If we go 15-26 over the final 41 to match your prediction, then we'll be in the lottery, and we'll need it. However, I expect we'll be significantly better than that. Looking through the schedule, I think we'll win 20-25 of our final 41. As far as contenders are concerned--the Spurs at this point are Kawhi, Lamarcus, and a bunch of role players. OKC is Durant, Westbrook, and a bunch of role players. Not every contender is going to have a "big three". We just need better role players, or for our current role players to be better. And comparing to last season, it's arguable that our bench is as much better than last season's as our PF is worse than last season's. But there are so many areas that this team can improve internally that you'd have to be blind not to see them. Vonleh can become more aggressive in the post. Meyers can become more aggressive from the perimeter. Plumlee and Lillard can both improve their finishing at the rim. Aminu can improve his team defense, and reduce his ball-handling attempts. The team as a whole can cut down on turnovers via stupid/lazy passes. Think--if just half of those things improve incrementally, how much better will this team be? And that's without adding any FA's this summer, or making a consolidating trade for a "#3 scorer", or any of our super-inexperienced youngsters breaking out--all legitimate possibilities as well. I mean really--is it that far-fetched to consider that this team can become a contender without a top draft pick? I've said it so many times--we are absolutely in a better spot now than we were 3 years ago, and I absolutely believe we were a contender last year before Wes went down. Neil built that team without a top-5 pick; I fully believe he can do it again.
So we're counting on Vonleh, Alexander, Montero and Connaughton to improve enough that we're a contender? I don't really think that's what you're saying, I'm just being difficult. But I really don't see internal improvement getting this team past the 1st round ever.
As I see it, it's never been a tank or bust situation for Olshey. It's more of a coming to a forked path and having to choose between riding out the season with this roster and looking for help in the form of a lottery draft pick or instead making an in-season trade using cap space in the form of an unbalanced trade that will bring help this season. He's got between now and the Feb. 18th trade deadline to decide which way to go. After last night's win, the Blazers stand at 17 and 24, 1.5 games behind the Jazz for the last playoff spot. They have a very advantageous schedule between now and the deadline: 13 games, 8 home vs. 5 away, and only 5 against teams with winning records. They could very easily go 10-3 in that stretch and end up 27-27 at the deadline and hold the 7th or 8th seed. If that happens, I'd expect Olshey to commit fully to improving the team's chances for this season by making a trade deadline deal. On the other hand, if the Blazers are out of the playoffs by that date, I think he'll hold off making any move unless a real blockbuster becomes available and you'll see the team begin to rest guys with minor injuries, etc. in order to improve the team's draft position. I admire the fact that the players are fully committed to winning now. Let the team's play determine which path Olshey chooses.
True but he built the team around LaMarcus, an All-Star and possibly the best power forward in the game for a couple years there. LA had a lot of flaws, but he could be unstoppable when he wanted to be. You listed OKC and San Antonio, but right now I'm not sure if there's a player on our roster as good as Westbrook, not even mentioning Durant. I don't think San Antonio is going to go as far as some people think because I think a core of LA/Kawhi isn't as strong as Durant/Westbrook or Curry/Klay/Draymond. is Dame/CJ really comparable to any of those combos though?
I think CJ could be a nice third guy, like Wes, but I still think we need that second star player to really be considered a contender. I've never bought into the "big three" idea, but I think you have to have a "big two" and I'm not sure if CJ can be one of those two.
Dude, that's not just a negative wave, it's a negative tsunami. Curry ain't God (His godson and a choirboy maybe, but he's not infallible). Every year is a new shot. I can absolutely guarantee you that, with the exception of a very few, very hardcore pundits, nobody but nobody saw us winning the championship in '77. Nobody! Walton was always special but he was injury prone and moody. We had a team load of new players, a new coach and we were in the same conference as a kickass Laker team (excuse me for a moment while I go vomit. That was a tough admission for me.....). Plus, the 76ers were the new dynasty that was gonna revolutionize the NBA and give the Celtics dynasty a run. We all know what happened. Sometimes it's shit, sometimes it's serendipity. Fortunately we got the latter before the former kicked us in the ass. Point is, never ever say never....or "later" The only time there is no hope is when you give up hope. I get the "lets try and have fun" part. That's a survival technique. But there are just too many variables (injuries, rule changes, coaching strategies, etc) at play to just give up and roll with it. Now go back to bed and get up on the other side with a smile on your face. We've never backed down from the Lakers and we're damn sure not going to back down from the late to the party, new league darlings, pussy Warriors. Every year is a new page. And we have yet to turn this one...and please don't ever piss in my morning Cheerios again.....
It's tough to gauge if Portland is over performing or if much of the West is in decline so we don't look so bad by comparison. In a 'normal' West year, this isn't even an issue but because other teams are so much worse, somehow being in a playoff discussion makes us better? Not sure that is the case. There is a difference between having a bunch of young players and having a potential young Star/Superstar player. Ben Simmons IS a difference maker and Ingram could be as well. Who knows what Dragan Bender brings but I guarantee NO ONE thought Porzingis would have this much of an impact on the big stage of New York last year. Add someone of that ability to Dame/CJ where the pressure to carry the team is removed and you have a situation where they can really flourish. Portland will be good enough next year to make the Playoffs....this year is there one chance for a while.
Of those you list and Vonleh, only Vonleh has any sort of pedigree and realistic chance of turning into a reliable starter. I'd be surprised if those three were even on the roster or in the NBA by the time their contracts expire.
I was using the tanker's mentality against them. "Oh, let's get into the lotto now because we'll get crushed by the Warriors" - Fuck that noise. Play hard, get as high as you can. Otherwise we're just waiting for our time that will never come. My wife and I waited until we were "ready" before having our son. Trouble was, her father died before our son turned 3, so he'll never remember his grandpa. In hindsight, we both regret waiting so long. We wish we could have pushed harder in our life instead of waiting until "our time". I'm actually against everything I wrote; I thought it was obvious, but my head is quite a jumble so not everything makes it out clearly.
Alexander (for one) had a higher pedigree than Vonleh coming into College. He should have stayed more time of course but a pesky NCAA investigation got in his way.
There's a third option: Yes, there's been a drop-off in the bottom tier of the West bracket, but the Blazers may just be better than we thought. CJ has developed faster than expected and Crabbe has developed into both an offensive and defensive force. We could use a stud frontcourt player, but Plumlee and Davis have been solid and Aminu, Henderson, Leonard and even Harkless can have games where they are significant contributors. I have no idea why you bring up Simmons and Ingram as realistic options for the Blazers. Barring some pretty long ping pong ball odds, there's no way those guys are on the board when the Blazers draft.
We have zero There are other guys worth having in this draft. This team has a talent problem, this is the easiest and least expensive option (both in terms of opportunity cost and real dollars).
I'm not talking about High School pedigree, I'm talking about expectations based on whatever performance it was that lead a guy to getting (or not getting) drafted by an NBA team. Alexander had a rough, injury plagued season at Kansas and while it's possible he might blossom in the NBA, that's probably not the way to bet.
Of course there are, but not many are likely to be the difference makers that we're looking for; at least in a 2-3 year time frame.
