Now that we're officially disqualified from the playoffs it's a good time to ponder different offseason plans. Here's what I think so far: 1). I would not try and put humpty dumpty back together again this offseason. This team is too far removed from being relevant to do it with this year's weak FA class and modest cap space. Best to plan for a 2 summer rebuild. I'm not even sure Harrison Barnes or something similar would even get us back into the playoffs. 2). Make decisions about who should stay among Taj, Doug, Niko and Portis. They don't all fit together on the same roster and at least one of Niko and Taj is probably going next offseason anyways. So cut bait with a few of them to get roster flexibility while they have value. I like the idea of using one of them as a piece to trade up in the draft if there's a player we like. Best to make moves to maximize our chances of pairing a second star with Jimmy Butler. 3). 2017 is the offseason to plan for big moves. More valuable players, cap space is less abundant, we'll have time to collect 2 draft picks and have a better chance to get the necessary talent around Jimmy to make a run with him as our best player. 4). Don't trade Jimmy. The odds are better that we'll be able to get a second player to play alongside him than to get someone better than him. If we nuked everything it could very well take 5+ years to get someone better than Jimmy. The fact that he's on a great contract makes it an easier choice. Make a play for the offseason of 2017.....we should have prime Jimmy with 3 more years on his contract, useful role players on rookie contracts and the possibility of a 2nd max player to make ourselves relevant. 5). Search for more E'Twauns this offseason. The top of this FA draft class is toxic. Way more cap space than good players to use it on. I'd identify below-the-radar 2-way guys and target them the minute the FA bell rings to maximize our chances of signing them on good deals. Take a chance on guys in return for below market 2-year deals with team options for the third. Sign guys knowing that they might be a bit over their head this year, but would be good fits with high usage stars that we'll add in 2017. 6). Derrick stays. Not because I want him to, but because we have no other options. Go into trade checker and try and make a reasonable deal to see what I mean. 7). Trade Dunleavy for just about anything. An open roster spot, extra cap space and some monetary considerations would be more valuable than having him around......he no longer fits.
The rebuild needs to start with management. Thibs was a great hire. He brought a championship culture to this organization from the Celtics and showed time and time again an uncanny ability to get the most out of whatever talent he was given. Hoiberg looks to be an average at best coach based on his rookie campaign. GarPax without Thibs look to be inept. Paxson has been collecting paychecks now for a decade and a half with one Thibs run to the ECFs as his lone real success. The Bulls currently exist in the miserable NBA middle. As an organization, they are content to stay there since making the playoffs is the goal (not winning titles). Everyone keeps their job and the team fills the arena this way. Rising out of the miserable NBA middle is a tough, tough slog. Have to get very lucky on a middle draft pick, get a top FA to come here or pull off a great trade. Paxson doesn't really do the last two. Gasol was the bright spot FA wise, but many feel he's "part of the problem" and are happy to see his minutes go to a guy like Portis. That's kind of funny to me, but whatever. And Gasol came here at a discount to make a run at a title. With Thibs gone, that sales pitch is gone. Fire Gar. Fire Pax. Blow it up. If you are going to tank a couple seasons, Hoiberg is fine for that. Who cares, and maybe he'll get a bunch of d leaguers and lotto picks to play somewhat hard. Fire him after 1.5 seasons or if your dream coaching candidate becomes available. Find a sharp, modern basketball mind from outside the organization (not a Reinsdorf crony) and let him or her remake the Bulls. Butler will be the tough one. If you go all-out tank and you can get a couple high lotto picks out of him, then do it. Get out of the miserable NBA middle, one way or the other.
Ross had a negative value over replacement. His numbers when paired with Butler are scary bad. I agree that trading Rose is very problematic. I'm just not sure any real progress can be made if Rose is on the roster.
In many ways I find Rose the least interesting part of the rebuilding process. His trade value is nil, he's not an impact player anymore, and despite his lackadasaical play I don't get the impression he's a disruption for the team or its young players. So worst case you soldier on with him for one more uneventful year before he walks as a FA, which doesn't really change the trajectory of anything. That's better than taking on long term salary to unload him. It's also the most likely scenario. It's much more interesting (and difficult) to think about what to do with the guys that have actual contractual value. We know they don't fit together, so it puts the onus on GarPax to transform the team's assets into something more valuable.
Also, for people who want to trade Jimmy Butler, you have to think about the odds of winning that trade vs. the alternative of keeping him. Consider the top 7 draft picks for the last 5 years. They look like this: 2015 Karl Anthony Towns D'Angelo Russell Jahlil Okafor Kristaps Porzingis Mario Hezonja Willie Cauley-Stein Emmanuel Mudiay 2014 Andrew Wiggins Jabari Parker Joel Embiid Aaron Gordon Dante Exum Marcus Smart Julius Randle 2013 Anthony Bennett Victor Oladipo Otto Porter Cody Zeller Alex Len Nerlens Noel Ben McLemore 2012 Anthony Davis Michael Kidd-Gilchrist Bradley Beal Dion Waiters Thomas Robinson Damian Lilliard Harrison Barnes 2011 Kyrie Irving Derrick Williams Enes Kanter Tristan Thompson Jonas Valunciunas Jan Vesely Bismack Biyombo That's 35 players. There are two guys on that list I'd feel comfortable trading Jimmy Butler for right now (KAT, Brow), two that I'd think about (Lilliard, Kristaps) and the rest aren't even close, with quite a few of them being downright yucky. As a rebuilding strategy I'd think you have much better odds keeping Jimmy around and finding a good player to pair with him than replacing him outright.
A lot of those guys are in the playoffs. Some look likely to go to the Finals. I'd be looking toward Floyd 2.0's expiration date vs next year...
FWIW, I wanted Rodney Hood and Gary Harris with our 2 first round picks. We used them for one guy who is difficult to give serious minutes to. I would have played Jimmy at SF. It was a remarkable opportunity to infuse youth at the wings on a team that needs wings still. That is how a team can compete and rebuild at the same time.
What would do if I was GM? I would get rid of Brooks, Bairstow, Snell. I would trade Dunleavy. Trade him for anything, He is our starting SF and does nothing for the team. His age is a factor. Do I trade Jimmy? Only if the trade makes us better. Paxson and Gar both did not say they would trade him, nor did they say they would not. They let the league know it will cost you if you want him. That being said he should still be with the Bulls next season. He is our best player at both ends of the floor. And as John mentioned he needs to lead by example on the court and not so much voicing his opinion publicly about coaches and the team in general. It is obvious they will not resign Gasol. Nothing was said about sitting down and talking to him this off season. They mention Noah. I am glad to see that. I think if they sign him to a very short 1 or 2 year contract, he helps this team. Gives them toughness. He was playing very well before he got hurt. He can run the floor, and plays defense. His energy and leadership was sorely missed. Is he the player he was in the past? No, but he is still better than some of the centers in the league. Now, if the Bulls let the league dictate how much he is worth, then they may lose him. Some team will over pay Noah for just a year or two to play for them. They much get him to agree to come to us first. One of either Niko or Taj will be traded. Gibson is someone I have really enjoyed watching play as a Bull down through the years, but at pf, Mirotic and Portis can play the position and score much more than Taj does at this time. Granted both will have to add muscle and toughness to their game as time goes on. As for who we trade for, I don't know at this time. His trade needs to be more than just a salary dump. Salary dumps need to be done less and less as time goes on. Was Mirotics 32 points a showcase for the sixers tonight? Could be. They have liked him in the past. If we trade Niko instead it had better be worth our while I doing so. Portis played well I thought for a rookie. Work more on his 3's, add muscle and continue to work on his D in the offseason. I don't see him being traded I want to resign Moore, and keep Holiday. I like what I saw from Justin in the short time he played for us. Moore should be the first guard off of the bench, and Holiday should be the 3rd, as well as the 3rd SF off of the bench as well. Keep Doug. But, he too has to get tougher and more muscle and play some defense. Having Noah back will help. I liked what I saw from Doug, except his defense. Teams attacked him on their end of the court and Fred needs to get players here that can help cover up his weaknesses on defense, but he also needs to work hard on it this off season himself. Rose Contract year coming up. I expect him to do better, but Paxson called him on defense. He is right. Rose needs to come back ready to play and prove to Fred and us he can still stay in front of his man. He needs to run the offense better. No more walking the ball up each and every play. Will he be traded? I don't see a trade being made unless it is by deadline. Derrick has a lot more to prove now than ever. The Brazlian kid surprised me. Keep him for next season. So our draft pick? We need a SF, Pg and if it seems like we will not get Noah back it could be a center. Will we keep our pick? I say yes, unless we package it with a player to move much higher. I look for the team to go through a two year transition of retooling. Summer of 2017 will be when some of the FA we would need come available. We have to see some improvement next year as well or else there will be no 2017. This summer should be a fun time to talk about the Bulls. I love the draft and the rumors before then and the FA afterward.
