3 picks somewhere along the line that would fit that bill. I don't see why it matters which team they were on relative to where they were drafted, as far as your point about draft position and championship impact. (And Shaq, like bodyman said.)
I'd like to see a team full of second rounders compete with any of those teams. And you sure as hell aren't going to draft them yourself and have them compete. I think modern tech is our best chance. Put Meyer's brain in a small guy and put Bill Russell's in Meyer's body.
Also, with the '84-15 or '85-15 window of championships and top-3 picks being looked at, it's completely meaningless if you don't include top-3 picks prior to '84/85 who won championships during that period. So, that's at least 4 more down with Isiah and Hakeem. I'm not sure without research how many LA/Boston also account for. But, we're quickly getting to the point where you have to look at how many teams won during that period without a top-3 pick. An all-star team of 2nd round picks would be interesting, for sure.
Yep--Magic was first overall in '79 and win titles in '85, '87, & '88, so if we're evaluating the past 31 years, those would need to be included too, as would the Celts title in '86 with McHale (3rd overall 1980). In fact, from '84-'99, EVERY NBA title was won by a team led by a player drafted by that franchise in the top 3. Since 2000, however, only the Spurs' titles fit that criterion. It's been a completely different NBA this millennium.
Not surprising with free agency really exploding in the 2000's. Before that you rarely had a marquee player jump ship and go to another team.
How many top three picks made it to the finals but didn't win? I would take a shot at a championship. That would add iverson, durant, and a few others. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
