CJ's third year is a mirror image of Lillard's second

Discussion in 'Portland Trail Blazers' started by mook, Mar 6, 2016.

  1. Strenuus

    Strenuus Global Moderator Staff Member Global Moderator

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    And this is coming from someone who refs the damn game.

    /discussion
     
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  2. mook

    mook The 2018-19 season was the best I've seen

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    Just bumping this to see if it held through the playoffs.

    Seems like his playoffs were about the same as well. Less scoring and assists, and lower shooting efficiency though.

    Both guys were on teams that went 11 games into the playoffs as well, with Lillard going against Houston and then SA, while we went Clips/GS. Both with gentlemen's sweeps in the second round. So kind of an easier opening round and then a really brutal second round opponent. Each guy was the second best player on the team through the playoffs.

    We don't talk about CJ's upside a lot because he's been so polished, much like Dame that year. But it's interesting to think about whether he can be a 25-26ppg scorer like Dame in another year or two.
     
    Last edited: Jun 7, 2016
  3. Rastapopoulos

    Rastapopoulos Well-Known Member

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    What's "VORP" exactly, and why is Lillard so much higher in it?
     
  4. Boob-No-More

    Boob-No-More Why you no hire big man coach?

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    It's one of the measurements they take at the re-draft combine. It's the measure of alcohol tolerance (Volume of Rum Punch). It's basically how many pints of rum punch a player can consume before they can no longer pass a sobriety test.

    Because, he drinks like a fish.

    BNM
     
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  5. Boob-No-More

    Boob-No-More Why you no hire big man coach?

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    Ok, that wasn't very helpful. The full formula and a detailed explanation can be found here.

    The complicated part is calculating BPM, once you have that VORP (Value Over Replacement Player) is easy:

    "So, to calculate VORP, the formula is simply: [BPM – (-2.0)] * (% of minutes played)*(team games/82). This yields the number of points the player is producing over a replacement player, per 100 TEAM possessions over an entire season."

    I also found this tidbit interesting:

    "The beauty of VORP is that like WAR in baseball, it should track linearly with salary. A player with a VORP of 4.0 is worth, on the market, about twice what a player of VORP 2.0 is worth. Sometimes good players play few minutes for reasons outside their control, and would be worth more because they should be getting more minutes. Still, for a crude estimate, VORP is valuable. It does measure fairly accurately what a player did produce in terms of value for a given team."

    BNM
     
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  6. Rastapopoulos

    Rastapopoulos Well-Known Member

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    Re: VORP:

    I dimly recall someone explaining this to me before. And me objecting: "but doesn't that make it dependent on the quality of your teammates"?
     
  7. Tunchi

    Tunchi Well-Known Member

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    Hey ya know how I feel

    Glad we have both !
     
  8. Boob-No-More

    Boob-No-More Why you no hire big man coach?

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    No, it doesn't.

    It's true that if only individual stats were used, it would depend on the quality of your teammates. For example, DeAndre Jordan's TS% is higher with Chris Paul throwing him lobs than it would be if his starting PG was Nolan Smith. Likewise, Draymond Green's AST% benefits because he plays with Steph Curry and Klay Thompson instead of Ish Smith and Nik Stauskas.

    However, you must have missed the section titled The Team Summation at the link I provided. It uses advanced team stats to attempt to normalize a players individual contributions as if he played on league average team, instead of his actual team.

    I'm sure it's not perfect, none of these one-stat-to-rule-them-all stats are, but this on made an effort to account for variables like team performance, strength of schedule, pace, etc. If there is weakness to BPM and VORP it's that there is even more advanced data available for recent seasons, but the creators of these stats chose to ignore that data to be able to use their one-size-fits-all stats for historic comparisons. So, they had to rely on historically available data to achieve that goal.

    BNM
     
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