CJ's third year is a mirror image of Lillard's second

I'm probably one of the few people who think CJ may wind up being the better player in our back court in a couple of years. Although CJ is technically in his third year, he was so little used in his first two years that I think it's a pretty fair comparison to take a look at how he's doing now vs Lillard in his second season. It's ludicrous how similar the stats are. CJ shoots a higher percentage and DL gets more free throws and assists, but otherwise....

CJ's a pretty special player, and he's only going to get better.

 

Given that Lillard was an All Star with those stats, I guess we know who the real snub was this year.

 

Looking over real plus minus (RPM) stats and on/off court stats this morning I was thinking the same thing. In particular CJ's defensive analytics are much higher. He rates superior to Hendo and Crabbe on defense. Offensively he has a number of higher percentages than Dame; although Dame has clearly been superior on that end with the eye test and raw stats. It's remarkable with Dame playing at an MVP level CJ has potential to exceed him in so many areas. Here are some on court off court numbers:

CJ on court offensive rating per 100 possessions (ORTG) is 108.2. With him off court the team is 107.2 for a net of +1.0
Dame on ORTG 110.3 off 103.1 net of +7.2
CJ DRTG 105.8 off 109.7 net -3.9 (great)
Dame DRTG 108.3 off 104.1 +4.2 (terrible)

Total those up and lineups with CJ on the floor outscore opponents by 5.0 points per 100 possessions. With Dame we only outscore opponents by 3.0.

CJ offensive RPM is 9th of 95 among NBA SG's - (91st percentile)
Dame offensive RPM 5/82 - (94%)
CJ defensive RPM 27/95 - (72%)
Dame defensive RPM 72/82 - (12%) OUCH!
CJ total RPM 7/95 - (93%)
Dame total RPM 11/82 - (87%)

So there is an arugment despite Damian's insane season CJ has actually been the more valuable player. I would disagree with that; but with CJ being a year younger and having basically two less years of starters minutes? We have a hell of a future with our backcourt.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/POR/2016/on-off/
http://espn.go.com/nba/statistics/rpm/_/sort/RPM

 

People seriously need to stop looking at RPM.

 

I don't disagree, but what should we be looking at instead?

 

Stats that make the formula public would be an immediate upgrade.

 

Really? The first reply doesn't have a picture of a semi-naked woman in it?

This place is losing a step.

 

Had to find the right girl man!!

 

A USC fan is "the right girl!?!"

 

You know, I didnt eve nthink about that! lol. I was just going for the hottest I could find.

Ill take your quacker any time though!

Edit: WAIT!!! umm... that didn't sound right.... never mind...

 

How does that take into account their overlapping play? I assume it doesn't, so to rephrase the question, how would you account for their +/- per 100 possession stats both when they're on the floor together and when it's one or the other? Even the latter would be tricky, because CJ gets a lot of his "solo" minutes against reserves.

 

I don't think there's any chance CJ ends up better than Damian. I wouldn't mind being wrong though.

 

It doesn't differentiate between CJ playing with or without Dame. CJ's on court numbers are for the 2134 minutes he's played and the off court are the 905 minutes he hasn't.

This link shows the lineup details for the various 5 man units.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/POR/2016/lineups/

 

I find it very interesting. I'm sure others do as well. If you have something better I'd rather you contribute it than criticizing what I post. There are advantages and disadvantages to every stat.

 

How is that being critical of your post? I didn't even quote your post. I don't really care for the stat, and I'm making a statement in general that I wish people wouldn't use it. I've seen it cited quite a bit lately, but as others have pointed out, we don't even really know how they calculate it.

 

over the next few years a lot of different statistical measurements will be coming out that factor in player movement, lineups, chemistry (yes- chemistry) - things that cannot as of yet be captured- as that starts to evolve these junk stats that ESPN throws out will be a laughingstock. No stat - as of yet accurately quantifies a players true contribution- however with machine learning and the capacity to to analyze levels of data that were never available until now- we may actually be able to see something develop that can quantify these things conceptually.

 

One of many reasons my alma mater will always be better than Oregon

 

Now that the season is virtually over, I thought it'd be worth looking at the stats again. If anything, CJ has gained ground.

In the 5 games in April he's at 24ppg, .563 3pt%, .525 fg%. So he's in a really nice groove entering the playoffs.