In total agreement here. I'd be fine with signing him to a max deal for two years, but it's the idea of committing long-term to him that's worrying. Still, though, there's going to be a lot of money available this summer, and Dwight is really only competing with Horford for big money at the center position. A 19 PER center who can usually play 2200 minutes is a pretty valuable commodity to any team hoping to compete.
I'm certain we could get him; the question is should we try to get him? No, I wouldn't consider it at any price; even for a cheap $5 million per season. His production is decreasing at an accelerating rate. He has no basketball skills outside strength, size and athleticism. He has major injury history. He makes frustrating fundamental mistakes. He doesn't have any long term upside. Aging former superstars are the most difficult players to coach and to accept lesser roles. He wouldn't accept the Chris Kaman role happily and his production doesn't guarantee him a larger role. Better to miss an opportunity for a small gain than risk a major problem. I'd rather see us try to sign Boban, Gasol, Biyombo, Joakim, Mozgov, Mahimi, Sullinger, Ezeli, Speights, Al Jefferson, DMo, Zeller or even David West.
He was hurt in last years playoffs; he was one of their best players last regular season. The team played better with him in place of Dwight. He's been hurt throughout this season. He failed a physical two months ago causing the Pistons to rescind a trade for him.
I suspect Dwight ends up in Dallas. That's if he even opts out though. His value has declined so much he might opt in to cash in that final year at $20 million. He'd then force the Rockets to trade him. He probably believes he can play well and rebuild his value to earn a new huge contract from a new team. He's running low on franchises that'll have any interest in him. Center is the most overcrowded position in today's NBA. Times have certainly changed from when backup stiff's all got massive contracts.
Dwight is a shell of his old self. He now has inflated rebounds from the JJ Hickson effect; hoarding uncontested boards, stealing teammates rebounds, and not boxing out his man. Thats why the Rockets are 20th in rebounds even with their fast pace, but gave up more rebounds than all but 9 teams. They have the lowest defensive rebounding rate in the league at 72.8%. Dwights 11 RPG is fools gold which will only be worse next season. Run away, fast. Not to mention center is the deepest position on our roster; with Meyers we have three of them.
He still gives you 14pts/12 rebs/62%FG/1.6blocks. It's nowhere near his peak, but if he'd been putting up those numbers for the past decade he'd be considered much more desirable right now. As for having no skills outside of size/strength/athleticism, well, neither did Shaq, and he was still a putting up 17ppg when he was 36. At 30 years old, Dwight's best days may be behind him, but he's still got some good years left in him. I'm firmly in the camp that any team can tolerate one knucklehead, and may even benefit from it. I'd rather Horford or Ezeli, but I could see Howard as an option.
I'm sure Dwight can put up stats; but does it make the team better? His last two years in Orlando his team was #1 and #2 in defensive rebounding rate. This year the Rockets were #30. I don't want my favorite team to get players that put up meaningless stats and cost the team wins. Shaquille Oneal in Phoenix is a great example. They won 10 more games the year prior and the year after. He put up stats but hurt the team. Those Suns missed the playoffs. The next year when he left they made the conference finals.
That talent might work for a short while but sooner or later when things get a little tough, it falls apart because of the lack of chemistry and cohesiveness. Plus, when your star player has NOT INTEREST in playing defense, that eventually wears on the rest of the team. At least Dame tries.
I'm rethinking my answers above and want to answer it a bit differently. Considering what rockets do in real life, they don't suck.... They blow.
My only problem with Howard is how much he hates playing in the P&R. He needs the ball fed to him in the post. We've all learned recently how inefficient that is -- especially with dominant P&R scorers like CJ and Dame.
It's 100% shit chemistry, which stems from the lack of a competent leader. If you look at Howard for example there is not a shred of leadership with him, things got tough in LA and he just ran. Harden shows absolutely zero concept of how to lead a team and IIRC most players in the league think he's just a weird dude. Their big addition they have made 2 years in a row is Josh Smith who has a track record of leaving teams and those teams getting better while his new team goes down. The chemistry and build of this team is so nasty it got McHale fired really early in the season. Houston is just a horrific mix of ill fitting guys with zero leadership surrounded by very average players (Beverly, Ariza etc...etc...)
I've said this in other threads, but their offense is built around Harden and his game is flawed because of his reliance on getting to the line. If his entire game is built around drawing fouls, and fouls are harder to come by in the playoffs, especially towards the end of a game when it really matters, it will make it more difficult to succeed. Look at his game last night - He scored 28 points, but he only shot 7-19 from the floor. He got 13 points from the free throw line in that game. Harden led the league in free throw attempts during the regular season. He relies so heavily on getting to the line, and that's just not something you can count on in the playoffs. I honestly feel like Harden is by far the most manufactured star in the league. Can you imagine what Dame would average if he was getting the 10 FTA per game that Harden got this season? He's currently averaging 25 ppg with around 5 points off free throws. If he had the 10 FTA that Harden gets, and shot his usual 90% from the line, he would be averaging around 29 ppg.
I would really not want Dwight Howard on the Blazers. He has gone in a few years from #1 Free Agent to "will someone please get this guy off my hands". I can handle declining skills with age; an aging player has other things he can bring to the team. But he, by all accounts, is just a jerk. Pardon my unscientific description.
