Blazers 41-37 (Updated) BOS - a must win to have a chance at #5. Payback due as well. (Win 116-109) MIA - opponent b2b 3in4 - should be a win against a tired, road weary MIA squad. (Win 110-93) Wade out, 3 games in 4 nights...inevitable. @GS - b2b - Loss. GS going for a historical record with Portland on a b2b. I would almost go 'Pop' and rest the starters that game. .......(Loss 136-111) Didn't rest anyone and still got blown out by 25. Now they are facing must win games to keep DAL and UTA at bay. @SAC 3in4 - Another 'must win' game even though POR struggles there. Possibly depends on who is in the lineup for SAC OKC - b2b 4in5 opponent b2b 3in4 - Have to win your home games. Both teams will be tired. It's why I think POR should rest against GS. MIN - Win...it's MIN DEN - Win...better be a win. That gives POR a 45-37 record but I'm not sure I see them going 6-1 down the stretch so with wiggle room, 44-38. Memphis 41-36 (Updated) TOR - Loss. Raptors still chasing CLE. Glad this game isn't any later in the season when it might be a lost cause. (Loss 99-95) Impressed it was that close. @ORL - Magic out of the Playoffs so it's about how MEM plays. Should be a win. (Loss 119-107) MEM just doesn't have the bodies....reeling. CHI - Battle of the injured lineups. Pick 'em game. @DAL - Loss. Mavs fighting for that last Playoff spot at home. GS - b2b - Loss. Warriors on their quest helps us when it hurt us a few days earlier. @LAC - Clippers likely in a 'no-win' scenario and may rest their starters. Pick 'em @GS - b2b Should be a loss but GS may have the record wrapped up by then and might sit starters against a hungry MEM team. With the expected GS loss, Portland is still only 1/2 game behind MEM for 5th but it's more now about staying ahead of DAL and UTA who both have only 1 more loss than the Blazers.
The fivethrityeight.com robots have Memphis winning one more game the rest of the way (probably vs CHI) to go 42-40. They have Portland going 3-1 (with the most likely loss against OKC) to go 44-38. The best news in all of this is the rest we'll get before the last two games (2 days, then 3 days). That'll help A LOT heading into the playoffs.
I'm going to assume we can win the last two home games with rest against tanking teams packing for their summer in Minny and Denver. So the schedule really comes down to our next two games against Sacramento and OKC. If we lose the next two I'd say its still likely we end up with the 5th seed. It would be a nail biting scrape to the finish though. We'd need our opponents to finish with the following or worse; Jazz 4-1 Grizz 2-3 Mavs 3-2* (possibly 4-1 as we could win 3 way tie with Jazz) Rockets 4-1Remember though; the Mavs play both the Rockets and Jazz so there are a guaranteed 2 losses to one of those teams. We only need two more losses somewhere out of those three teams. I don't see how the Grizz finish better than 2-3; they might be worse than the 6ers right now and play the Warriors twice. If we win one of Sac or OKC then we almost for sure will lock up the 5th seed. It wouldn't matter what the Jazz or Rockets do. We'd need our opponents to finish with the following or worse: Grizz 3-2 Mavs 4-1 If we can win both the Sac and OKC games; then we likely have a shot of officially securing the 5th seed on Apr9th with Minnesota. That then gives us a practice game to finish the regular season and an entire week to gameplan exclusively for the Clippers. Go Blazers!
http://www.playoffstatus.com/nba/trailblazersstandings.html 72% chance at #5 20% at 6 6% at 7 2% at 8 1% out of playoffs Magic # for playoffs is 1 win + 1 HOU loss.
Our Blazers are down to only 3 games left. To get the 5th seed the below record or worse are what we need from our opponents. If we win all 3; MEM 3-1 If we win 2 of 3; MEM 2-2 DAL 4-1 If we only win 1 games; MEM 1-3 DAL 3-2 HOU 4-1 What I'm going to root for is Houston to beat Dallas tomorrow, Dallas to beat Memphis on Friday, then Golden State to beat Memphis on Saturday. If we win tomorrow that will give us a chance to clinch the 5th seed Saturday night against Minnesota a full week before the playoffs begin. Go Blazers!
Blazers 42-37 (Updated) BOS - a must win to have a chance at #5. Payback due as well. (Win 116-109) MIA - opponent b2b 3in4 - should be a win against a tired, road weary MIA squad. (Win 110-93) Wade out, 3 games in 4 nights...inevitable. @GS - b2b - Loss. GS going for a historical record with Portland on a b2b. I would almost go 'Pop' and rest the starters that game. .......(Loss 136-111) Didn't rest anyone and still got blown out by 25. Now they are facing must win games to keep DAL and UTA at bay. @SAC 3in4 - Another 'must win' game even though POR struggles there. Possibly depends on who is in the lineup for SAC. (Win 115-107) ........SAC sat Gay, Belinelli, Collison, Koufos and Casspi and Harkless went nuts. OKC - b2b 4in5 opponent b2b 3in4 - Have to win your home games. Both teams will be tired. It's why I think POR should rest against GS. OKC may sit... ......players as they have clinched #3 and would probably rather play MEM than POR anyhow. MIN - Win...it's MIN DEN - Win...better be a win. That gives POR a 45-37 record but I'm not sure I see them going 6-1 down the stretch so with wiggle room, 44-38. Memphis 42-36 (Updated) TOR - Loss. Raptors still chasing CLE. Glad this game isn't any later in the season when it might be a lost cause. (Loss 99-95) Impressed it was that close. @ORL - Magic out of the Playoffs so it's about how MEM plays. Should be a win. (Loss 119-107) MEM just doesn't have the bodies....reeling. CHI - Battle of the injured lineups. Pick 'em game. (Win 108-92) Chicago just didn't show up. @DAL - Loss. Mavs fighting for that last Playoff spot at home. GS - b2b - Loss. Warriors on their quest helps us when it hurt us a few days earlier. @LAC - Clippers likely in a 'no-win' scenario and may rest their starters. May rest starters to help MEM so they can play them in the Playoffs. @GS - b2b Should be a loss but GS may have the record wrapped up by then and might sit starters against a hungry MEM team. Now you get into some of the games where teams start sitting players for rest or Playoff positioning. No reason for OKC to play Durant or Westbrook as it's their 3 game in 4 nights, they have clinched the #3 spot and by allowing Portland to win, they have a better chance of playing MEM in the Playoffs and moving the Blazers to the Clippers. Clippers may do the same thing when playing MEM so they can get them instead of POR in the Playoffs.
I love this stuff. 1. We win -- we clinch a spot for the playoffs regardless of what happens in HOU/DAL game. 2. DAL beat HOU tonight and we win -- we can not only clinch playoffs, but finish no worse than 7
I'm pretty sure the Blazers own the tiebreaker against Houston by having a better conference record. 27-22 vs 25-22 right now. Of course that can all change between now and the end of the season but as of now the Blazers own the tiebreak.
I know what you mean, but how is this. Houston makes the #8 spot thereby losing their Draft pick. Then they upset the Warriors and the Blazers manage to beat the Clips. Then Portland dismisses Houston AGAIN from the Playoffs and sends them home in shame with no Draft pick, no Clutch City, no Warriors shimmy dancing.....and Portland is in the WCF against the Spurs. Damn...what was in that drink?
If the Blazers and Rockets end up with the same record it's mathematically impossible for us to have the same or better conference record. We'd have more losses the rest of the season than them. There isn't any scenario where we can win a tiebreaker with them in a two way tie. The conference records if we are not tied is irrelevant.
sounds OK, but How about this: We get 5th seed, beat Clips. SA gets Utah and loses in 1st round. Lillard gets farther in the playoffs than LMA! Houston resigns Howard to 5-year supermax deal!
2 games left. To get the 5th seed we need the following; If we win both: 1 Memphis loss If we win one and lose one: 2 Memphis losses 1 Dallas loss If we lose both: 3 Memphis losses 2 Dallas losses We will officially finish above that Houston shit show. I don't think Utah can beat us in any tiebreakers either; so we have at least the 7th seed. If we take care of business Saturday with Minnesota could wrap up the 5th seed as early as Sunday; although if the teams we need to lose don't lose that night then most likely it'll be clinched on Monday or Tuesday and we'll have a meaningless practice game to end the year. Go Blazers!
Talkin' Ball talking about just what we've been talking about here. Taking better shots to get going and then take the tougher ones when you are in rhythm and have more of a flow. It's almost like some people read this thread.....
