The bolded section is the portion with which I take issue. Yes, if you operate under the assumption that the only way for this rebuild to be successful involves a 2015 1st round pick, then your conclusion is valid. However, not all of us share that assumption.
In response to the bolded part: It's win/win! Either he takes us to the next level or we improve our chances at Simmons! As for the first question: DMC plays PF and Plumlee plays C. Davis plays back-up.
Well, it IS a 2016 pick. And with our location, it's really hard to think we can build through the FA.
You don't get it. We owe Denver our first round pick if we make the playoffs this season. So you're talking about the difference between a lotto pick and no pick at all. Next year the protections turn our owed selection into a second rounder.
Touché. And I wouldn't be looking to build through FA; I'd be looking to supplement. And I'd be looking to supplement via trade. And I'd be looking to build via internal development, which I'd assume is occurring if the team becomes good enough to make the playoffs. Look, if we duplicate our first half record and finish with 32-34 wins, then we'll be in the lottery, and we'll need it. If we see improved cohesion defensively, continued growth from Crabbe, Harkless and (hopefully) Vonleh, and perhaps a return of Plumlee's ability to finish inside, and we play well enough to finish with, say, 38 wins, that will mean that we were above .500 over the second half of the season, with a schedule that, statistically, is supposed to be more difficult than that we played in the first half. If that occurs, I'm going to believe that we're better off--even without adding the #8 pick.
Oh, so it's worse than I thought. Anyway the point stands that this team probably doesn't want to make the playoffs this year.
Assume we win tonight (you know, worst-case scenario). Then, further assume that we (horrifically) get the 8 seed, finishing with a record of, say, 40-42. That will mean that over the final 94 days of the season, we went 25-18, a .581 clip, equivalent to a 48-win season. With the amount of youth and inexperience on this team, would you really be pessimistic about their future after that kind of a finish to the season?
This team doesn't have enough talent to compete with the Warriors, so while winning a few more games here or there might give us warm fuzzy feelings, losing out on the potential a lotto pick represents (for a GM that has shown he is pretty at the draft) makes me think it would be one step forward and two steps back. A tactical win and a strategic loss. This team is in no position to win anything of significance (i.e. getting to the conference finals) as currently constructed and is realistically two to three years away if everything breaks right. Unfortunately getting to the playoffs this year probably sets that timeline back.
That's what I'm trying to say. The worst thing that could have happened to this team would have been to come out gangbusters over the first half of the season. That didn't happen. Being 8 games under .500 right now means that we will either get the lottery pick you all desire, or actually play like a playoff team over the second half of the season. Either outcome is positive.
I'm not so sure about that. Word gets around in the league and many players make friends with team mates and then go off to play somewhere else, but still keep some form of contact. You should give a listen to Woj's podcast if you haven't already. He talks about the Mo Williams trade and how he spent 40 hours of phone time with Williams' agent, before finally agreeing on the contract. Olshey gave Williams a short stop on a promising team in the hopes that the next season he would have more interest. It didn't work out immediately but in the long run it did as he is now in Cleveland looking to win a ring with the King. He then went on to talk about how its hard to get away with not being respectful to everyone around the league today. With social media things travel fast, and Olshey understanding that makes sure that he conducts his business in a respectful manner. The point that I am trying to make is that while Portland is a small market, Olshey has made a reputation for himself as a truthful businessman who won't try to oversell his clients. I think we have a little bit more pull in free agency than people think. It's easy to assume it will be hard or impossible for us to rebuild in FA, especially after seeing somebody like Monroe passing up on us for the Bucks. But at the end of the day any Agent worth their payroll will look at Olsheys track record (especially here in Portland) and realize hes telling the truth when he says this is a good place for their client. It's certainly a players system here in Portland, and you cannot say that about every franchise in the NBA.
There's no move that Olshey can make that will make the Warriors, Spurs & Cavs worse over the next 2-3 years. I agree that the odds of even playing in a WCF during that time span are pretty long. That said, it's never a straight jump to being in the position to play at that level. Teams generally have to learn what playoff basketball is about before they can jump to the next level. Even getting bounced in 4 straight to the Warriors would have the benefit of getting the keepers on our team playoff experience. A lottery pick this season would be nice, and it's likely that will be the outcome. But no matter who we draft, it's going to be 2-3 years before they're ready to contribute much. The way I see it, this discussion is strictly for message boards. Players worth a damn play to win. Let Olshey figure out the best path for management to take once he sees where the team is at come the trade deadline.
You are rightous! I am a Ravens forum member and those junkman tank all day long except for the ones like me who give the finger its rightful place up a dark spot.
If we win but are not doing it at the expense of giving young guys minutes, I have no problem with it.
I know 'likes' aren't everything but the comment saying it would be an unmitigated disaster has 6 likes, which I would take to mean those people agree. And I've definitely seen more than one or two people express that opinion.
I want dame and the boys to go out there and play to win and I enjoy it when they succeed cause Im a fan and I love my blazers that being said making the playoffs would be disastrous for our future. We need a good draft pick. WE REALLY NEED a good draft pick. it cannot be said enough NEED NEED NEED. Its the only way for this squad to get anywhere significant in the next 5 years. development will come but the talent is simply not there to say making the playoffs would be a good experience. The important players have been already to the playoffs and got bounced in the first round last year more than anything we NEED more young talent.
I want to win the most games possible....in the long run, not just a few meaningless wins this season. So if looking at the long term results and trying to get to the highest point is a bad thing, then I'm guilty. What does 35-40 wins get us this year? What would 25-30 wins get us this year? How would the results of those to achievements mean to this franchise going forward since FA'cy and players forcing their way to Portland hasn't really been a stampede? Olshey has done a very solid job drafting and that is where I believe the long-term success for this franchise will come from. It doesn't mean I'm rooting for losses but that I am willing to take a little punishment now for long term reward later. If that means we lose a few more games now but have a higher total of wins in the next 5 years, I'm all for it.
The Bulls sucked hard for several years and got early lotto picks. They drafted Eddy Curry at #4, Tyson Chandler #2, Marcus Fizer at #4, Jay Williams at #2, traded #2 LMA for #4 Tyrus Thomas. They won 33 games, missed the playoffs and the ping pong ball gods gave the a miracle #1 and DRose. Rose won his MVP in year 3. While making the playoffs, they drafted Noah #9 in trade for Curry, Taj Gibson #29, Jimmy Butler #30, traded two 1sts in a deep draft for #11 Doug McDermott, Bobby Portis at #22. Draft day trade for Mirotic. Signed FA Pau Gasol for <$8M. 50 win team. Never tanked for the lotto pick. If they did, why a Rose instead of an Eddy Curry? Rose wasn't a sure thing... No doubt you try to win, make good picks at whatever draft position, build solid trade chips from those picks, and you can acquire good players and picks. Just win.
