Plumlee Playoff Rebounding

Discussion in 'Portland Trail Blazers' started by Reep, Apr 28, 2016.

  1. Reep

    Reep Well-Known Member

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    Do you think he has improved his game, or is this just what happens when you play a really poor rebounding team? Right now Plumlee is third in the playoffs for rebounding (Aminu is 9th).

    I'm curious if Plumlee has found another gear and might hit 10+ next year or if he is just benefiting from taking advantage of another teams weakness.
     
  2. Schilly

    Schilly Well-Known Member

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    I think to an extent Plumlee is better than his stats indicate because he really hasn't been paired with a PF that compliments his game as much.
     
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  3. Natebishop3

    Natebishop3 Don't tread on me!

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    Part of his jump in rebounding is how the Clips are defending Lillard. Jordan has been trapping Dame out on the perimeter, which pulls him away from the basket, which makes it easier for Plumlee to get rebounds.
     
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  4. BBert

    BBert Weasels Ripped My Flesh

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    I think it's a combination of Plumlee's ability and approach to the game, and opportunity. The opportunity is the circumstance of the Clippers strategy (Edit: what Nate said). But it all starts with Plumlee's ability, mobility and athleticism, nose for the ball, and desire to fly around and get it.
     
  5. Boob-No-More

    Boob-No-More Why you no hire big man coach?

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    There are many factors at play, but Plumlee's offensive rebounding has not increased dramatically in the playoffs due to Jordan double teaming Lillard. His offensive rebounding has remained very close to what it was during the regular season.

    Regular Season:
    ORB% = 10.4
    ORB/36 = 3.5

    Playoffs:
    ORB% = 10.8
    ORB/36 = 4.0

    So, a very minor, almost negligible, uptick on offensive rebounding.

    Where is rebounding has shown a massive increase is on the defensive end.

    Regular Season:
    DRB% = 22.2
    DRB/36 = 7.4

    Playoffs:
    DRB% = 33.1
    DRB/36 = 12.2

    That's a HUGE jump in defensive rebounding.

    In raw stats, Plumlee has seen his playing time increased by nearly 4 MPG compared to the regular season. That helps his rebounds per game, but does not explain the huge increase in DRB% and DRB/36. As mentioned, the Clippers are a poor rebounding team (28th in the league in both team ORB% and team DRB% during the regular season). I think part of that is they use their best rebounder to set on the ball screens out beyond the 3-point line. With Deandre Jordan that far from the basket, and a complete non-threat to score more than 3 feet from the basket, that allows Mason Plumlee to sag back and Hoover up a shit ton of defensive rebounds.

    Throw in the fact that the Clippers are missing a lot more shots per game in this series than the regular season and there are more defensive rebounds available. During the regular season the Clippers averaged 44 missed FGAs per game. In Game 1, the Clippers as a team shot .538 FG% and only missed 36 FGA. It's not surprising that Plumlee grabbed his series low of only 5 rebounds (3 DRB) in that game. There just weren't that many defensive rebounds available in that game. Now look at Games 2 - 7:

    Game 2:
    LAC missed FGA = 47
    Mason Plumlee TRB = 10
    Mason Plumlee DRB = 8

    Game 3:
    LAC missed FGA = 52
    Mason Plumlee TRB = 21
    Mason Plumlee DRB = 18

    Game 4:
    LAC missed FGA = 54
    Mason Plumlee TRB = 14
    Mason Plumlee DRB = 9

    Game 5:
    LAC missed FGA = 50
    Mason Plumlee TRB = 15
    Mason Plumlee DRB = 11

    With the Clippers missing an average of almost 51 shots per game in Games 2 - 5, there are simply a lot more defensive rebounds to be had. Combine that with more minutes played and the fact that the Clippers are a weak rebounding team and you see Plumlee's huge uptick in total rebounds.

    To answer the OP's question, no I don't think this is sustainable over an entire regular season. I'd love to see Plumlee prove me wrong and average over 10 RPG next year, but right now he's taking advantage of a unique set of circumstance (same for his ridiculous assist totals in this series), but he's an intelligent player with a great motor and good athleticism, so anything is possible.

    BNM
     
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  6. Denny Crane

    Denny Crane It's not even loaded! Staff Member Administrator

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    He's playing with a small ball lineup. Aminu and Harkless are SF by trade.

    It could be he gets extra rebounds because he's taller and the SFs want to sprint down court to fast break.
     
  7. Boob-No-More

    Boob-No-More Why you no hire big man coach?

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    Aminu and Harkless have also seen their rebounding increase in the playoffs. Aminu is averaging 9.4 RPG in the playoffs (9th best in the entire league) compared to 6.1 RPG during the regular season. Harkless is up to 6.8 RPG in the playoffs compared to the regular season, compared to just 3.6 RPG in the regular season but he's also playing a lot more minutes.

    The advanced and per 36 minutes stats give a more accurate picture:

    Aminu Regular Season:
    TRB% = 11.5
    TRB/36 = 7.7

    Aminu Playoffs:
    TRB% = 14.4
    TRB/36 = 10.6

    Harkless Regular Season:

    TRB% = 10.4
    TRB/36 = 6.9

    Harkless Playoffs:
    TRB% = 11.6
    TRB/36 = 8.6

    Both players have also increased their rebounding significantly in the playoffs, especially Aminu. Again this appears to be due to playing against a weak rebounding opponent that is missing a lot of shots.

    BNM
     
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  8. Reep

    Reep Well-Known Member

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    Except for Aminu being 9th in the playoffs in rebounding. And Harkless is obviously no slouch on the boards. Yes, many of those are offensive though.

    I agree it is likely a combination of extra opportunities and a bit of Plumlee realizing how important rebounds are in this series.
     
  9. Denny Crane

    Denny Crane It's not even loaded! Staff Member Administrator

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    Stotts has noticeably had his players go for offensive rebounds, aggressively.

    The Clippers are also missing Blake Griffin and started, who?, last game at F? Crawford and Pierce.
     
  10. riverman

    riverman Writing Team

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    We missed a lot of jumpers in this series..those are rebound stocking stuffers everytime
     
  11. H.C.

    H.C. Well-Known Member

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    Giving DJ too much credit there BNB. 3 feet from the basket is still a little out of his range I think.
    :bgrin:
     
  12. Boob-No-More

    Boob-No-More Why you no hire big man coach?

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    As I said in my first post, Plumlee's offensive rebounding hasn't increased significantly in the playoffs compared to the regular season (3.5 ORB/36 to 4.0 ORB/36). It's on the defensive glass that his production has exploded (7.4 DRB/36 to 12.2 DRB/36). That's a increase of nearly 5 defensive rebounds per 36 minutes. That's a HUGE increase.

    As a team, our ORB% has only increased by 1 percentage point in this series compared to the regular season (from 25.9 to 26.9). We are controlling the defensive boards, keeping the Clippers off the offensive glass and limiting their second chance points.

    BNM
     
  13. Boob-No-More

    Boob-No-More Why you no hire big man coach?

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    I know. I remember seeing a stat somewhere last season where something like 85% of Jordan's FGA were from 1 foot or less.

    BNM
     
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  14. Orion Bailey

    Orion Bailey Forum Troll

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    I'm not buying the weak rebounding opponent. Not when Jordan is 2nd in the entire league.
     
  15. KingSpeed

    KingSpeed Veteran

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    He's just one player. As a team, they are below average.
     
  16. Orion Bailey

    Orion Bailey Forum Troll

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    Yeah, but he is one very dominant paint player. Okay, so Ill buy it for the other guys, but not for Plums. He earned his against one of the best paint guys there are.
     
  17. KingSpeed

    KingSpeed Veteran

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    I believe we were 5th in the league in rebounding this season.
     
  18. Orion Bailey

    Orion Bailey Forum Troll

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    Yeah but I think more in large part to Ed Davis. Not Plums. Plums has seriously taken it to the next level while simultaneously battling one of the best in the game and 2nd best in the playoffs.

    Just saying that Plums turned it up when it counted most and did it against one of the best in the league in the paint.
     
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  19. KingSpeed

    KingSpeed Veteran

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    No doubt. Plumlee rules. But HCP says that Lillard is our only starter-level talent and laughed at me when I said Plumlee was a Team USA center which he is.
     
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  20. Orion Bailey

    Orion Bailey Forum Troll

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    Well you and I both know there were some ill advised criticisms of this team coming into the season made by more than just one person, but its all good unless they are actually bummed they were wrong. :)
     

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