That's the rub though. You can win a record number of regular season games and even be an actual contender for the championship but if you don't get it done, you've "only" won meaningless regular season games. This year, noone considers the Bulls a championship contender. They will win a few, lose a few, probably make the playoffs and probably not go very far, unless someone like Portis or Niko really breaks out to a star level player to play alongside Butler. I'd like to write Derrick's name here but I have a hard time doing that anymore. This is called the miserable NBA middle. Not a good place to be, IMO.
The Bulls front office should decide on a "win now" or "win later" approach. They are trying to do both and its landing the Bulls in the miserable NBA middle. But, IMO, the goal is to win more regular season games than lose and make the playoffs. Its not to win a championship. So the miserable NBA middle is OK. Its certainly not miserable from a dollars and cents perspective. From this fans perspective its frustrating as I'd like to see the team win another championship or get back to being a contender again. I'm not sure another Rose pick is going to fall into the organizations lap again out of the sky sadly. Banking on that isn't really a plan. So, what are they going to do? Judging by the last month and just general disposition, Portis seems like the better prospect than Niko at this point. He's also four years younger. It would be a bitter pill for GarPax to punt on Niko at this point, give how much time and effort they invested in him, so I don't see that happening. Thibs was somehow able to get him into spots and roles where he could thrive more than he his now under Hoiberg. In the end, if they are going "win later," they are going to need to get a coach to get the most out of the young assets. Hoiball isn't getting it done for Niko. Doug's PER is only 10.5 at this point, which while better than last year, isn't very good at all. That's also a cause for concern given he's 24 too. Another consideration is that they just might not be very good. If Niko and McDermott are not NBA difference makers, the Bulls are pretty hosed from a "win later" perspective. Might be best to trade both, if possible, for that difference making 2/3. But is that trade even possible and would another team be interested? You need a significant upgrade from Dunleavy (assuming he can do what he did last year, what the hell is wrong with him and when is he coming back?) for it to matter and this team already has two high usage ball-handlers and Jimmy and Rose.
Yet I don't feel miserable. Still, I know what you're saying. In the next 3 seasons, how many teams have a good shot at a championship? Golden State, Cleveland, San Antonio and...? Some would put OKC in there, but I don't see it. How many actual "win later" teams are there? Philadelphia and...? A season or two ago I might have included teams like Minnesota, Milwaukee, Charlotte, Sacramento, Phoenix and New Orleans, but those teams have gotten their high picks, are more mediocre than good, but can't count on a top-3 lottery pick to bail them out. Are they in that "miserable middle"? Seems to me that 10% of the league are legit contenders, 5% are tanking and 85% are in the middle hoping somehow to get lucky.
If you come to grips with the team you follow probably not winning a championship, well, NBA basketball is fun to watch for the most part. Those four teams initially acquired their MVP level stars via high draft picks. The Bulls likely need them in order to get the franchise altering superstars to build around. I don't think this management team is hell-bent on winning a title. It seems they are pretty pleased with themselves as-is and the financial results are impressive. They are running a successful NBA basketball franchise from a business standpoint. A Bulls fan will likely have to come to grips with following a team that isn't really about winning titles anymore, if they are going to remain a Bulls fan.
^^This Bulls management does not appear to believe that you need to be bad to become good. Rather, they seem to believe that the way to become great is to become good on a sustainable basis and then look for improvement opportunities. This Bulls management has made trades to get additional draft picks and/or to move up in the draft. This is how they obtained Noah, Gibson, Mirotic and McDermott. If you don't see this as trying to improve with an eye towards the long-term, I question your vision. I believe that the Bulls' FO is trying to win a championship, but admittedly don't expect them to succeed in the foreseeable future. I can enjoy following a team that is good, not great. I don't expect the FOs of the teams I follow to do what I want them to do. I'm also a Bears fan and a White Sox fan. Right now, it's a lot easier being a Bulls fan than it is being a fan of those two teams, but as hard as it is to be a Bears and Sox fan, it's not as hard as it was being a Bulls fan after the dynasty when the FO decided to try the "Let's get horrible to become great" strategy. I don't ever want to go through that again...I'm too old for that shit.
Let's be horrible to be great isn't as essential in the NFL and MLB as it is in the NBA, where the franchise altering superstar makes a huge impact and is pretty much essential. Or, to put it better, let's get really high draft picks is pretty much essential to win a title in the NBA. Paxson's Bulls in 12+ seasons have been to the Eastern Conference Finals one time. And that was behind an absurd stroke of luck getting a MVP level player via draft pick while being in the miserable middle. Being one of the 16 teams that make it into the playoffs isn't much of an accomplishment. There were a couple of seasons where the Bulls were legit contenders, but those days are in the past and it seems like they will be content to be Chicago Grizzlies. It fills the arena and makes a boatload of cash and keeps Paxson employed. If you are content making the playoffs and that's about it, Paxson's Bulls will keep you pretty happy. This team isn't considered a title contender anymore. If you are happy with that and no real path to get there, well, enjoy. And who knows, things certainly could somehow turn around for the better. What is the front office doing to try and win a championship and why do you think it will be effective? If you think those 4 are the core to a title, I question yours. Of course, some thought that Hinrich / Gordon / Deng / Nocioni would be a title contender. I questioned that vision quite a lot. In hindsight, it seems quite foolish to think that is a "core 4" of a title contender.
I think I'd rather go through that for another 3 year run. I understand your frustration with it. Its tough. I'm getting up there too but I'd rather have the team try to win a title again then just hover around in the middle. The bad to good path though is tougher to sit through on a night by night basis. If the team can acquire a superstar via trade or FA acquisition, that works too, but I don't see that happening based on past experience. I hope I'm wrong. This just feels like Hinrich / Gordon/ Nocioni / Deng all over again.
The last time the Warriors had a top-5 pick was 2002...Mike Dunleavy (#3), ironically enough. The Cavs have had lots of top-5 picks - Andrew Wiggins (#1) (got them K. Love), Anthony Bennett (#1), Dion Waiters (#4), Kyrie Irving (#1), Tristan Thompson (#4) and Lebron James (#1). Had James not elected to leave the Cavs, they wouldn't have had those high picks. Had he not returned to Cleveland, the Cavs would be also-rans right now despite all those high picks. The last top-5 pick the Spurs had was, you guessed it, Tim Duncan in 1997...good pick. TD's still a very good, uber-efficient player, but he isn't the transcendent superstar he once was. You have to have a ton of admiration for that organization. They've been a model of sustained excellence...without high draft picks. On the other side of the story, the 76ers have had 3 top-5 picks in the last 6 years and they suck...loudly. The TWolves not only have had 3 top-5 picks in the last 6 years, but they also traded for the aforementioned A. Wiggins. They are positively loaded with top-fivers. Maybe someday they'll get good. I'm not saying that very high draft picks aren't valuable, but selling out to get them is a sucker's strategy.
Why cherry pick with top 5? Curry and Thompson were both lottery picks, along with Barnes. Multiple years of high draft picks. That organization also had some forward thinking vision seemingly ahead of time as to how the NBA was going to transform a bit. Don't expect that from Paxson. Cavs of course had the #1 pick with James. Another #1 with Irving. A #1 pick trade to get Love and a FA acquisition to get James back (don't expect the FA move from Paxson). Spurs turned their #1 picks of Robinson and Duncan into multiple titles. Thunder have been legit contenders behind Durant and Westbrook, both very high picks. Paul Pierce was a lotto pick for the Celtics. (along with superstar trades / FA acquisitions, don't expect that from Paxson) Dwayne Wade was a lotto pick for the Heat. (along with superstar FA acquisition, don't expect that from Paxson) The lone time the Bulls made the ECFs was behind a MVP caliber year from #1 pick Derrick Rose. The suckers strategy is to think you can win a title without converting on high draft picks, unless you can attract superstar caliber free agents (Paxson hasn't in 12+ years) or pull off amazing trades for superstar talent (Paxson hasn't in 12+ years) The Bulls need high draft picks and convert them into superstars. The one thing the GarPax front office does well is draft. They probably are not going to be able to land the superstar you need without lotto picks. ------- How are the Bulls going to get the superstar that is basically required to win a title without a high draft pick? Hinrich / Gordon / Nocioni / Deng, while it may make January and February regular season hoops more fun to watch, isn't going to result in a championship. You know that now, right? Is Jimmy / Dougie / Niko / Portis going to be much different? Maybe if one of those guys becomes a legit 1A superstar. If you are cool with that as a fan, then that's fine. Its been a good business model for the Bulls the last 12+ years, that's for sure. And they had the benefit of luck with landing the #1 pick that landed Rose. That probably won't happen again.
I didn't "cherry pick" the top-5. You used the term "really high" draft picks. If you want to say that any lottery pick qualifies, then the Bulls have managed to acquire three lottery picks over the past several years while still making the playoffs in most of those seasons. Only one turned out to be a superstar, but alas, he broke. Bottom line, to win a championship you need to be smart, but you also need to be lucky. As you point out, the Bulls got very lucky with Rose. Then they got very unlucky with Rose...right after paying him a monster contract. The Bulls strategy is to be good every year and look for ways to get better. I believe that's sound thinking, which of course means it's probably what I'd do if I was in their place. Just curious. What would you do if you were in their place? What would your strategy be and what are some of the early moves you'd make to execute the plan?
It depends what the goal is. If the goal is to make a ton of money and stay employed, I would keep doing what they are doing. If the goal is to win a championship, I think the organization needs to pick between "win now" and "win later" and focus on that to start. Right now the focus is split and they are not going to be doing either very well, IMO. For instance, noone thinks they are a serious title contender this season if the goal is to "win now." They are basically 5 deep at the 4-5. A consolidation trade would be in order there, easier said than done of course. If its "win later," and given that nobody really thinks that this Bulls team is a title contender (despite Thibs being fired for not getting this roster to the Finals last season), its time to convert Gasol, Gibson, Noah, etc into "win later" assets. And they are likely going to need lottery picks or acquire that type of talent by other means, which they have shown they don't really do in 12+ seasons. But, that's not the goal. The goal is to be one of the 16 teams to make the playoffs. History has shown you need a superstar to win a championship. Given that this organization basically doesn't make trades other than salary dumps and superstar free agents don't choose to come here, that basically leaves lottery draft picks for the Bulls. The Paxson way in 12 seasons has resulted in 1 Eastern Conference Finals loss, and that was largely on the back of the lucky landing of a MVP Rose with the #1 pick in the draft. His vision has been a loser on the championships front. Or the getting to the Finals front. Or the getting to the Conference Finals more than once a decade front. If I had all the answers, I'd be working in the NBA! One thing for certain. In 12+ seasons Paxson hasn't had the answers, despite being paid handsomely. -- How do you see the Bulls winning a championship from where they are at now and how would you get them there?
I think it's disingenuous to wholeheartedly campaign for one team-building strategy or another without regard to context since they're all low probability in the end. Most teams just can't assemble the right mix of circumstances to get an elite team. The big problem with the suck-hard-to-get-draft-picks strategy is that it's also the most straight forward way to stay bad for a really long time, even if you do things the right way. There are a lot of tanking teams that, pick-by-pick, make pretty good choices year after year but still can't get it to amount to a hill of beans because player development and roster fit are really hard to forecast when you have a bunch of guys on your rookie contracts. It's the strategy that most deliberately relies on dumb luck to succeed. Being bad can also be self-reinforcing since it can scare away the best free agents........the other way to get superstars on your team. I'd be okay with a new youth movement on this team, but would feel better about it if it were targeted at specific players, and not just broad deference to the ping-pong ball gods.
I don't really care how the Bulls acquire a superstar. Free agency is fine with me. The Bulls don't do that though. Trade is fine with me. If its not a salary dump, the Bulls don't make trades like that. The other way is via lottery pick. How else are the Bulls going to get lottery picks? Or they can just hang around the middle and hope for the best. That doesn't tend to result in championships though. And I'd love to hear how the Bulls acquire the required superstar doing that. It might seem to be better to be first round and out than getting lottery picks and perhaps being bad for a while. Its just that being one of the 16 teams that make the playoffs isn't really much of an accomplishment. I'd rather the Bulls be building towards a championship. And yes, rosenthall, your points are valid regarding free agents and team culture. That's the risk. Its not like the Bulls have landed the big fish free agents using the Paxson approach either. Melo, Wade, Lebron all decided to go elsewhere. The team has not been terrible since Paxson took over from Krause. Its been over a decade. And there is only 1 trip to the Eastern Conference Finals to show for it. They do make the playoffs a lot though. And the revolving door continues. Butler replaced Deng. There are guys lined up to replace Gasol. We'll see where they end up. You never know. The Bulls have lots of average to above average talent. Are they going to consolidate it to make a short term run? Or are they just going to let the oldsters walk / salary dump and replace them with the Mirotic / Portis / McDermott crowd. Probably the latter I think, but we'll see. That's what made last season such a rare situation. The Bulls had an actual path to at least the Finals and we saw what Thibs could get out of this roster. Too bad that there was so much coach smearing going on to create such a toxic environment. And so much worry about maximizing the rookie year of Doug McDermott and pining for "Hoiball." Well, now those are not issues anymore. Paxson gets to give his locker room pep talk now and has a coach that doesn't make him feel stupid so I'm sure he's happier.
To my eyes, the whole tanking approach to building a team has been proven largely ineffectual. If you look around the NBA, there is not one single team that is trying to tank. At the beginning of this season, you could have pointed to Philly, but they've since abandoned that approach and brought in Jerry Colangelo, at the behest of the NBA nonetheless. I think it goes back to the changing way that talent is shaking out in the draft. Here's a list of players from the last six drafts that you would be interested in if you're building a team. 2010 -- George (10); Cousins (5); Wall (1); 2011 -- Leonard (15); Thompson (11); Butler (30); Irving (1); Thomas (60) 2012 -- Green (35); Davis (1); Drummond (9); Lillard (6); Middleton (39); Beal (3) 2013 -- Antetokounmpo (15); Gobert (27); Oladipo (2); Noel (6); Adams (12); 2014 -- Wiggins (1); too early. 2015 -- Towns (1); Okafor (3); Porzingis (4); Johnson (8); Turner (11); Booker (13); Portis (22); too early. You see a handful of number one picks, but outside of that, there seems to be a relatively steady stream of players from the low first round and second that you would be pretty excited about: Leonard at 15; Butler at 30; Green at 35; Thomas at 60; Middleton at 39; Gobert at 27. That list includes the best player on the Spurs, Bulls, and the second best player on GSW. The idea of tanking has so many flaws that I think fifteen years after Jerry Krause introduced it, it has all but been abandoned. Being bad doesn't guarantee you a top pick; a top pick doesn't guarantee you top talent; and its hard as heck to develop your talent when you're team is only filled with young players.
Could be. Like I said, I don't really care how the Bulls acquire a superstar. The Bulls need at least one MVP level superstar though to win a championship if history is any indication. Many of those players in that list do not fit the mold. How many of those guys do you think have a legit chance to win a MVP / be the 1A on a title winner? Your list becomes a lot smaller and those bigger parenthesized numbers go away in a hurry. Thomas, Middleton, Adams, Gobert.... those guys are not the 1As on title winning teams. A team with a core 3 of Thomas, Middleton and Gobert isn't going to do much in the playoffs. Paxson seemingly doesn't make trades other than salary dumps. Paxson can't land a superstar via free agency. Superstars that lead their teams to the Finals tend to be drafted in the lottery. How do the Bulls acquire a MVP level superstar? The Bulls have had two true contenders since I've been following the NBA. Those squads were led by Jordan and Rose. If you look at the teams that win the titles or get to the Finals, they are almost always headed up by superstar level talent. In recent years its Lebron, Curry, Wade, Duncan, Durant, Westbrook, Dirk, KG, Howard, Kobe, SHAQ. --- The Bulls are a super successful business so they don't really need a championship to thrive. Just making the playoffs makes tons and tons of money so there isn't really an incentive for the Bulls to try hard to win a championship. Hanging around in the middle, having a back stock of young guys to replace the older guys you decide you don't want to pay anymore and being good enough is a winning financial formula for this organization. --- 1st step though is to decide "win now" vs "win later." If they think Butler is a 1A and Gasol can at least be a 2 (seems like he can) then furiously trying to get at 1B or another 2 via consolidation trade would be a great move and lets go for it this year. If they choose "win later" then we don't really care about Gasol and really much of anything other than maximizing chances of winning 2+ years down the road. The Bulls are not good enough to do both, especially trying to best teams that are clearly trying to "win now" (Cavs / Warriors / Spurs / Thunder / etc)
I think your point is fair and there's a difference between tanking (trying to be bad) and aiming toward a later window. The Bulls might be better off if they shipped Rose, Gibson, Noah and Gasol for whatever picks they could land. That's different though, I think, than shipping Jimmy Butler so that you have a shot at the number one pick in the draft.
