Tell me wy on earth we'd want to get into the playoffs as the 8th seed, loose our 1st round draft pick and be cannon fodder for the GS Warriors in the 1st round? The Blazers couldn't win that series of their right thumbs depended on it. Please don't make the playoffs Portland.
Blazers might not have a choice. The West is horrible this year, especially at the bottom and a lot of those teams vying for a playoff spot early on (Utah, New Orleans, Phoenix) have or are experiencing injuries to key players. Factor in the Lakers being much worse than most projected and the Wolves being a year or two away and that leaves ... the Blazers. We have the best player of any team fighting for that eight seed (Lillard) and McCollum's not far behind. Also, take into consideration how many road games we've already played, and frankly, I'd be surprised if we didn't end up in the postseason.
They actually should have a solid footing in the 8th spot already, if it were not for all of those close games they blew. It does look like Portland has a good shot at making the playoffs. Oh well, they're going to have a lot of moola to resign free agents. If Stotts wants a stretch four so bad, let Leonard walk and sign Ryan Anderson. Then maybe get a guy like Horford.
Basketball purgatory exists for clubs with a bad attitude. And a losing culture like tanking is how you get to purgatory. Sent from my SM-J110F using Tapatalk
Getting a top 5 pick might not mean shit.. Look at drafts from the past couple years and some of the players drafted: In 2012: MKG 2nd Waiters 4th T-Rob 5th 2013: Bennett 1st C. Zeller 4th 2014 Gordon 4th Exum 5th It's more likely that we get a bench role player type that we could find in free agency anyways. To be a playoff team as young as we are would do wonders for us when it comes to possible free agents. Or we can be a losing team in a small market trying to bank on a star in the draft to just get back to the playoffs anyway.
Of course there is no guarantee....but the vast majority of Superstars in this league were drafted in the top 5. I hope the Blazers make the Playoffs too but not as a 35 win team as is the current projection for the #8 seed. As for the $$$ to spend in the off-season, a ton of teams have cap space with the cap going up so high so that means almost nothing. The West is on the decline and this was the one year chance to get a very good piece to go with Dame/CJ for years to come. Now it's up to development of players like Meyers/Crabbe/Aminu/Harkles/Plumlee/Vonleh.....depending on who stays.
yeah but making the playoffs means we have less distance to go to being a contender and means our pieces have more value. That means Olshey can be more aggressive on the trade market. That also means that free agents will actually take us seriously. Everyone says that it doesnt matter because everyone has cap space but we'll have more of it. Plus, we'll be able to keep our ouch next year in a deeper draft, so really its a wash on that front. We just got to acquire the right guys. We have nice depth right now. We can build a really talented team based on signing free agents (like Derozen or Whiteside) that we could test run or flip at the flip next year for an all star like Cousins, all while continuing to develop Dame and CJ. Or we can draft a guy like Poeltl at 7 or 8 and hope he becomes a solid contributor and then hope to make playoffs next year and lose our pick then... Which doesnt really make sense because we'll be a year behind where we'll be if we make the playoffs this year, all for a probable bench piece...
But having the pick at least gives us a better shot at being a contender - or at least better. Not having the pick puts us much further away from that goal. This whole "the draft is a crap shoot" argument is dumb. Your argument against obtaining an asset is that nothing is guaranteed - which is just the way of the world, not an argument. The two choices available to us are: 1 - Have an asset. 2 - Don't have an asset. Is there anyone that thinks choice #2 is better than choice #1?
That is hardly a fair summary of the position that the Blazers are in. First, with respect to the draft pick owed Denver, it's top-14 protected this year and next. If the Blazers tank and all goes according to your rosy 2016 draft scenarios and we get the missing ingredient, there's virtually no chance the Blazers are bad enough next year to maintain their 2017 pick. So, at best, it's a choice of have an asset this year or have an asset next year. Next, you get into weighing the value of the assets. Right now, the Blazers have the 10th worst record in the league. Of the teams below them, maybe the Pelicans and Nuggets (if they get healthy) have a chance to improve significantly the second half of the season, and the rest of the teams suck and have even more incentive to tank than do the Blazers. Barring ping pong ball miracles, the Blazers are probably looking at an 8-10 pick. Maybe that turns into a CJ, but more likely it's a Meyers, especially if they're drafting for a position of need and go after a scoring big man. That means 4-5 years before that guy is likely to be ready to contribute significantly to a playoff run and it's a crap-shoot as to whether he's a star or a journeyman-level player. Lillard is 29-30 years old by that time and we've wasted his prime years. Color me not enthused at all by that team-building program. I think by far the smarter play is to try to use our existing asset of huge cap space this season to work a lopsided deal at the deadline. Whether that's Ryan Anderson, Brook Lopez, or someone else, I don't know, but I do know that that guy is more likely to be a useful asset within Lillard's prime years than a mid-lottery rookie is. I think trying to win now and adding a player like that makes Portland a dramatically more attractive FA destination this summer. Will that play out and get us an impact player? I don't know, but the old crappola that Portland can't attract FA's is just one of those statements that doesn't really mean much because there haven't been many years that the Blazers had cap space and an attractive team that would appeal to guys wanting to win. I think that this plan is more likely than the tanking scenario to get Portland relevant in the prime of Lillard's career.
You're making a TON of assumptions that can't be made. The post is about having the #4 pick or making the Playoffs. And that boils down to: Having an asset, or Not having an asset Since so many peoples arguments for the Playoffs hinge on internal improvement, that must be applied in both scenarios. Getting a draft pick doesn't negate internal improvement. So, next season, a team with both internal improvement AND a draft pick will (should) be better than a team with just internal improvement. And given that we'll have that improvement regardless of whether we retain our pick this year, it stands to reason that next years pick will be worse than this year's pick. Losing a good pick to retain a worse pick is not a good plan. All that said, I'm in no way saying we should tank. But we absolutely should not be selling the future for a shot at a 1-and-done Playoff appearance. And to me, selling the future means making a mediocre trade like those you described (Anderson, Lopez) and/or playing for the win at the expense of development. Development is the #1 goal this season, and if we actually took it seriously it has a higher chance of paying dividends by increasing internal improvement and potentially putting us in a better draft position.
Well, if you're going on the premise of this thread, this entire discussion is pointless, IMHO. There's virtually zero chance the Blazers end up with the #4 pick. The Sixers, Lakers and Nets aren't going to improve from where they're at as the bottom 3 teams. With the Suns losing Bledsoe, they're the most like team to fall into the 4th pick. I'm not arguing that this year's pick isn't likely to be significantly better than next year's would be, just that there's already an asset that Olshey would have to pass on (using some of his cap space during this season) in order to maximize the chances of getting that elusive 4th pick. I'm hoping that there's something better than a "mediocre" deal out there, but I believe that the more solid pieces that we can assemble this season, the better the chances of attracting a top-level FA this summer become.
Not necessarily. In the East the last decade, were you better being a #8 seed with a 36-46 record or a Western Conference team that won 46 games but didn't get into the playoffs? One team got crushed and then a bad pick, they other won a lot of games and still got a Lottery pick. I wouldn't put either of them at 'contender' status but one of those teams was a lot closer to it than the other and it wasn't the playoff team. This year for the first time in years, it is reversed. By tonight Portland could be a Playoff team on pace to currently win around 35 games. Let's say they get hot and get to 40+ wins. They still lose in the 1st round (again) and don't add a quality pick to that roster. They have cap space in a year everyone has cap space and some team may likely offer Meyers ridiculous money so you either lose him or tie up that cap space with a one-dimensional center. Remember, it's reported he already turned down a 4-year, $60Million deal. I'm all for winning game but instead of the majority of history of the Blazer franchise of being mediocre and stuck in basketball purgatory, I would like to be a contender long term. Them being a low-bar #7/8 seed this year doesn't seem to help that given some of the other circumstances.
Not only that, but if I were a FA, I'd rather sign with a 40 win team than a 20 win one. Especially a 40 win team with youth, depth, and cap space to sign more than the one FA.
10-11 Season, Indy makes playoffs with 37 wins. 3 teams in west had better records. Indy drafted (and foolishly traded) Kawhi Leonard. Alec Burks, Markieff Morris and Marcus mOrris went to the lottery teams. 12-13 Milwaukee made the playoffs with less wins than Utah and Dallas. They took Giannis whatever, Shabazz and Olynyk went previous picks. I'm not finding very many instances where the gap between the west team missing and the east team making it lead that west team to getting a great pick, and the east team a horrible one an dgetting crushed. Obviously, this is off from the initial question of 4 versus playoffs. but I think too often, people both think any 8 seed is automatically purgatory, because you're in the middle, without any acknowledgement whatsoever of the ability of those teams to improve and also ignore what playoff experience can do for a team or player. Almost similar to the CJ thread, of how you can't win with him and Dame, seems like most view building a team as having a specific formula, and I think many teams have shown that there isn't a specific formula for building.
but we add a quality pick to help us do what, win 40 games next year just to lose our pick then? How does that help us?
And I think that's where some of our disagreement stems from. I don't believe there's any difference in the level of Free Agent that we'll sign regardless of where we (realistically) end up at the end of the season. Whether we get the #8 pick or the #8 seed, we'll have access to the same Free Agents. I think we'd get slightly better Free Agent action if we get Ben Simmons, and the only way we'll get access to significant Free Agents is when we make it to the WCF.
