Surprise, surprise -- it looks like Nikola Mirotic is having a decent statistical season. In terms of efficiency, he's shooting .456 from 2, .348 from 3, and .802 from the line. That works out to a solidly above average .542 TS%. I have heard a number of announcers point to Mirotic's underwhelming .395 FG% as a sign of his lack of efficiency but that is only telling part of the story. Mirotic somehow can afford to shoot that low of percentage and still score efficiently because he takes so many threes and gets fouled often. Mirotic's production numbers wise is also solid. He's putting up 16.1 pp36, 8.9 rp36, and 2.3 ap36. I also think Mirotic's defense at small forward has been quite decent, with the exception of his play against Dallas. He's now sporting a 15.2 PER. I think the sentiment around here has been that Mirotic has struggled this season. Is that because Mirotic has been inconsistent, or have we just been wrong?
Most likely it's because fans/media were hoping/expecting for progress in Mirotic's game rather than slight regress. The hoped for arc led to stardom. Not sure where the current arc leads to. Looks to me like Mirotic is working hard to fill the Dunleavy void at (starting) SF and doing a respectable job of it. This is very important for the team at this point. I believe that he's a better shooter than he's shown so far in his NBA career.
People were gushing about him so last season. The story was he was being held back by Thibs and under Hoiball he would be freed. Well, he has currently has a PER of 15.1, down from 17.9 last season. His TS% is down to 53.9% from 55.6% last season. He's shooting the three better but getting to the line way less. (4.0 FTA per 36 vs 6.2 FTA per 36). He still looks basically like VladRad++ to me. A solid NBA player to this point, but not a guy to really be building around. He can improve though. Its nice to see the 3 point shooting improve since that will be a critical aspect to his game. 34.5% is far from elite though. Portis might be better than him at age 20 vs Mirotic at 24.
Even after the carnage last year, I still like Niko better long term over the full arc of his career as a small forward, rather than a power forward. I think he's quick enough, and can develop his wing skills and then be a match up nightmare against smaller opponents. At power forward, he's always going to be a little smaller than you want. I also think having him and Gasol, Butler and Taj (and maybe even Rose) on the court at the same time gives the Bulls a large rebounding advantage. That injury to Dunleavy may prove to not be the horror that it often appears to be.
Shooting threes at a 34.5% clip is not ideal but I'm not sure about your far from elite characterization. I thought your post about the Warriors was interesting the other day. I think you showed that we have to conceptualize three point shooting in two dimensions when evaluating players. Doug McDermott's 3 point shots go in regularly but you can't characterize him as an elite three point shooter because he just is not able to put up enough volume. The real elite guys -- Steph Curry and Klay Thompson -- shoot both efficiently and with high volume. Using this rubric, I think if Mirotic were to up his 3pt shooting to 40% he might be elite, even if there are numerous other guys in the league who hit with more efficiency.
The 6-10 part of his 6-10 220 is easily OK for a PF. As much as his lack of bulk might be a disadvantage at PF, his lack of "quick twitch" athleticism might be a disadvantage at SF. In any case, Mirotic at SF is working, as is Gibson at starting PF and Portis as a 20+mpg regular rotation player. The team sits at #4 in defensive rating, and after spending most of the first 20 or so games of this season at the bottom of the league in offensive rating, their offense has been very good over the past couple weeks. Not sure if this is just a hot streak or if this team is indeed coming together. I think I'll go with the latter. Edit: I mentioned Mirotic's lack of "quick twitch." It should be noted that this attribute isn't a deal-breaker at SF. Larry Bird managed pretty well without it.
I think this is pretty fair. I think if Niko's outside shooting doesn't get better he'll probably muddle around where he's at right now in the NBA: a 15-18 PER high calibre role player who's nice to have but not unbearable to lose. If he can get his shooting to 40% without reducing volume it ought to open up his game and make him borderline All-Star.
I think his play has honest to god been up and down this year. He started the year off great, then stunk to high heaven for about 15 games and his play has been ticking up since he went back in the starting lineup as a SF. If he sticks with it I'm inclined to keep him there for the year. We're inching towards that point in the season when you have to decide what your rotations are going to be, and Niko's shown more than either Doug or Tony and god only knows what Dunleavy will be able to do when (if) he gets back. To be honest I'm surprised his stint at SF has gone as well as it has. It struck me as a desperate Anything-But-Tony-Snell heave from Hoiberg that's lucked out. He looks more comfortable in the position this year than last.
Okay, having run some numbers, this is Mirotic since he's been starting at SF: Per 36: 15.4 pts, 8 reb, 2.2 ast, 59.2 TS%, +11 Net Rtg, which is the highest on the team. So it's working out pretty well. He's still not getting to the line like he was last year, but the jumbo lineup is paying dividends so far.
Hmm. Yeah, those are more than respectable for a 4th offensive option. It's a godsend given the iffiness of Dunleavy's status.
If he can maintain this level of play I wouldn't be surprised if Dunleavy gets sandbagged for the entire year. I think it's a big adjustment to introduce a non-essential guy into your rotation late in the year, especially if the guys ahead of him are playing well.
Dunleavy is kind of the ultimate complementary player. If he's healthy enough to play, I'm sure that they'll want him to play. Of course, that doesn't necessarily mean start or play big minutes. But first he's gotta get well and that's not a given.
Those kind of numbers would make him an allstar. They hit me as too good to be true -- like the numbers in themselves suggest that this is not a long term thing. Even while he was on Real Madrid, Mirotic was susceptible to these prolonged boom and bust streaks. It's probably more of the same. Mirotic was a beast against Atlanta. I have a feeling that his defensive contributions are actually much larger than they seem. When he gets beat its usually on a noticeable blow by, while the fact that opposing forwards are having a tough time getting their shots is less memorable; that, and many of Mirotic's defensive rebounds come against opposing bigs who are left open on switches. Those would be easy second chance points against a small forward who doesn't hold his position as well.
Niko is playing great the last couple weeks. If the three point shot is falling, he's deadly. 47% for the 5 games in JAN so far. I was reading on some message board somewhere on the interwebs some posts from guys that followed him when he played in Spain. The subject had to do with Mirotic being so good for a stretch last season and wondering where that Niko went. They seemed to indicate he was that kind of player in Spain as well. All world for a spell and then suddenly not so much anymore. AKA streaky. That being said, its nice to see he had the excellent play still in him. I'd rather streaky than bad. The Bulls need someone to emerge as the 3rd guy in our Big 3 that starts with Butler and Gasol. The candidates are pretty much Rose and Niko at this point. The nice thing about Dunleavy is that if he plays like he did last year he's a great 3 point shooter. If Niko can get closer to 40% consistently he'll be a real asset and probably the 3rd best player on the team, if he isn't already.
That was how I remembered it. I always thought that Mirotic was injured when he went through a weak stretch but it seems like it could just be his approach. FWIW, he was on fire for one entire Copa Del Rey run, so it isn't necessarily a regular season thing. I think the biggest problem with Mirotic's shooting struggles is that they also seem to impact his activity level. I think you could deal with long cold stretches if his rebounding was more consistent. He's knida' like Snell in that respect.
